CPI y\/y, Forecast<\/div>\n

3.6%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n

<\/div>\n

Previous<\/div>\n

3.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Core CPI y\/y, Forecast<\/div>\n

2.5%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n

<\/div>\n

Previous<\/div>\n

2.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n

Why It Matters<\/div>\n

This is the last CPI report<\/a> before the Fed decision on October 28, and the market is sensitive to it: the odds of an October hike fell to about one in four after the weak jobs report and can change quickly. Analysts link the expected jump in headline inflation, +0.6% month on month against 0.4%, to record gasoline prices in September. That puts the focus on core CPI, which rose at its fastest pace in four months in August. The forecast is for core to slow to 0.2% month on month while the annual rate edges up to 2.5%.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

Market Reaction<\/div>\n

Core CPI above the forecast would bring an October hike closer, lift Treasury yields and the USD Index, and weigh on gold and US 500. A reading in line with expectations would give a short and mixed reaction. Core CPI below the forecast would cut the odds of an October hike, pull yields and the dollar lower and support gold and stocks.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n

Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
We stay neutral<\/strong> on gold ahead of the release. Headline inflation is likely to come in high because of gasoline, so the core figure will decide the move. Gold gained 1.34% last week as yields eased. On the daily chart, XAU\/USD trades around 4,183 USD after another rebound from the rising trendline, which acts as dynamic support. Despite pressure from sellers, the potential for a further rise remains. The stochastic has reached oversold and its lines are close to a bullish crossover. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and a hold above 4,255 USD would signal the end of the correction and the start of an upward impulse toward 4,525 USD. A break below the lower boundary of the medium-term channel and a hold below 4,105 USD would cancel the bullish scenario.<\/p>\n\n
$\"XAU\/USD$ <\/a>
XAU\/USD daily chart ahead of the US CPI report. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — XAU\/USD<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 4255 \/ 4525<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 4105<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Buy Stop<\/td> 4255<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 4205<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 4525<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:5.4<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n \n <\/span>\n
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15<\/div>\n
Oct<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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UK · Economic Growth · Thursday<\/div>\n
<\/span>UK GDP (August)<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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GDP m\/m, Forecast<\/div>\n
Not published<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous (July)<\/div>\n
+0.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
No consensus had formed at the time of writing, and estimates range from flat growth to a 0.4% decline after a strong July. Analysts expect part of July's growth, which came from more volatile industries, to reverse in August. The Bank of England is still in tightening mode: Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene has called for a rate hike, and Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on Wednesday and Thursday. Greene's call keeps a hike at one of the last two meetings of 2026 in play, and a weak August figure would test that case.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
A marked decline would raise doubts about a hike and weigh on the pound. Flat growth or a small gain would support GBP\/USD and gilt yields.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
We are neutral<\/strong> on the pound: weak growth figures stand against talk of a rate hike, and GBP\/USD barely moved last week. On the H4 chart, GBP\/USD trades around 1.3257 and has stayed inside a narrow range for 12 sessions in a row. Buyers are trying to hold above the 65-period EMA, which could set up a test of the upper boundary of the range at 1.3285. A breakout above that resistance would strengthen the bulls<\/a> and open the way to further gains toward 1.3405. The stochastic is rising after it left oversold earlier in the range, which supports the upward scenario. A break below the lower boundary of the range and a hold below 1.3190 would cancel the bullish case and point to a return of the downtrend.<\/p>\n\n
$\"GBP\/USD$ <\/a>
GBP\/USD H4 chart ahead of UK GDP data. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — GBP\/USD<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 1.3285 \/ 1.3405<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 1.3245 \/ 1.3190<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Buy Stop<\/td> 1.3285<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 1.3245<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 1.3405<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:3.0<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n \n <\/span>\n
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15<\/div>\n
Oct<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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USA · Consumer Spending · Thursday<\/div>\n
<\/span>US Retail Sales and PPI<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n
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Retail Sales m\/m, Forecast<\/div>\n
+0.3%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
+1.2%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Retail Sales ex Autos m\/m, Forecast<\/div>\n
+0.5%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
+1.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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PPI m\/m, Forecast<\/div>\n
+0.5%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
