{"id":22074,"date":"2026-09-30T09:41:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T06:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/?p=22074"},"modified":"2026-09-30T09:54:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T06:54:36","slug":"tesla-stock-forecast-2026-q3-deliveries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/analysis\/tesla-stock-forecast-2026-q3-deliveries\/","title":{"rendered":"Tesla Stock Forecast 2026: Will Q3 Deliveries Push TSLA Below 353 USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC \"-\/\/W3C\/\/DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional\/\/EN\" \"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/TR\/REC-html40\/loose.dtd\">\n<html><body><div class=\"ts-wrap\">\n<div class=\"ts\">\n\n  <p>This <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/beginners\/info\/charts\/stocks\/TSLA\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"275\" title=\"Tesla Inc\">Tesla<\/a> stock forecast 2026 trade idea is built around 2 October, when Tesla reports its Q3 2026 deliveries. Sales in Europe are recovering while Chinese rivals grow even faster, and the EU decision on FSD has slipped to December at the earliest. On the chart TSLA stays in a downtrend, and the idea sells only after a break of support at 353 USD.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-facts\">\n    <div class=\"ts-fact\"><div class=\"ts-fact-label\">Driver<\/div><div class=\"ts-fact-text\">Q3 deliveries on 2 October, forecast at about 463,000 cars, below last year's record<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-fact\"><div class=\"ts-fact-label\">Europe<\/div><div class=\"ts-fact-text\">EU-wide FSD vote moved to December at the earliest, Chinese rivals growing faster<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-fact\"><div class=\"ts-fact-label\">Analysts<\/div><div class=\"ts-fact-text\">17 of 41 rate TSLA a Buy, targets from 123 to 600 USD<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-fact\"><div class=\"ts-fact-label\">Caution<\/div><div class=\"ts-fact-text\">A delivery beat can lift the stock, so the entry waits for a break of support<\/div><\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; TRADE PARAMS &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"trade-params\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Trade_Idea_Parameters\"><\/span>Trade Idea Parameters<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Below are the specific parameters for the Tesla Inc trade idea. The ticker for trading via <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/terminals\/webtrader\/\" target=\"_blank\">RoboForex MobileTrader<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/platforms\/metatrader5-mt5\/\" target=\"_blank\">MT5<\/a> on RoboForex is <strong>TSLA<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-table-wrap\">\n    <table class=\"rf\">\n      <thead>\n        <tr><th>Parameter<\/th><th>Value<\/th><\/tr>\n      <\/thead>\n      <tbody>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Instrument<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"num\">Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Ticker in MobileTrader \/ MT5<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"num\">TSLA<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Idea Date<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\">September 29, 2026<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Time Horizon<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\">3 months<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Direction<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"sell\">&darr; Sell (Short)<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Entry Level (trigger)<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\">351.00 USD, <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/pending-orders-learning-buy-limit-and-sell-limit-buy-stop-and-sell-stop\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"198\" title=\"Pending orders\">Sell Stop<\/a><\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/what-is-stop-loss-and-take-profit\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"56\" title=\"Take Profit\">Take Profit<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"pos\">325.00 USD<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/what-is-stop-loss-and-take-profit\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"228\" title=\"Stop Loss\">Stop Loss<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"stop\">361.00 USD<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Risk \/ Reward Ratio<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"num\">1 : 2.6<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Parameter\">Risk per Trade<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"warn\">No more than 3% of account &middot; Medium risk<\/td><\/tr>\n      <\/tbody>\n    <\/table>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- PROMO 1 -->\n  <div class=\"ts-promo\">\n    <div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-title\">Instant Access to Global Markets with RoboForex MobileTrader<\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-sub\">Everything you need for trading in one app: <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/assets\/stocks\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"10\" title=\"invest in stocks\">stocks<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/assets\/indices\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"11\" title=\"indices trading\">indices<\/a>, metals, oil, currencies.<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-promo-actions\">\n      <a class=\"ts-promo-btn-tg\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/RoboForexMobileTraderBot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>\n      <a class=\"ts-promo-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/mobiletrader.onelink.me\/MuKg\/rfbannerandroid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Google Play<\/a>\n      <a class=\"ts-promo-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/mobiletrader.onelink.me\/MuKg\/rfbannerios\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">App Store<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; THE NEWS &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"q3-and-fsd\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Tesla_Q3_Deliveries_and_the_EU_Delay_on_FSD\"><\/span>Tesla Q3 Deliveries and the EU Delay on FSD<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Tesla is scheduled to publish its Q3 2026 deliveries on 2 October. After a sharp rise in the second quarter, the new figure will show whether demand held up, and the comparison with the record Q3 2025 will show whether Tesla has returned to growth year on year.