{"id":22150,"date":"2026-10-07T12:22:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T09:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/?p=22150"},"modified":"2026-10-07T14:44:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T11:44:08","slug":"boeing-stock-forecast-2026-max-10-certification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/analysis\/boeing-stock-forecast-2026-max-10-certification\/","title":{"rendered":"Boeing Stock Forecast 2026: Can MAX 10 Certification Lift BA to 266 USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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This Boeing<\/a> stock forecast 2026 trade idea rests on three pieces of news from the past ten days. The FAA found that the 737 MAX software glitch does not threaten safety, certification of the 737 MAX 10 may come in October, and Boeing's engineers approved a contract that removed the strike threat. On the chart BA trades near the bottom of a range, and the idea buys only after a break of resistance at 203 USD.<\/p>\n\n

\n
Driver<\/div>
FAA approval of the 737 MAX 10 is possible in October 2026<\/div><\/div>\n
Risks<\/div>
The engineers' strike planned for 7 October is off, and the software glitch is not a safety issue<\/div><\/div>\n
Analysts<\/div>
24 of 27 rate BA a Buy, targets from 195 to 305 USD<\/div><\/div>\n
Caution<\/div>
BA is inside a 188 to 243 USD range, so the entry waits for a break of 203 USD<\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n

<\/span>Trade Idea Parameters<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

Below are the specific parameters for the Boeing trade idea. The ticker for trading via RoboForex MobileTrader<\/a> and MT5<\/a> on RoboForex is BA<\/strong>. The live BA chart is on the RoboForex stock charts<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n

\n \n \n \n
Parameter<\/th>Value<\/th><\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Instrument<\/td>Boeing Co (NYSE<\/a>: BA)<\/td><\/tr>\n
Ticker in MobileTrader \/ MT5<\/td>BA<\/td><\/tr>\n
Idea Date<\/td>October 6, 2026<\/td><\/tr>\n
Time Horizon<\/td>2 to 5 months<\/td><\/tr>\n
Direction<\/td>↑ Buy (Long)<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry Level (trigger)<\/td>205.00 USD, Buy Stop<\/a><\/td><\/tr>\n
Take Profit<\/a><\/td>266.00 USD<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop Loss<\/a><\/td>180.00 USD<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk \/ Reward Ratio<\/td>1 : 2.44<\/td><\/tr>\n
Position Size<\/td>No more than 3% of account · Medium risk<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n\n \n
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<\/span>737 MAX Software Glitch and the Reaction of Boeing Stock<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

Boeing is close to an event that could change the long-term forecast for BA: completing certification of the newest and largest aircraft in the 737 MAX family. In late September 2026 a new problem briefly put the timing in question.<\/p>\n\n

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From the software glitch to a possible MAX 10 certificate<\/div>\n
    \n
  1. \n
    26 September<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    Glitch reported<\/strong>Boeing flags a software fault in some 737 MAX aircraft.<\/div>\n <\/li>\n
  2. \n
    28 September<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    Certification paused<\/strong>The FAA stops MAX 10 certification for checks. BA falls 7% in one day.<\/div>\n <\/li>\n
  3. \n
    1 October<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    Strike averted<\/strong>About 17,000 SPEEA engineers approve a new contract.<\/div>\n <\/li>\n
  4. \n
    2 October<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    No safety issue<\/strong>The FAA clears the glitch. BA closes the day 0.67% higher.<\/div>\n <\/li>\n
  5. \n
    October<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n
    Possible MAX 10 approval<\/strong>The FAA sets the final date.<\/div>\n <\/li>\n <\/ol>\n
    Dates and price moves from the analyst's brief.<\/figcaption>\n <\/figure>\n\n

    On 26 September 2026 Boeing reported<\/a> a software glitch in some 737 MAX aircraft. During a go-around, the automation could switch off the vertical path control mode. On 28 September the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) paused<\/a> MAX 10 certification until the checks were complete, and the market reacted at once: Boeing shares fell 7% in a single session.<\/p>\n

