The Aussie is retreating. Overview for 28.09.2021

AUDUSD is falling on Tuesday after a couple of bullish trading sessions. 

The Australian Dollar is falling against the USD despite investors’ huge risk appetite. The current quote for the instrument is 0.7270.

The Retail Sales in Australia lost 1.7% m/m in August after dropping 2.7% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of -2.5% m/m. The indicator has been falling for the third consecutive month and market players can't help but notice it. 

The retail sales sector provides about 18% of the Australian GDP, so it’s difficult to overestimate its value. In September, the indicator is also expected to decline, in all big regions from Sidney to Melbourne. The reason is quite simple: social restrictions are still in effect in these areas and they put a lot of pressure on consumer activity. 

A relatively slow anti-coronavirus campaign creates a problem of collective immunity development in Australia. The situation is quite good only in South Wales, where 60% of adults are fully vaccinated and 65% got at least one dose. Here, the GDP for the third quarter may be positive, in other regions – quite unlikely.

In general, the Australian economy is expected to decline significantly in the third quarter due to social restrictions re-introduced after another wave of the pandemic.