<\/p>\n  <p>The second story is in Europe. On 25 September it <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/eu-vote-teslas-supervised-self-driving-system-pushed-back-2026-09-25\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">emerged<\/a> that the EU automotive committee will only continue discussing Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) application at its 6 October meeting, and the expected vote will not take place. The application stays open, and the delay keeps Tesla from offering FSD across the whole European market at a time of growing competition.<\/p>\n  <p>The deliveries will show where demand for Tesla cars stands now. The FSD decision shapes how far Tesla can build on its European sales in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\n\n  <figure class=\"ts-fig ts-tl-wrap\">\n    <div class=\"ts-fig-title\">Five dates inside the three-month horizon of this idea<\/div>\n    <ol class=\"ts-tl\">\n      <li class=\"ts-tl-item ts-tl-meta ts-tl-now\">\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-year\">29 September<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-dot\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-card\"><span class=\"ts-tl-badge\">Now<\/span><strong>Idea date<\/strong>TSLA closed at 357 USD on 28 September.<\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"ts-tl-item ts-tl-meta\">\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-year\">2 October<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-dot\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-card\"><strong>Q3 2026 deliveries<\/strong>The FactSet average estimate is about 463,000 cars.<\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"ts-tl-item\">\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-year\">6 October<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-dot\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-card\"><strong>EU automotive committee<\/strong>The FSD application is discussed, with no vote.<\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"ts-tl-item ts-tl-meta\">\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-year\">About 28 October<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-dot\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-card\"><strong>Q3 2026 results<\/strong>Revenue and net profit behind the delivery figures.<\/div>\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"ts-tl-item\">\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-year\">December at the earliest<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-dot\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-tl-card\"><strong>Next chance of an EU vote<\/strong>On FSD, under the current calendar.<\/div>\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ol>\n    <figcaption class=\"ts-fig-cap\">Dates from the analyst's brief. The 28 October results date is approximate.<\/figcaption>\n  <\/figure>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; DELIVERIES FORECAST &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"deliveries-forecast\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Tesla_Q3_2026_Deliveries_Forecast\"><\/span>Tesla Q3 2026 Deliveries Forecast<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>FactSet data <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/tesla-stock-price-deliveries-roadster-spacex-merger-4bb9ce44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">cited<\/a> by Barron's puts the average expectation for Tesla deliveries at about 463,000 cars. That would be 3.6% fewer than in Q2 2026 and 6.9% fewer than in Q3 2025. Estimates vary widely: StoneX expects about 446,500 cars and <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/beginners\/info\/charts\/stocks\/JPM\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"255\" title=\"JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co\">JPMorgan<\/a> about 482,000. The spread shows how hard it is to judge how durable demand for Tesla cars is right now, and even the most optimistic forecast stays below the Q3 2025 result.<\/p>\n\n  <figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-1-scaled.png\"><img height=\"1408\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"2560\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-1-scaled.png\" alt=\"Tesla worldwide quarterly vehicle deliveries from Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, with the FactSet estimate for Q3 2026\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Tesla worldwide vehicle deliveries by quarter, Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, and the Q3 2026 estimate. Source: Tesla Investor Relations; Q3 2026 estimate: FactSet via Barron's. Past results do not guarantee future performance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n  <p>The report is expected on 2 October, and the market will judge it in two steps: first the actual figure against the average forecast of 463,000, then against last year's 497,099. The reaction depends on where the result lands.<\/p>\n\n  <figure class=\"ts-fig ts-sc\">\n    <div class=\"ts-fig-title\">Q3 2026 deliveries: three outcomes and what each one means for this idea<\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-sc-scale\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Scale of Q3 2026 delivery outcomes from 440,000 to 505,000 cars. Estimates: StoneX 446,500, FactSet 463,000, JPMorgan 482,000. Reported: Q2 2026 480,126, Q3 2025 record 497,099.