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<\/span><\/a>Looking back: the S&P 500 performance in recent years<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
According to TradeThatSwing<\/a>, the average annual return for the S&P 500 from September 1973 to September 2023 inclusive is 10.75% if unadjusted for inflation<\/a> and 6.59% if adjusted for inflation. From 1998 to 2022 inclusive, the maximum index return of 30% was recorded at the end of 2013. The minimum value for the same period was seen at the end of 2008, standing at −38%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The average annual return for the S&P 500 from September 2018 to September 2023 inclusive reached 10.49% if unadjusted and 7.28% if adjusted for inflation. It can be assumed that the index value could have been higher if stock performance in 2020 were not characterised by the high volatility<\/a> caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, it was negatively affected by both a bearish market and a high inflation level in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
$\"S&P$
S&P 500 returns, 2000–2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/span><\/a>Global economic factors influencing the S&P 500<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.<\/strong> Interest rate<\/a> changes may impact borrowing costs for companies, affecting profits and investment decisions<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Global economic growth.<\/strong> This usually has a positive impact on companies’ profits and contributes to index growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Exchange rates.<\/strong> The strengthening of the US dollar may adversely affect profits of US companies with a significant share of global operations<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Corporate reporting.<\/strong> Positive quarterly and annual reports may drive up stocks of the S&P 500 companies, creating favourable conditions for index growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Important political events in the country.<\/strong> For example, tax reforms or regulation changes may have a substantial effect on the stock market, and hence the index<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Energy source prices.<\/strong> Changes in oil and gas prices may affect the energy sector, and index quotes<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Geopolitical events.<\/strong> For example, a war may lead to uncertainty and volatility in financial markets<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Market sentiments and investor behaviour.<\/strong> For instance, speculative activity may influence the movements of the index quotes<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n
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<\/span>Key markets driving the performance of the S&P 500<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
According to the Visual Capitalist<\/a> portal, the main drivers of growth for the S&P 500 index were the following sectors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Communication Services: +44%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Technology: +43%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Consumer Staples: +33%<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Industrials: +10%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
$\"Top$
Top S&P 500 sectors in 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<\/a>Expert predictions: analysts' views on the S&P 500 in 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Goldman Sachs<\/a> Research experts forecast<\/a> US stocks will bring modest gains next year as economic growth, which exceeds the consensus, is partly offset by high stock prices. They predict the S&P 500 will rise to 4,700 points by the end of 2024, marking a growth of approximately 4% from current values and overall returns of about 6%, including dividends<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n
Reuters polls<\/a> show that the S&P 500 will end 2024 at 4,700 points, with a possible US economic slowdown or recession considered among the most significant risks for the market next year<\/li>\n\n\n\n
Bank of America<\/a>’s specialists expect<\/a> lower global inflation to allow central banks to cut rates, thereby enabling the index to reach a record level of 5,000 points by the end of 2024<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
<\/span>Technical analysis: chart patterns and price movements<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n

<\/span><\/a>The S&P 500 eligibility criteria<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\nMarket capitalisation is greater than or equal to 14.5 billion USD<\/li>\n\n\n\nAt least 50% of shares should be available for public trading<\/li>\n\n\n\n