+0.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
After a strong August, sales are expected to slow. The retail sales report<\/strong> measures sales in current prices with no inflation adjustment, so part of any gain reflects higher prices. The Chicago Fed estimates sales excluding autos at +0.4%, slightly below the +0.5% consensus. PPI, out at the same time, completes the inflation picture one day after CPI, with the annual rate expected to ease to 5.3% from 5.4%. The earnings season runs in parallel: FactSet expects S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 29.5% year on year in the third quarter, against 26.7% in the second, while the financial sector is forecast at 3.0% with the sharpest margin decline of any sector.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
Sales and PPI above the forecast would keep yields and the dollar high, which weighs on US 500. Figures below the forecast would pull yields lower and raise questions about how long consumers and company earnings can hold up. Consumer sentiment has already dropped to 46.3, and weak sales would add to that signal.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
Our view on US 500 is cautious<\/strong>: the index sits near record levels while yields stay at multi-year highs, so further upside depends on whether sales and bank earnings confirm that profits are holding up. On the H4 chart, US 500 trades around 7,834 and approaches local resistance. A rising wedge, a reversal pattern, is taking shape, and a break of its lower boundary could send the index down to 7,605. The stochastic has turned down from overbought and formed a bearish crossover, a sign that the market is ready for a correction. A break below the lower boundary of the wedge and a hold below 7,765 would confirm the decline. A confident break above local resistance at 7,905 would cancel the scenario.<\/p>\n\n
$\"US$ <\/a>
US 500 H4 chart ahead of the US retail sales report and PPI. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — US 500<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 7835 \/ 7905<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 7765 \/ 7605<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Sell Stop<\/td> 7765<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 7835<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 7605<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:2.3<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n
<\/span>What Else to Watch<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
Central bank speakers fill the gaps between releases. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks on Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday and Thursday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh late on Thursday, New York time, after the CPI, PPI and retail sales figures are out. His comments will show how the Fed reads the week's data ahead of the October 28 decision. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report earnings on Wednesday, after JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n
Track the forecast and the actual figure for each release, since the gap<\/a> between consensus and the outcome is what tends to move prices the most. Learn more about how to read the economic calendar and trade the news<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
<\/span>Conclusion<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
The week comes down to one question: will the data shift expectations for the Fed decision on October 28? A soft core CPI on Wednesday would support gold, and a hold above 4,255 USD opens the way to 4,525 USD, while a hot reading keeps 4,105 USD in focus. Thursday's retail sales report and PPI then test US 500: a hold below 7,765 would confirm a correction toward 7,605, and a break above 7,905 cancels it.<\/p>\n\n
Australia and the UK add their own tests. RBA minutes that keep the door open to another hike, together with solid jobs data, would support a move in AUD\/USD above 0.7005 toward 0.7140. For GBP\/USD, a UK GDP reading near zero could help the pair break 1.3285 and head for 1.3405, while a hold below 1.3190 would cancel the idea.<\/p>\n\n
\n Open a Trading Account with RoboForex<\/a>\n <\/div>\n\n
<\/span>FAQ<\/span><\/h2>\n
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When is the US retail sales report released?<\/summary>\n
The US Census Bureau publishes the advance retail sales report around the middle of each month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The September report comes out on Thursday, October 15, 2026, together with the PPI.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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Is the retail sales report adjusted for inflation?<\/summary>\n
No. Retail sales are seasonally adjusted and measured in current prices, so higher prices lift the headline figure even when volumes stay flat. Traders read the report together with CPI and PPI for that reason.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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Does the retail sales report include autos?<\/summary>\n
Yes, the headline figure includes motor vehicles and parts. Retail sales excluding autos removes them, since car sales swing sharply from month to month, and gives a steadier picture of consumer spending.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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What time is the US CPI report released?<\/summary>\n
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The September figures come out on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the last CPI report before the Fed decision on October 28.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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How can the retail sales report move US 500?<\/summary>\n
Strong sales support company earnings, yet in a week of high Treasury yields they can also lift expectations of another Fed hike, which weighs on stocks. Weak sales lower yields and raise doubts about consumer demand. The net effect depends on how far the figures land from the forecast.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n <\/div>\n