\">\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-row ts-sc-top\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-m ts-sc-p1\"><span>StoneX<\/span><b>446,500<\/b><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-m ts-sc-p2 ts-sc-key\"><span>FactSet<\/span><b>463,000<\/b><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-m ts-sc-p4\"><span>JPMorgan<\/span><b>482,000<\/b><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-bar\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-z ts-sc-z1\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-z ts-sc-z2\"><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-z ts-sc-z3\"><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-row ts-sc-bot\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-m ts-sc-p3\"><b>480,126<\/b><span>Q2 2026<\/span><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-m ts-sc-p5 ts-sc-key\"><b>497,099<\/b><span>Q3 2025<\/span><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-legend\"><span>Above the bar: forecasts<\/span><span>Below the bar: reported deliveries<\/span><\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-sc-zones\">\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-card ts-sc-c1\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-range\">Below 463,000<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-verdict\">Negative for the stock<\/div>\n        <p>Demand is falling faster than expected. This outcome supports the short scenario and a break of 353 USD.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-card ts-sc-c2\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-range\">463,000 to 497,099<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-verdict\">Moderately positive<\/div>\n        <p>Better than forecasts, still below last year. The main risk for this idea: support at 353 USD may hold for longer.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-sc-card ts-sc-c3\">\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-range\">Above 497,099<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-sc-verdict\">Strongly positive<\/div>\n        <p>Record deliveries could send the stock sharply higher. The short scenario loses its fundamental case.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <figcaption class=\"ts-fig-cap\">Estimates from FactSet, StoneX and JPMorgan via Barron's; reported figures from Tesla. Scale from 440,000 to 505,000 cars.<\/figcaption>\n  <\/figure>\n\n  <p>The financial side of these deliveries, revenue and net profit, arrives later: Tesla's full Q3 2026 results are expected around 28 October.<\/p>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; EUROPE &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"europe\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Tesla_Gains_Ground_in_Europe_as_Competition_Grows\"><\/span>Tesla Gains Ground in Europe as Competition Grows<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Europe gives Tesla an important signal of strong demand for electric cars. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acea.auto\/files\/Press_release_car_registrations_August_2026.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">ACEA data<\/a>, 142,165 Tesla cars were registered in the EU in January to August 2026, 65.9% more than in the same period last year. Over the same months the EU market for battery-electric cars grew 44.9% to 1.64 million vehicles, and their share of all new cars reached 21.7%.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-kpis\">\n    <div class=\"ts-kpi\"><div class=\"ts-kpi-val\">+65.9%<\/div><div class=\"ts-kpi-lbl\">Tesla registrations in the EU, to 142,165 cars<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-kpi\"><div class=\"ts-kpi-val\">+44.9%<\/div><div class=\"ts-kpi-lbl\">EU battery-electric market, to 1.64 million cars<\/div><\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-kpi\"><div class=\"ts-kpi-val\">21.7%<\/div><div class=\"ts-kpi-lbl\">Battery-electric share of all new cars in the EU<\/div><\/div>\n  <\/div>\n  <p class=\"ts-kpi-note\">January to August 2026 against the same period of 2025. Source: ACEA.<\/p>\n\n  <figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-2.png\"><img height=\"1318\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"2304\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-2.png\" alt=\"EU new car registrations of BYD, SAIC Motor, Tesla and Chery in January to August 2026, with year-on-year change\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">EU new car registrations by manufacturer, January to August 2026. All powertrains included; Tesla sells battery-electric cars only. Source: ACEA. Past results do not guarantee future performance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n  <p>Competition is growing just as fast as demand. Over the same eight months Chinese carmakers made a strong push in the EU. Their figures cover all powertrains, while Tesla sells only battery-electric cars:<\/p>\n  <ul>\n    <li><strong>BYD:<\/strong> 177,752 registrations, +163.0% year on year<\/li>\n    <li><strong>SAIC Motor:<\/strong> 163,707 registrations, +19.8% year on year<\/li>\n    <li><strong>Chery Automobile:<\/strong> 116,318 registrations, +250.9% year on year<\/li>\n  <\/ul>\n  <p>Tesla's sales in Europe are growing faster than the electric car market, and holding its position is getting harder. Two things make the recovery difficult to lock in: Chinese rivals expanding faster than the market, and the slow path to EU-wide approval of FSD, which postpones an extra advantage Tesla could offer across the whole EU.<\/p>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; FSD &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"fsd\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FSD_Remains_a_Key_Factor_for_Tesla_in_Europe\"><\/span>FSD Remains a Key Factor for Tesla in Europe<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Tesla has a way to set its cars apart in the European market: the Full Self-Driving driver assistance system. After more than 18 months of testing, the Dutch regulator RDW <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rdw.nl\/en\/news\/2026\/rdw-explanation-of-european-type-approval-tesla-with-provisional-validity-in-the-netherlands\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">approved<\/a> its use in the Netherlands on 10 April 2026. FSD is supervised driver assistance: the driver has to watch the road and stays responsible for driving. Several other European countries then <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/france-opposes-eu-approval-teslas-fsd-driver-assistance-software-now-2026-07-23\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">allowed<\/a> the system, while EU-wide approval is still pending.<\/p>\n  <p>Tesla had allowed for a decision at the 6 October vote. The agenda of the EU automotive committee now provides only for further discussion of the application. The next chance of a vote under the current calendar comes in December at the earliest, and a positive outcome is uncertain even then. France opposes approving the system in its current form over safety questions, and Sweden has raised concerns about compliance with speed limits.