RBA interest rate<\/a> decision (Tuesday, August 11): the rate is expected to stay at 4.35%, so the wording of the statement decides whether AUD\/USD<\/a> can extend toward 0.7100.<\/li>\n
US CPI<\/a> (Wednesday, August 12): the defining release of the week; a softer core reading keeps the Fed easing path open and adds pressure on the dollar.<\/li>\n
UK GDP for Q2 (Thursday, August 13): a sharp slowdown would revive Bank of England easing expectations and stall the recent recovery in GBP\/USD<\/a>.<\/li>\n
US retail sales (Friday, August 14): the test of whether household spending is holding up while hiring slows.<\/li>\n

University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday, August 14): the inflation expectations component shapes how the market reads Wednesday's CPI.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n

Wednesday is the anchor of the week. After the soft jobs report, the market has already moved a long way toward pricing a milder Fed path, so the core inflation reading carries more weight than the headline figure. An upside surprise would force fast repricing across stocks, bonds and the dollar within minutes of the release.<\/p>\n

Friday closes the week with the American consumer in focus. Retail sales and the preliminary Michigan index together show whether spending and household confidence are following the labour market lower, and that combination determines how investors interpret the weak payrolls data from the start of August.<\/p>\n\n

<\/span>Key Events of the Week<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Date<\/th>\n Event<\/th>\n Instruments<\/th>\n Importance<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Tue, Aug 11<\/td>\n RBA Interest Rate Decision<\/td>\n AUD\/USD, Australian bonds, ASX 200<\/td>\n ●●● High<\/span><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Wed, Aug 12<\/td>\n US CPI and Core CPI<\/td>\n S&P 500, EUR\/USD<\/a>, US Treasuries<\/td>\n ●●● High<\/span><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Thu, Aug 13<\/td>\n UK GDP, Q2 preliminary estimate<\/td>\n GBP\/USD, FTSE 100, UK gilts<\/td>\n ●● Medium<\/span><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Fri, Aug 14<\/td>\n US Retail Sales<\/td>\n S&P 500, EUR\/USD, US Treasuries<\/td>\n ●● Medium<\/span><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Fri, Aug 14<\/td>\n Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary<\/td>\n S&P 500, USD Index<\/a>, Gold<\/a><\/td>\n ●● Medium<\/span><\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n<\/div>\n\n
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11<\/div>\n
Aug<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Australia · Monetary Policy · Tuesday<\/div>\n
<\/span>RBA Interest Rate Decision<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Rate Forecast<\/div>\n
4.35%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
4.35%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
The RBA decision is the main event of the week for the Australian dollar. The cash rate is expected to stay at 4.35%, so the market reaction will depend on the wording of the statement and on how the regulator assesses inflation risks. The NAB business confidence index, released several hours earlier, adds context by showing how Australian companies see demand and cost pressure right now.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
A firm position from the RBA with emphasis on inflation risks would support the Australian dollar and allow AUD\/USD to work toward new local highs. A softer tone from the regulator would widen expectations of a future rate cut and create conditions for a correction after the strong advance of recent weeks.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
AUD\/USD approaches the meeting in a strong position<\/strong>: the pair has climbed above 0.7060 and returned close to the upper edge of its current range. No change in the rate is expected, so the deciding factor becomes the balance between persistent inflation risks and the signs of a cooling economy. After the sizeable move in the Australian dollar, the market needs a sufficiently firm signal from the RBA for the advance to continue. On the chart, AUD\/USD keeps clear upward momentum<\/a> and trades near the upper Bollinger band. MACD<\/a> is turning up again, while Stochastic<\/a> has approached overbought territory. A close above 0.7075 opens the way toward 0.7100, and a softer RBA message would trigger a pullback to 0.7020.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n
$\"AUD\/USD$ <\/a>
Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Key Levels — AUD\/USD<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Level<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 0.7075 \/ 0.7100<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 0.7020 \/ 0.6980<\/td><\/tr>\n
Target<\/td> 0.7100<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n\n
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12<\/div>\n
Aug<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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USA · Inflation · Wednesday<\/div>\n
<\/span>US Consumer Price Index<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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CPI Forecast<\/div>\n
3.4% y\/y<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
3.5% y\/y<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Core CPI Forecast<\/div>\n
2.5% y\/y<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
2.6% y\/y<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
After the weak labour market data, July CPI becomes the main test for Fed policy expectations. The market will look for confirmation that price pressure keeps easing and gives the regulator room to soften policy. Core inflation carries the most weight in this release: it excludes volatile food and energy prices, so it shows how durable the underlying price pressure really is.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
Inflation below expectations would strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts, support the stock market and add pressure on the dollar. A stronger CPI would cast doubt on quick policy easing, push Treasury yields higher and trigger a correction in US stocks.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
Positioning ahead of the release is tilted toward softer inflation<\/strong>. After the weak employment report, the balance of expectations shifted noticeably toward milder Fed policy, so market sensitivity to CPI will be especially high. At the same time the S&P 500 already sits at record highs and EUR\/USD has risen sharply, which means part of the favourable scenario is priced in. Continuation of the move requires confirmation that inflation is slowing steadily, while an unexpected acceleration in CPI creates the risk of fast profit-taking. On the chart, the S&P 500 accelerated and settled above its previous local highs. MACD shows strong positive momentum, though Stochastic sits above 90 points and points to pronounced overbought conditions. Soft inflation would allow the index to continue toward the upper Bollinger band near 784 points, while a strong CPI raises the risk of a return to the 765-755 area.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n
$\"S&P$ <\/a>
Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n