{"id":327,"date":"2019-04-29T09:12:39","date_gmt":"2019-04-29T06:12:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/?p=327"},"modified":"2023-06-23T10:05:45","modified_gmt":"2023-06-23T07:05:45","slug":"43-profits-in-20-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/2019\/04\/29\/43-profits-in-20-days\/","title":{"rendered":"43% Profits in 20 Days"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Recently, we have published two posts here<\/a> and here<\/a> where we spoke on some stocks<\/a> that could rise by 50% or more before late 2019. Goldman Sachs<\/a> (NYSE<\/a>: GS)<\/strong> had published this before, and we tried to analyze it in technical terms. Today, we are going to recap what happened to these stocks and how much you could have earned on them over the last 20 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let's first talk, however, on trading against the crowd. You have certainly heard of it, things like 'When the crowd is buying, you should be selling', and vice versa. This is partly true, although it is somewhat questionable. Indeed, this 'crowd' is formed by small retail traders with lack of experience, and it is those traders that move the market, although they are always late with their entry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Mass psychology on financial market<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why does this happen? An inexperienced trader can't\nanalyze the situation on the whole and take a weighted decision; when it comes\nto opening a new position, they always need a confirmation. This leads such a\ntrader to reading analytic articles and watching news. If they find a\nconfirmation, they proceed to action; if no fundamentals are found, they can\nonly stick to the price moves. In order<\/a> to act without seeking confirmations, a\ntrader has to take risk, i.e. be ready to lose a certain amount in case their\nprediction is not correct. This is where novice traders' weak point comes from:\nalbeit they understand their risk, they just cannot accept it when the right\nmoment comes in. This is why they are looking for a confirmation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the crowd fails to hit the entry on time,\nand thus makes another mistake: when the price is moving its way, it is looking\nfor the profit it's already missed when failed to open the position at a better\nprice. The traders then start scaling in at the current price and indeed get\nmore profits. What happens next is the greed taking over: the trader loses\ncontrol and stop managing their position; instead, the position is managing\nthem. They can't lock in their profit, as they don't know where and when to do\nit; every day, they look at the chart with a single though: 'I should have\ninvested more. Why didn't I scale in more?' and so on. This is also the time\nwhen a trader starts reading chat rooms and news, if they have not done so\nbefore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to such chats, other inexperienced\ntraders share positive news on the companies they are trading, and this makes\nthe trader scale in even more. The hype may get no limits, while no such\nprediction is ever based on anything. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When a stock is rising, it's popularity is also\nrising; once there are no new investors driven by the hype, the buyout gets\nover, but the news and fundamentals are still positive. When the hype gets at\nits max, the experienced traders start closing their positions. They don't need\nto know when the reversal is going to happen, they just can push the stock down\nwith their large positions, and that makes them exit at the best fundamental\noutlook possible, when there are still some buyers that could help them lock in\nprofits without being noticed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One may say such seasoned traders trade against the\ncrowd, while, in fact, they only use the crowd to lock the profit at the point\nthey planned to do so. If the crowd had not got interested in the stock in\nquestion, however, the big traders wouldn't have earned that much either. So\nthe crowd actually boosts the market moves. Both parties are trading in the\nsame way, but while the experienced ones know what to do and what the risk is,\nthe inexperienced crowd is only sticking to the 'guts' and the hope that the\nprice won't move another way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Trading against the crowd<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Many are the books describing the experiments where\nseasoned investors tried trading against the crowd when they had certain\ninformation on the price going down soon. Even when it proved true, that cost\nthem a lot of money. This proves trading against the crowd actually makes no sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin may be a good example here. I know people who\nbought it at $40 or $70, and then sold at $750. When the flagship crypto hit\n$200 and stayed above, it started being discussed on each and every news\nchannel, which attracted the crowd, i.e. the main booster. At that moment, some\nmight already feel this bubble was going to burst soon, but what if someone\ntried to lock in the profit then? They would be still out of money by now! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Companies reactions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Twitter<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Alright, let's get back to the stocks now, and see\nwhether the crowd is really there.Twitter (NYSE: TWTR)<\/strong> has so far risen by 10% in 20 days. The news are positive and the volume is high: so, it looks like more buyers are coming in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Twitter<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Twitter reported Q1 earnings on April 23, and beat the\nexpectations, with the earnings rising by $13M to $787M. This boosted the stock\nprice of course, but those who bought it on Apr 8, when we published our post,\ncould not know that then, and the crowd was still inactive. Now, it's time to\nwait for the stock to hit $50 before 2019 ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Twitter<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Ford Motor<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ford Motor (NYSE: F)<\/strong> has been trading sideways since 2013, but finally it may have started to trend. Over the last two weeks, the stock added 12% to its value, and needs to go just +$3 to reach the $13.50 target. Ford released its Q1 report on April 25, and failed to meet the expectations, while the EPS still rose from 15 to 37 cents, most likely because of the effective cost reduction. The stock rose without the increase in volume, however, which means the uptrend may continue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On April 8, the stock was expected to reach $10.20\nsome day, and then get pulled back to the support at $9.50. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ford<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Currently, this prediction is still valid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ford<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Citigroup<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Citigroup<\/a> (NYSE: C)<\/strong> added 6% over the last 20 days, even with the earnings below expectations; the EPS also increased, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Citigroup<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The volume rose when the report came in, but not much, which proves the investors were interested but wary. The price is now near the trend line, which is also a resistance. It may correct to $65, and then continue rising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Citigroup<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If the price breaks out the trend line, however, this\nwill mean the investors are very much interested, and the price then may\ncontinue rising without a pullback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All the stocks mentioned above were supposed to rise\nwithout much correction, and it really happened so. Now, only a small\ncorrection may be expected. The stocks we are going to talk about below were,\non the contrary, supposed to get down before rising again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>NetApp<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

NetApp<\/strong> was trading in an ascending channel, being near the upper boundary and ready to hit the support at $70. This is what actually happened, and, by now, the correction is already fading out and the stock may start rising soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"NetApp\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

 By selling\nNetApp, one could have earned 5%, but as the overall signal was a buy one, that\nmade not so much sense, as it could be too much risky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Northrop Grumman<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC)<\/strong> was trading at $283 and were supposed to hit $293 first and then pull back to $276, with the price breaking out the trend line and then testing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Northroh<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This came true, and one could have earned 10% on it. Currently, the price is staying above the trend line, but still may go to the support at $260 in case $278 gets broken out. Conversely, if $290 gets broken out, the stock will be getting higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Northroh<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overall, over the last 20 days a portfolio consisting of TWTR, C, F, NTAP, and NOC would deliver a 43% profit. And while Goldman Sachs did a good job to attract more investors to these companies, one should have taken a lot of things into account in order to earn the maximum profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nOpen Trading Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recently, we have published two posts here and here where we spoke on some stocks that could rise by 50% or more before late 2019. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) had published this before, and we tried to analyze it in technical terms. 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