<\/p>\n  <p>EU-wide approval would give Tesla an extra selling point and let it earn subscription revenue across Europe. Until then, the company can only scale FSD country by country.<\/p>\n\n  <!-- PROMO 2 -->\n  <div class=\"ts-promo\">\n    <div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-title\">Open a <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/trading\/trading-accounts\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"2\" title=\"trading account\">Trading Account<\/a> at RoboForex<\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-sub\">Swap-free accounts, spreads from 0, and execution in 0.01 seconds.<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-promo-actions\">\n      <a class=\"ts-promo-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/my.roboforex.com\/en\/register\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Open Account<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; ANALYST RATINGS &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"analysts\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"TSLA_Analyst_Ratings\"><\/span>TSLA Analyst Ratings<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>As of September 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barchart.com\/stocks\/quotes\/TSLA\/analyst-ratings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Barchart analyst ratings<\/a> for TSLA are moderately positive. Of the 41 analysts tracked, 17 rate the stock a Buy, 20 a Hold and 4 a Sell.<\/p>\n\n  <!-- Analyst widget: 41 analysts, 17 Buy, 20 Hold, 4 Sell.\n       Icon grid 9 cols x 5 rows = 45 slots, 41 filled, 4 empty at the end.\n       Icon 22x36, column step 26, row step 40. ViewBox 230 x 196. Left column 46% so its natural height matches the cards. -->\n  <svg class=\"ts-ar2-defs\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <defs>\n      <symbol id=\"ts-g\" viewbox=\"0 0 22 36\"><path d=\"M10.4603,0.0394 c-1.4094,0.2222 -2.4303,1.1222 -2.5884,2.2866 -0.0619,0.4697 0.0309,0.9225 0.2784,1.3528 0.8869,1.5553 3.2931,1.9772 4.9191,0.8634 0.4434,-0.3037 0.8216,-0.7931 0.9969,-1.2937 0.1031,-0.2981 0.1134,-0.9647 0.0172,-1.2516 -0.2166,-0.6441 -0.6359,-1.1503 -1.2478,-1.5075 -0.2819,-0.1631 -0.7288,-0.3347 -1.0622,-0.4078 -0.3541,-0.0731 -0.9762,-0.0956 -1.3131,-0.0422 Z\" fill=\"#4CAF50\"><\/path><path d=\"M5.6581,6.6403 c-0.7322,0.0872 -1.3097,0.3347 -1.7978,0.7678 -0.3884,0.3459 -0.6256,0.7706 -0.6978,1.2544 -0.0481,0.3291 -0.0481,10.6903 0.0034,10.9378 0.0756,0.3881 0.3266,0.6694 0.7459,0.8381 0.2544,0.1041 0.2716,0.1069 0.6394,0.1069 0.3575,-0.0000 0.3953,-0.0056 0.6119,-0.0900 0.2922,-0.1125 0.5191,-0.2981 0.6566,-0.5372 l0.1100,-0.1884 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  <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"52\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"78\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"104\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"130\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"156\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"182\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"208\" y=\"0\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"0\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"26\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"52\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"78\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"104\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"130\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"156\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-g\" x=\"182\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"208\" y=\"40\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"0\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"26\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"52\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"78\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"104\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"130\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"156\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"182\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"208\" y=\"80\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"0\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"26\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"52\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"78\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"104\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"130\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"156\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"182\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"208\" y=\"120\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-gr\" x=\"0\" y=\"160\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-r\" x=\"26\" y=\"160\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-r\" x=\"52\" y=\"160\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-r\" x=\"78\" y=\"160\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n          <use href=\"#ts-r\" x=\"104\" y=\"160\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use>\n        <\/svg>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-ar2-legend\">\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-legend-item\"><svg width=\"14\" height=\"22\" viewbox=\"0 0 22 36\"><use href=\"#ts-g\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use><\/svg> Buy: 17<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-legend-item\"><svg width=\"14\" height=\"22\" viewbox=\"0 0 22 36\"><use href=\"#ts-gr\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use><\/svg> Hold: 20<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-legend-item\"><svg width=\"14\" height=\"22\" viewbox=\"0 0 22 36\"><use href=\"#ts-r\" width=\"22\" height=\"36\"><\/use><\/svg> Sell: 4<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-ar2-right\">\n      <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-main\">\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-headline\">17 out of 41<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-sub\">recommend Buy (41%)<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-ar2-row2\">\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-sm\"><div class=\"ts-ar2-lbl\">Hold<\/div><div class=\"ts-ar2-val ts-ar2-val-hold\">20 (49%)<\/div><\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-sm\"><div class=\"ts-ar2-lbl\">Sell<\/div><div class=\"ts-ar2-val ts-ar2-val-sell\">4 (10%)<\/div><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-price\">\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-lbl\">Average Target Price<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-val\">405.20 USD<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-ar2-row3\">\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-price\">\n          <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-lbl\">Minimum Target<\/div>\n          <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-val ts-ar2-price-min\">123.00 USD<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-ar2-card-price\">\n          <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-lbl\">Maximum Target<\/div>\n          <div class=\"ts-ar2-price-val ts-ar2-price-max\">600.00 USD<\/div>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p>The average target price is 405.20 USD, 13.5% above the 28 September close of 357 USD. Individual targets range from 123 to 600 USD. That spread shows there is no single view on Tesla's prospects, and the Q3 2026 deliveries could become an important test of market expectations.<\/p>\n  <p>Worth noting for this idea: the 325 USD target below comes from the chart. It sits about 20% below the analyst average and well above the lowest forecast on the street.<\/p>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; TECHNICAL ANALYSIS &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"technical\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"TSLA_Technical_Analysis_and_Stock_Forecast\"><\/span>TSLA Technical Analysis and Stock Forecast<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>TSLA closed at 357 USD on 28 September.<\/p>\n  <p>On the daily chart TSLA trades below its 200-period <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/what-is-a-moving-average\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"68\" title=\"Moving Average\">Moving Average<\/a> and keeps moving inside a descending channel. The rise that began in August 2026 was a local correction: buyers could not break the medium-term trend or reach the 200-period Moving Average, which points to their weakness. The <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/stochastic-oscillator-description-trading\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"63\" title=\"Stochastic\">Stochastic<\/a> oscillator has turned down from the overbought zone, a sign the corrective rise is fading, and that raises the risk of the decline resuming.<\/p>\n  <p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/double-triple-top-double-triple-bottom-patterns\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"148\" title=\"double bottom pattern forex\">double top pattern<\/a> on the chart adds to the case for a decline. If support at 353 USD breaks, the pattern's technical objective is 325 USD.<\/p>\n  <p>Based on this technical analysis of TSLA, the trade idea places a Sell Stop <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/main-order-types-in-trading\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"311\" title=\"Order\">order<\/a> at 351 USD. The take-profit is set at 325 USD and the stop-loss at 361 USD.<\/p>\n\n  <figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-3.png\"><img height=\"1310\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"2346\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/tsla-29-09-2026-3.png\" alt=\"Tesla (TSLA) daily chart: descending channel below the 200-period SMA, a double top above 353 USD support and a 325 USD objective\"><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock technical analysis and forecast, daily chart. Past results do not guarantee future performance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n  <p>The technical analysis leads to these conclusions:<\/p>\n  <ul>\n    <li><strong>The medium-term trend stays down.<\/strong> TSLA trades inside a descending channel and below the 200-period SMA, which confirms the strength of sellers and the weakness of buyers.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>The corrective rise is running out.<\/strong> Stochastic has turned down from the overbought zone, a sign that the local bounce is ending and the decline may resume.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>A reversal pattern has formed.<\/strong> The double top is the main medium-term sell signal, with a technical objective at 325 USD.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>The trigger for a decline in TSLA is a break of support at 353 USD.<\/strong><\/li>\n  <\/ul>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-rule\">\n    <div class=\"ts-rule-label\">Position management rule<\/div>\n    <p>Once the price has covered 70% of the distance to the target, at 332.80 USD, the stop-loss moves to the entry level at 351 USD. From there it trails the price at a distance of 5% above it. Management continues until the position closes at the take-profit or the stop-loss, whichever is reached first.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; TRADING STRATEGY &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"strategy\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sample_Trading_Strategy_for_TSLA_Shares\"><\/span>Sample Trading Strategy for TSLA Shares<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Below is a sample <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/7-trading-strategies-for-beginners-and-advanced\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"141\" title=\"Trading Strategy\">trading strategy<\/a> for TSLA shares, built on the parameters in the table at the top of this article. This example is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance independently.