    On 2 October the FAA said<\/a> that the glitch does not threaten flight safety, because pilots stay in full control. BA recovered part of the drop, rising by as much as 1.5% during the session and closing the day 0.67% higher.<\/p>\n

    Investors now look at the certification itself. Aviation officials say<\/a> the model could be approved in October 2026, although the final decision and its timing stay with the FAA. For BA, a certificate would be the next confirmation that the MAX 10 programme has reached its final stage and that the aircraft will soon start reaching customers.<\/p>\n\n \n

    <\/span>Which Boeing 737 MAX Models Are Certified<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

    After the 737 MAX crashes of 2018 and 2019, the FAA took away Boeing's right to issue airworthiness certificates for new MAX aircraft on its own. After tough reforms inside the company, the FAA began returning its former authority step by step in September 2025, with the company and the regulator issuing certificates in turn. Since 20 July 2026 Boeing can again issue airworthiness certificates for the 737 MAX and 787 through its authorised unit. FAA control stays in place: the regulator keeps inspecting, auditing production and overseeing Boeing's safety management system.<\/p>\n

    As of 6 October 2026 the main passenger versions MAX 8, MAX 9, MAX 8-200 and MAX 7 are cleared for service or certified. The model still waiting for final FAA approval is the MAX 10.<\/p>\n\n

    \n \n \n \n
    Model<\/th>Status and stage of certification<\/th>What remains and expected timing<\/th><\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
    Boeing 737 MAX 8<\/td>Cleared to return to service in November 2020, after the grounding of 2019.<\/td>In service. Certification is complete.<\/td><\/tr>\n
    Boeing 737 MAX 9<\/td>Cleared to return to service together with the MAX 8 in November 2020.<\/td>In service. Certification is complete.<\/td><\/tr>\n
    Boeing 737 MAX 8-200<\/td>The higher-capacity MAX 8 received FAA approval in 2021.<\/td>In service. The first aircraft went to a customer in June 2021.<\/td><\/tr>\n
    Boeing 737 MAX 7<\/td>Certified. On 3 August 2026 the FAA approved the design and allowed production.<\/td>Boeing is preparing aircraft for Southwest Airlines. First deliveries are expected in 2027.<\/td><\/tr>\n
    Boeing 737 MAX 10<\/td>Awaiting certification. The planned flight tests are complete. On 2 October the FAA found the new software glitch is not a safety issue, but the model certificate is not yet issued.<\/td>Boeing is finishing safety assessments and handing the final materials to the FAA. Approval is possible in October 2026, but the regulator sets the final date. First deliveries are expected in 2027.<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n\n \n

    <\/span>Why the Boeing 737 MAX 10 Matters for the Company<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

    The MAX 10 is the largest version of the 737 MAX family. In a standard two-class layout it seats 185 to 210 passengers. The extra capacity lets Boeing compete for orders from airlines that need a large single-aisle aircraft for their busiest routes, and this is where the MAX 10 matters most in Boeing's contest with Airbus.<\/p>\n

    The order<\/a> backlog shows the full weight of the model. At 30 June 2026 Boeing had<\/a> 4,397 firm orders* for the 737 programme, and 31% of them were MAX 10 aircraft, about 1,360 in total. At the end of 2025 the share was about 29%.<\/p>\n\n

    \n
    31%<\/div>
    ↑ 2 points since the end of 2025 (29%)<\/div>
    of the 4,397 firm 737 orders at 30 June 2026 are MAX 10 aircraft<\/div><\/div>\n
    About 1,360<\/div>
    MAX 10 aircraft in the firm backlog of 4,397<\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    *A firm order is a legally binding contract between an airline and an aircraft maker. Source: Boeing, Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n\n

    Almost every third undelivered aircraft in the 737 firm backlog is a MAX 10. Until the FAA issues the final certificate, Boeing cannot make commercial deliveries of the model. The delay hits free cash flow and revenue directly and weighs on financial forecasts. Certification would let Boeing start turning the accumulated backlog into deliveries, revenue and cash flow.<\/p>\n\n \n

    <\/span>Boeing Engineers Approve a Contract and the Strike Is Off<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

