The Euro took a break. Overview for 08.07.2020

The major currency pair is barely moving on Wednesday morning; the market is dead calm.

EURUSD is standing still in the middle of the week – it seems like somebody just turned “volatility” off. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1270.

Yesterday’s statistics have already been taken into account – the German Industrial Production recovered by 7.8% m/m in May against the expected reading of +11.0% m/m. Well. it’s worse than expected but the indicator is slowly eliminating its spring declines, and that’s still good. 

After quarantine restrictions were removed, German consumers started spending money. It can be clearly seen in this week’s reports, including the Retail Sales. The country was betting on domestic demand and so far, this bet “pays off”. People are buying cloth and footwear, gadgets, home appliances, fuel as the started using their cars more. In May, domestic consumption lost only 5% in comparison with May 2019, which is a pretty solid reading given the current circumstances. 

The difference between dynamics in the industrial production and retails sales – a divergence basically – may be some kind of signal for mid-term forecasts, which indicates that too slow recovery in the production sector may eventually damage the labor market and, as a result, backfire to consumer spending.  

There are no numbers from Europe today. As for the American statistics, one should pay attention to the Consumer Credit in May, which is expected to significantly improved if compared with April. In general, it seems like today’s trading session is completely intended for consolidations in traded currency pairs unless something unexpected happens.