<\/p>\n\n  <h3 id=\"calculation\">Sample Calculation for 10 TSLA Shares<\/h3>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-table-wrap\">\n    <table class=\"rf\">\n      <thead>\n        <tr><th>Scenario<\/th><th>Calculation<\/th><th>Result<\/th><\/tr>\n      <\/thead>\n      <tbody>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Scenario\">Sell 10 shares at 351 USD<\/td><td data-label=\"Calculation\">10 &times; 351 USD<\/td><td data-label=\"Result\" class=\"num\">3,510 USD<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Scenario\">Target reached (325 USD)<\/td><td data-label=\"Calculation\">(351 &minus; 325) &times; 10<\/td><td data-label=\"Result\" class=\"pos\">+260 USD (+7.4%)<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Scenario\">Stop triggered (361 USD)<\/td><td data-label=\"Calculation\">(361 &minus; 351) &times; 10<\/td><td data-label=\"Result\" class=\"neg\">&minus;100 USD (&minus;2.8%)<\/td><\/tr>\n        <tr><td data-label=\"Scenario\">Risk \/ Reward<\/td><td data-label=\"Calculation\">100 \/ 260<\/td><td data-label=\"Result\" class=\"num\">1 : 2.6<\/td><\/tr>\n      <\/tbody>\n    <\/table>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <p>A risk\/reward ratio of 1:2.6 means the potential gain is more than twice the risk taken on. Keep in mind that markets are volatile: TSLA shares can move both for and against an open position.<\/p>\n\n  <h3 id=\"calculator\">Position Size Calculator for TSLA Shares<\/h3>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-calc\" id=\"ts-calc\">\n    <p class=\"ts-calc-lead\">A short entry at 351 USD and a stop-loss at 361 USD mean each share risks 10 USD. Set your account size and the share of it you are ready to risk. The recommended risk for this idea is no more than 3% of the account per trade.<\/p>\n\n    <div class=\"ts-calc-inputs\">\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-field\">\n        <label for=\"ts-calc-account\">Account size, USD<\/label>\n        <input type=\"number\" id=\"ts-calc-account\" min=\"0\" step=\"100\" value=\"10000\" inputmode=\"decimal\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-slider\">\n          <input type=\"range\" id=\"ts-calc-account-range\" min=\"1000\" max=\"100000\" step=\"1000\" value=\"10000\" aria-label=\"Account size, USD\">\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-scale\"><span>1,000<\/span><span>100,000<\/span><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-field\">\n        <label for=\"ts-calc-risk\">Risk per trade, %<\/label>\n        <input type=\"number\" id=\"ts-calc-risk\" min=\"0\" step=\"0.1\" value=\"3\" inputmode=\"decimal\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-slider\">\n          <input type=\"range\" id=\"ts-calc-risk-range\" min=\"0.5\" max=\"10\" step=\"0.5\" value=\"3\" aria-label=\"Risk per trade, percent\">\n          <span class=\"ts-calc-tick\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-scale\"><span>0.5%<\/span><span class=\"ts-calc-scale-rec\">3% recommended<\/span><span>10%<\/span><\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"ts-calc-out\">\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-card\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-lbl\">Shares to sell<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-val\" id=\"ts-calc-shares\">30<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-sub\" id=\"ts-calc-risk-usd\">risk 300 USD<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-card\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-lbl\">Position value<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-val\" id=\"ts-calc-position\">10,530 USD<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-sub\" id=\"ts-calc-position-pct\">105.3% of the account<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-card\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-lbl\">Loss at 361 USD<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-val ts-calc-neg\" id=\"ts-calc-loss\">&minus;300 USD<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-sub\" id=\"ts-calc-loss-pct\">3.0% of the account<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-calc-card\">\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-lbl\">Profit at 325 USD<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-val ts-calc-pos\" id=\"ts-calc-profit\">+780 USD<\/div>\n        <div class=\"ts-calc-sub\" id=\"ts-calc-profit-pct\">7.8% of the account<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p class=\"ts-calc-msg\" id=\"ts-calc-msg\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/p>\n    <p class=\"ts-calc-note\">Whole shares, rounded down so the loss stays within the risk you set. The stop sits only 10 USD from the entry, so even a modest risk <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/education\/is-it-important-to-plan-budget\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"298\" title=\"Budget\">budget<\/a> buys a large position: check the margin your account needs for it. Educational example, not investment advice.<\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <script>\n  (function () {\n    var root = document.getElementById('ts-calc');\n    if (!root) return;\n    var ENTRY = 351, STOP = 361, TARGET = 325, RECOMMENDED = 3;\n    var byId = function (id) { return document.getElementById(id); };\n    var acc = byId('ts-calc-account'), accRange = byId('ts-calc-account-range');\n    var risk = byId('ts-calc-risk'), riskRange = byId('ts-calc-risk-range');\n    var out = {\n      shares: byId('ts-calc-shares'), riskUsd: byId('ts-calc-risk-usd'),\n      position: byId('ts-calc-position'), positionPct: byId('ts-calc-position-pct'),\n      loss: byId('ts-calc-loss'), lossPct: byId('ts-calc-loss-pct'),\n      profit: byId('ts-calc-profit'), profitPct: byId('ts-calc-profit-pct'), msg: byId('ts-calc-msg')\n    };\n    if (!acc || !accRange || !risk || !riskRange) return;\n    for (var k in out) { if (!out[k]) return; }\n\n    var fmt = function (n) { return Math.round(n).toLocaleString('en-US'); };\n    var pctOf = function (v, account) { return (v \/ account * 100).toFixed(1) + '% of the account'; };\n    var clamp = function (v, el) { return Math.min(Math.max(v, +el.min), +el.max); };\n\n    function update() {\n      var account = parseFloat(acc.value), pct = parseFloat(risk.value);\n      if (!(account > 0) || !