    Boeing also removed a sharp labour dispute. The engineers' union SPEEA planned<\/a> to start a large strike on 7 October 2026, demanding wage protection against inflation<\/a> and better working conditions. A strike could have frozen the final stage of MAX 10 certification and the new 777-9 programme.<\/p>\n

    On 1 October the company's white-collar workers approved<\/a> a four-year agreement. Boeing agreed to raise pay by 10% at once and then guarantee 4% a year, with the option of further raises tied to performance. The immediate strike threat to about 17,000 employees is gone.<\/p>\n

    The timing suited the company. After the MAX 7 certification Boeing is close to finishing years of work on the MAX 10, and a strike could have pushed the schedule back again. One of the main short-term risks is now removed.<\/p>\n\n \n

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    <\/span>BA Analyst Ratings<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

    As of October 2026, Barchart analyst ratings<\/a> for Boeing lean strongly towards buying. Of the 27 analysts tracked, 24 rate BA a Buy and 3 a Hold.<\/p>\n\n \n \n \n <\/path><\/path><\/symbol>\n <\/path><\/path><\/symbol>\n <\/path><\/path><\/symbol>\n <\/defs>\n <\/svg>\n\n

    \n
    \n
    \n \n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/use>\n <\/svg>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    <\/use><\/svg> Buy: 24<\/div>\n
    <\/use><\/svg> Hold: 3<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    \n
    24 out of 27<\/div>\n
    recommend Buy (89%)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    Hold<\/div>
    3 (11%)<\/div><\/div>\n
    Tracked<\/div>
    27 analysts<\/div><\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    Average Target Price<\/div>\n
    272.23 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    \n
    Minimum Target<\/div>\n
    195.00 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
    Maximum Target<\/div>\n
    305.00 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n

    The average target price is 272.23 USD, about 41% above the 6 October close of 193.17 USD. Even the lowest target, 195 USD, sits above that close. The targets are set for a 12-month horizon, and the highest and lowest values mark the edges of the range of views on BA.<\/p>\n

    Worth noting that the technical target of 266 USD is set below the analyst consensus of 272.23 USD. This comes down to the planning horizons: the analysts' fundamental estimate covers 12 months, while this idea has a shorter horizon of 2 to 5 months.<\/p>\n\n \n

    <\/span>BA Technical Analysis and Stock Forecast<\/span><\/h2>\n\n

    BA closed at 193.17 USD on 6 October.<\/p>\n

    On the daily chart Boeing has traded mostly sideways between 188 and 243 USD since May 2025. In a range like this the price crosses the 200-period Moving Average<\/a> many times, so its signals<\/a> about direction become less reliable. During consolidation oscillators<\/a> carry more weight. The Stochastic<\/a> helps to find overbought and oversold<\/a> zones and often points to an approaching local reversal. On 6 October the Stochastic sits at the edge of the oversold zone and has started to turn up, which raises the chance of a recovery in BA.<\/p>\n

    The position of the price adds to the case: the shares trade close to the lower edge of the range at 188 USD, where buyers have stepped in before. The fundamental driver for a move up is the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10, expected in October. Positive expectations around the end of a multi-year process can support the stock.<\/p>\n

    Opening a position only because the indicator is oversold and the price is near support is risky. A more conservative confirmation of an upward move is a break of local resistance at 203 USD. The trade idea therefore places a Buy Stop order at 205 USD, so the entry comes only after the rise is confirmed. The scenario arrow on the chart runs to the top of the range at 243 USD, allows a pullback there, and then continues towards the next major resistance at 266 USD, which is the take-profit level.<\/p>\n

    This scenario assumes that a MAX 10 certificate improves the long-term outlook for Boeing's deliveries and cash flow and can start an upward trend. The stop-loss goes at 180 USD, below the lower edge of the range. A fall to that level would mean that support at 188 USD has not held and the recovery scenario is no longer valid.<\/p>\n\n

    \"Boeing<\/a>
    Boeing Co (BA) stock technical analysis and forecast, daily chart. Past results do not guarantee future performance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

    The technical analysis leads to these conclusions:<\/p>\n