CPI y\/y (Wed, Oct 21), Forecast<\/div>\n

3.4%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Previous<\/div>\n

3.1%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Unemployment Rate (Tue, Oct 20), Forecast<\/div>\n

Not published<\/div>\n <\/div>\n

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Previous<\/div>\n

4.9%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n

Why It Matters<\/div>\n

The forecast puts UK inflation at its highest level this year and above the 3.0% the Bank of England expects. Futures price a rate hike on November 5 with a probability of 90% to 95%, and 54 of 63 economists polled on October 12 to 14 expect the Bank Rate to rise to 4.00%. With the hike largely priced in, the CPI report<\/a> matters for the path after November. The jobs data on Tuesday comes first: unemployment held at 4.9% in the three months to July, and regular pay grew 3.5%. Retail sales on Friday and the upcoming Autumn Budget<\/a> complete the picture.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

Market Reaction<\/div>\n

CPI at or above 3.4%, together with stable unemployment, would confirm the November hike and raise the question of a second one, which supports the pound and gilt yields. A reading below the forecast would leave the market with an expensive bet on the Bank of England and could weigh on GBP\/USD more than a strong reading would lift it.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n

Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
We see a moderately positive<\/strong> backdrop for the pound: inflation is expected to rise, and August GDP<\/a> grew 0.1% against a forecast decline of 0.1%. On the H4 chart, GBP\/USD set a new low during the week and then closed it with a sharp rise, and it now trades around 1.3324. The pair has left its sideways range and stays inside the descending channel. A pullback to the broken range boundary at 1.3285 is expected, followed by a rise toward 1.3475. The stochastic is rising after a test of its rising trendline and has reached overbought, which fits a short pullback before further gains. A break below local support and a hold below 1.3240 would cancel the bullish scenario and point to renewed pressure from sellers.<\/p>\n\n
$\"GBP\/USD$ <\/a>
GBP\/USD H4 chart ahead of UK CPI and jobs data. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — GBP\/USD<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 1.3475<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 1.3285 \/ 1.3240<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Buy Limit<\/td> 1.3285<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 1.3240<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 1.3475<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:4.2<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n \n <\/span>\n
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21<\/div>\n
Oct<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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USA · Corporate Earnings · Wednesday<\/div>\n
<\/span>Big Tech Earnings: Meta, Tesla and Netflix<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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Meta EPS (Q3), Forecast<\/div>\n
6.11 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Q3 2025<\/div>\n
7.25 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Tesla EPS (Q3), Forecast<\/div>\n
0.43 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Q3 2025<\/div>\n
0.50 USD<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
The big tech earnings<\/strong> arrive after US Tech lost 5.55% in a week and chip stocks fell the hardest. Meta's revenue is expected to grow about 23% to 63.3 billion USD, while earnings per share are expected to fall and capital spending to roughly double from a year earlier. Tesla's revenue is seen near 27.9 billion USD, close to last year's level. Options price a move of about 6% in each stock after the report. Netflix opens the series on Tuesday, Lam Research and Texas Instruments report on Wednesday, and Nvidia's GTC keynote in Berlin on Wednesday shows how demand for AI hardware is holding up.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
Results above forecasts and spending plans backed by revenue growth would support a rebound in US Tech after last week's sell-off. Weak guidance or spending that grows faster than revenue would extend the decline in technology stocks and weigh on US 500.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
Our view on US Tech is cautiously positive<\/strong>: after the sharp fall, a good part of the risk is already in the price, and the stochastic points to a rebound. On the H4 chart, US Tech trades around 29,584 after it bounced off local support. In the scenario, a pullback to support at 29,125 is a buying opportunity, and a breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel with a hold above 29,785 would confirm the rise. The target is 30,885. The stochastic has reached oversold and formed a bullish crossover, which points to a possible rise. A confident break below local support and a hold below 28,725 would cancel the bullish scenario.<\/p>\n\n
$\"US$ <\/a>
US Tech H4 chart ahead of big tech earnings. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — US Tech<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 29785 \/ 30885<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 29125 \/ 28725<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Buy Limit<\/td> 29125<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 28725<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 30885<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:4.4<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n \n <\/span>\n
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23<\/div>\n
Oct<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Japan · Inflation · Friday<\/div>\n
<\/span>Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/span><\/h2>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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CPI y\/y, Forecast<\/div>\n
2.8% to 3.0%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
1.9%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Core CPI y\/y, Forecast<\/div>\n
Not published<\/div>\n <\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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Previous<\/div>\n