(pct > 0)) {\n        out.msg.innerHTML = 'Enter an account size and a risk above 0.';\n        return;\n      }\n      var perShare = STOP - ENTRY;\n      var riskUsd = account * pct \/ 100;\n      var shares = Math.floor(riskUsd \/ perShare);\n      var position = shares * ENTRY, loss = shares * perShare, profit = shares * (ENTRY - TARGET);\n      out.shares.innerHTML = fmt(shares);\n      out.riskUsd.innerHTML = 'risk ' + fmt(riskUsd) + ' USD';\n      out.position.innerHTML = fmt(position) + ' USD';\n      out.positionPct.innerHTML = pctOf(position, account);\n      out.loss.innerHTML = (shares > 0 ? '&minus;' : '') + fmt(loss) + ' USD';\n      out.lossPct.innerHTML = pctOf(loss, account);\n      out.profit.innerHTML = (shares > 0 ? '+' : '') + fmt(profit) + ' USD';\n      out.profitPct.innerHTML = pctOf(profit, account);\n\n      var notes = [];\n      if (shares < 1) notes.push('One share risks ' + perShare + ' USD, more than the ' + fmt(riskUsd) + ' USD you set. Raise the account size or the risk to open at least one share.');\n      if (pct > RECOMMENDED) notes.push('This is above the ' + RECOMMENDED + '% risk per trade recommended for this idea.');\n      if (position > account) notes.push('The position is larger than the account, so it can only be opened with leverage.');\n      out.msg.innerHTML = notes.join('<br>');\n    }\n\n    acc.addEventListener('input', function () { if (parseFloat(acc.value) > 0) accRange.value = clamp(parseFloat(acc.value), accRange); update(); });\n    accRange.addEventListener('input', function () { acc.value = accRange.value; update(); });\n    risk.addEventListener('input', function () { if (parseFloat(risk.value) > 0) riskRange.value = clamp(parseFloat(risk.value), riskRange); update(); });\n    riskRange.addEventListener('input', function () { risk.value = riskRange.value; update(); });\n    update();\n  })();\n  <\/script>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; INVALIDATION &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"invalidation\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"When_This_Idea_Stops_Being_Valid\"><\/span>When This Idea Stops Being Valid<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Three conditions end it.<\/p>\n  <ul>\n    <li><strong>Support at 353 USD holds.<\/strong> TSLA closed at 357 USD, so the Sell Stop at 351 USD needs a fall of about 1.7% to fill. If the price stays above support through the three-month horizon, the order expires unfilled at the end of December 2026.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>Q3 deliveries beat the record.<\/strong> A result above the 497,099 cars of Q3 2025 removes the fundamental case for a decline, and a pending order that has not filled yet is withdrawn.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>The stop-loss is hit after entry.<\/strong> Once the short is open, a rise to 361 USD closes it with a loss of about 2.8% of the position value, and the case for a fall to 325 USD no longer holds.<\/li>\n  <\/ul>\n\n  <!-- PROMO 3 -->\n  <div class=\"ts-promo\">\n    <div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-title\">Get <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/platforms\/metatrader5-mt5\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"8\" title=\"metatrader 5\">MetaTrader 5<\/a> From RoboForex<\/div>\n      <div class=\"ts-promo-sub\">Pending orders, stop-loss and take-profit, and daily TSLA charts in one free terminal.<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"ts-promo-actions\">\n      <a class=\"ts-promo-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/platforms\/metatrader5-mt5\/\" target=\"_blank\">Get MT5<\/a>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; RISKS &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"risks\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Could_Support_TSLA_Against_This_Forecast\"><\/span>What Could Support TSLA Against This Forecast<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>The trend points down, and the coming delivery data and the next steps on FSD could still support Tesla shares and call the bearish forecast into question. The main risks for the TSLA downside forecast are these:<\/p>\n  <ul>\n    <li><strong>Deliveries come in stronger than expected.<\/strong> If the Q3 result clearly beats the market estimate of about 463,000 cars and approaches the record 497,099 deliveries a year earlier, investors may read it as proof of durable demand. That result would raise the chance of the stock rising.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>The European recovery continues.<\/strong> Tesla's EU registrations rose 65.9% year on year in January to August. If the company keeps that pace in a growing electric car market, concerns about losing its position may ease.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>FSD makes progress.<\/strong> The EU-wide vote is postponed, and individual countries keep approving the system. New national approvals or a constructive EU discussion of the application could lift investor expectations ahead of a final decision.<\/li>\n    <li><strong>Delivery growth comes without price cuts.<\/strong> If Tesla raises sales without large discounts, that supports revenue and the profitability of the car business. Strong delivery data would then be a more convincing argument against the downside forecast.<\/li>\n  <\/ul>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; CONCLUSION &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"conclusion\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Should_You_Sell_TSLA_Stock_Now\"><\/span>Should You Sell TSLA Stock Now?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n  <p>Opening a short position before support at 353 USD breaks looks premature. Tesla is expected to publish its Q3 2026 deliveries on 2 October, and the result could move the stock sharply in either direction. The average market forecast is about 463,000 cars, so a strong beat could support the price for a while and delay the downside scenario.<\/p>\n  <p>The technical picture stays mostly negative: the stock trades below the 200-period Moving Average, keeps moving inside a descending channel, and a double top has formed on the chart.<\/p>\n  <p>The more conservative option is therefore to wait for the price to hold below 353 USD. That signal would confirm the downside scenario and give a better-grounded point to open a short position.<\/p>\n\n  <div class=\"ts-cta\">\n    <a href=\"https:\/\/my.roboforex.com\/en\/register\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Open a Trading Account at RoboForex<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <!-- &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; FAQ &#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472;&#9472; -->\n  <h2 id=\"faq\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FAQ\"><\/span>FAQ<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n  <div class=\"ts-faq\">\n    <details class=\"ts-faq-item\">\n      <summary class=\"ts-faq-q\">When does Tesla report Q3 2026 deliveries?<\/summary>\n      <div class=\"ts-faq-a\">On 2 October 2026. The FactSet average estimate is about 463,000 cars, against 480,126 in Q2 2026 and the record 497,099 in Q3 2025. Revenue and net profit for the quarter follow with the full results, expected around 28 October.<\/div>\n    <\/details>\n    <details class=\"ts-faq-item\">\n      <summary class=\"ts-faq-q\">What triggers this TSLA trade idea?<\/summary>\n      <div class=\"ts-faq-a\">A break of support at 353 USD. The idea uses a Sell Stop order at 351 USD, so the short position opens only if the price falls through that support, which would complete the double top on the daily chart.<\/div>\n    <\/details>\n    <details class=\"ts-faq-item\">\n      <summary class=\"ts-faq-q\">What is happening with Tesla FSD in Europe?<\/summary>\n      <div class=\"ts-faq-a\">The Dutch regulator approved FSD on 10 April 2026, and several other European countries followed. The EU automotive committee will only discuss the application on 6 October, so the next chance of an EU-wide vote comes in December at the earliest. France opposes approval in the current form.<\/div>\n    <\/details>\n    <details class=\"ts-faq-item\">\n      <summary class=\"ts-faq-q\">When does this TSLA idea stop being valid?<\/summary>\n      <div class=\"ts-faq-a\">If support at 353 USD holds for the three-month horizon and the order never fills, if Q3 deliveries come in above the 497,099 record, or if the stop-loss at 361 USD is hit after entry.<\/div>\n    <\/details>\n    <details class=\"ts-faq-item\">\n      <summary class=\"ts-faq-q\">How can I trade Tesla shares at RoboForex?<\/summary>\n      <div class=\"ts-faq-a\">Tesla trades under the ticker TSLA in <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/terminals\/webtrader\/\" target=\"_blank\">MobileTrader<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/forex-trading\/platforms\/metatrader5-mt5\/\" target=\"_blank\">MT5<\/a>. Both platforms support pending orders, which this idea needs, since the entry is a Sell Stop below the current market price.<\/div>\n    <\/details>\n  <\/div>\n  <script type=\"application\/ld+json\">\n  {\n    \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\n    \"@type\": \"FAQPage\",\n    \"mainEntity\": [\n      {\n        \"@type\": \"Question\",\n        \"name\": \"When does Tesla report Q3 2026 deliveries?\",\n        \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n          \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n          \"text\": \"On 2 October 2026. The FactSet average estimate is about 463,000 cars, against 480,126 in Q2 2026 and the record 497,099 in Q3 2025. Revenue and net profit for the quarter follow with the full results, expected around 28 October.\"\n        }\n      },\n      {\n        \"@type\": \"Question\",\n        \"name\": \"What triggers this TSLA trade idea?\",\n        \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n          \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n          \"text\": \"A break of support at 353 USD. The idea uses a Sell Stop order at 351 USD, so the short position opens only if the price falls through that support, which would complete the double top on the daily chart.\"\n        }\n      },\n      {\n        \"@type\": \"Question\",\n        \"name\": \"What is happening with Tesla FSD in Europe?\",\n        \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n          \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n          \"text\": \"The Dutch regulator approved FSD on 10 April 2026, and several other European countries followed. The EU automotive committee will only discuss the application on 6 October, so the next chance of an EU-wide vote comes in December at the earliest. France opposes approval in the current form.\"\n        }\n      },\n      {\n        \"@type\": \"Question\",\n        \"name\": \"When does this TSLA idea stop being valid?\",\n        \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n          \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n          \"text\": \"If support at 353 USD holds for the three-month horizon and the order never fills, if Q3 deliveries come in above the 497,099 record, or if the stop-loss at 361 USD is hit after entry.\"\n        }\n      },\n      {\n        \"@type\": \"Question\",\n        \"name\": \"How can I trade Tesla shares at RoboForex?\",\n        \"acceptedAnswer\": {\n          \"@type\": \"Answer\",\n          \"text\": \"Tesla trades under the ticker TSLA in MobileTrader and MT5. Both platforms support pending orders, which this idea needs, since the entry is a Sell Stop below the current market price.\"\n        }\n      }\n    ]\n  }\n  <\/script>\n\n  <!-- DISCLAIMER, forecast variant -->\n  <div class=\"ts-disclaimer\">\n    <em>Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's independent analysis and reflect their personal opinion. These articles should not be construed as trading recommendations or a call to action. The authors and RoboForex accept no responsibility for the results of any trades made on the basis of these recommendations and reviews. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading stocks and CFDs involves a high risk of capital loss.<\/em>\n  <\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<!-- ==================== \/BLOCK 1 ==================== -->\n\n\n<!-- ==================== BLOCK 2: STYLES ==================== -->\n<style>\n:root {\n  --green:        #5ab02b;\n  --green-hover:  #489022;\n  --link:         #0384c6;\n  --text:         #2E3A59;\n  --text-light:   #666666;\n  --heading:      #2E3A59;\n  --border:       #e0e0e0;\n  --table-head:   #f5f5f5;\n  --table-stripe: #fafafa;\n  --promo-bg:     #f8f8f8;\n  --promo-border: #e8e8e8;\n  --toc-bg:       #f9f9f9;\n  --radius:       4px;\n  --font:         'Roboto', Arial, sans-serif;\n  --max-w:        1160px;\n}\n\n\/* &#9472;&#9472; Outer wrapper. 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The TSLA idea sells only after support at 353 USD breaks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":22077,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[48],"class_list":["post-22074","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-tesla-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tesla Stock Forecast 2026: Q3 Deliveries, 325 USD Target<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tesla stock forecast 2026 ahead of Q3 deliveries on 2 October: a Sell Stop at 351 USD, a 325 USD target, and the level that cancels the idea.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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