1.7%<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
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Why It Matters<\/div>\n
The data comes out at 8:30 a.m. Tokyo time on Friday, Thursday evening in New York, a week before the Bank of Japan meets on October 29 and 30. Headline inflation is expected to jump by about a full percentage point, and core inflation is also seen rising clearly. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25% on September 18 in a 7 to 2 vote. In mid-October traders priced about a 10% chance of another hike in October and about 88% by December, and Bloomberg reported that officials lean toward skipping October. A strong reading would test that plan.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n
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Market Reaction<\/div>\n
Inflation at the top of the forecast range or above it would firm up bets on a December hike, or even bring October back into play, which supports the yen and pushes USD\/JPY lower. A reading below 2.8% would ease pressure on the Bank of Japan and could lift the pair. The risk of intervention limits the upside: the last intervention to support the yen, on July 31, came with the pair near 164.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n\n
Market Sentiment<\/h3>\n
We see a moderately negative<\/strong> backdrop for USD\/JPY: rising inflation in Japan strengthens the case for the next Bank of Japan hike. On the H4 chart, USD\/JPY closed last week lower and ended a run of four weekly gains in a row. The pair trades around 158.01 and stays below the lower boundary of a rising wedge, a reversal pattern, which points to a further decline toward 155.45. The stochastic is falling after a rebound from its descending resistance line, a sign that the decline may resume soon. A break of local support and a hold below 157.45 would be the signal for the bearish scenario. A break above resistance and a hold above 158.55 would strengthen buyers and cancel it.<\/p>\n\n
$\"USD\/JPY$ <\/a>
USD\/JPY H4 chart ahead of Japan CPI. Source: RoboForex. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
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Key Levels and Trade Parameters — USD\/JPY<\/h3>\n
\n \n \n
Parameter<\/th> Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n
Resistance<\/td> 158.05 \/ 158.55<\/td><\/tr>\n
Support<\/td> 157.45 \/ 155.45<\/td><\/tr>\n
Entry, Sell Stop<\/td> 157.45<\/td><\/tr>\n
Stop loss<\/td> 158.05<\/td><\/tr>\n
Take profit<\/td> 155.45<\/td><\/tr>\n
Risk to reward<\/td> 1:3.3<\/td><\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n
\n Trade Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n\n
<\/span>What Else to Watch<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
Flash PMIs for October on Friday show how business activity in Europe, the UK and the US is holding up, with eurozone services expected near 53. On Thursday the US Treasury sells 20-year bonds, a test of demand after yields touched multi-year highs this month, and Lockheed Martin reports earnings. Moody's reviews France's credit rating on Friday, which can move EUR\/USD. Oil stays in focus all week: shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and US inventory data on Wednesday decide whether Brent holds above 105 USD.<\/p>\n\n
Track the forecast and the actual figure for each release, since the gap<\/a> between consensus and the outcome is what tends to move prices the most. Learn more about how to read the economic calendar and trade the news<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
<\/span>Conclusion<\/span><\/h2>\n\n
Big tech earnings decide where technology stocks go after their worst week since June. Results from Meta and Tesla that justify the spending would support US Tech: a pullback to 29,125 sets up the bullish scenario with a target at 30,885, and a hold below 28,725 cancels it. UK CPI on Wednesday tests the pound: a reading at or above 3.4% supports a move in GBP\/USD from 1.3285 toward 1.3475, while a hold below 1.3240 cancels the idea.<\/p>\n\n
Inflation in Canada and Japan completes the week. Firm Canadian CPI and expensive oil support the scenario of a USD\/CAD decline from 1.4160 toward 1.3945, with a hold above 1.4170 strengthening buyers. In Japan, a jump in CPI would back a move in USD\/JPY below 157.45 toward 155.45, and a hold above 158.55 would cancel the bearish case.<\/p>\n\n
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<\/span>FAQ<\/span><\/h2>\n
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When do Meta and Tesla report their third-quarter results?<\/summary>\n
Both companies report on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, after the US market close. Netflix reports a day earlier, on Tuesday, October 20, also after the close.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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How do big tech earnings move US Tech?<\/summary>\n
The largest technology companies carry a large weight in the index, so their results and guidance can move it by several percent. Investors watch revenue growth, profit margins and capital spending plans. Strong results support the index, while weak guidance can trigger a sell-off across the sector.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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What time is UK CPI released?<\/summary>\n
The Office for National Statistics publishes CPI at 7:00 a.m. UK time. The September figures come out on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, two weeks before the Bank of England decision on November 5.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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When is Japan's CPI released?<\/summary>\n
Japan's Statistics Bureau publishes national CPI at 8:30 a.m. Tokyo time. The September data comes out on Friday, October 23, 2026, which is Thursday evening in Europe and New York.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n
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Why does oil matter for USD\/CAD?<\/summary>\n
Canada is a major oil exporter, so higher oil prices usually support the Canadian dollar and push USD\/CAD lower. Energy prices also feed into Canadian inflation, which shapes the Bank of Canada's rate decisions.<\/div>\n <\/details>\n <\/div>\n