{"id":416,"date":"2019-06-04T18:47:29","date_gmt":"2019-06-04T15:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/?p=416"},"modified":"2022-08-22T12:06:44","modified_gmt":"2022-08-22T09:06:44","slug":"transdigm-group-pumped-aerospace-parts-by-4-000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/04\/transdigm-group-pumped-aerospace-parts-by-4-000\/","title":{"rendered":"Transdigm Group Pumped Aerospace Parts by 4,000%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Transdigm Group (NYSE<\/a>: TDG)<\/strong>, an aerospace parts manufacturer, was a very engaging company in terms of nice profits in the long term. Currently, however, the US Congress may run an investigation against it. The investors have already started to sell the shares off. Let's see whether one should or should not panic yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>About Transdigm Group<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Transdigm Group Incorporated was founded in 1993 by Nicholas Howley and Douglas Peacock. A world's leading hi-tech aircraft components manufacturer, Transdigm's products are used by all commercial and military aircraft existing nowadays. The management adopted a strategy of monopolizing the market without driving too much government's attention to the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Transdigm Group Acquisitions<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Four years after its foundation, the company began to seize the market with the acquisition of Marathon Power Technologies, a manufacturer of batteries for the aerospace industry. After three years, Transdigm has increased its list of acquisitions by another 2 companies, Adams Rite Aerospace and Christilie Electric. Further, in 2004, Avionic Instruments, a supplier of specialized energy conversion devices for aerospace products, became the part of Transdigm. In 2005, it made its way to Skurka Engineering, a manufacturer of electromagnetic equipment, as well as to Esterline Technologies, which produced pressure and flight control valves. In June 2006, the process continued, and Sweeney Engineering, Electra-Motion Industries, CDA InterCorp, and Aviation Technologies entered into Transdigm. The company did not stop there, and as early as in 2007, its membership expanded due to Bruce Industries, a manufacturer of fluorescent lighting for aircraft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Transdigm Group inception, at least 15 companies fell under its management, but the latest acquisition was larger and more important than any other. In March 2019, the company completed a transaction in the amount of $4 bn for the acquisition of Esterline Technologies Corporation (NYSE: ESL)<\/strong>, which united 14 other companies. This had further strengthened Transdigm’s position in the aerospace parts market, with the prices overvalued for the US Department of Defense drastically (in some cases, by 4,000%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example: This is what the cost of some parts was before the acquisition and after.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Company<\/td>Spare part<\/td>Old price, USD<\/td>New price, USD<\/td>Growth, %<\/td><\/tr>
Aerosonic<\/strong><\/td>Vibration Panel<\/td>67,33<\/td>271<\/td>302.5<\/td><\/tr>
Harco<\/strong><\/td>Cable Assembly<\/td>1837<\/td>7863<\/td>328<\/td><\/tr>
Skurka<\/strong><\/td>Connector<\/td>310<\/td>1109.85<\/td>258.02<\/td><\/tr>
Whippany<\/strong><\/td>Motor Rotor<\/td>654.46<\/td>5474<\/td>736.41<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Such a business model turned out to be very\nprofitable for company executives: in 2017, its CEO, Nicholas Howley, received\n$61 mn in bonuses and became the sixth in the list of top paid executives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason for such a serious increase in price\nis bare greed, but one cannot say they would act differently. If there is\nsomeone who can pay for the goods 40 times more expensive, why sell cheaper,\nespecially when everything happens within the law!?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acquiring the competition was always at a cost,\nand while the management were able to use the money gotten from high-priced\nsales, they went a more risky way by dividing the money between the\nshareholders and managers, while the companies were acquired with loans. As a\nresult, over the last seven years, Transdigm debt increased by four times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Transdigm<\/a>
Transdigm Group Debt & Equity Comparison<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Currently, its debt-to-equity ratio is -11.40,\nwhile the working capital is also negative, at $-1.48 bn. The company's\nfinancial condition is thus not very good. McDonald's<\/a> has nearly the same\nstats, but that is overlapped by an ultra fast operating cycle, in which stocks<\/a>\nquickly turn into cash. McDonald's has a turnover ratio of 59.30, while\nTransdigm's is only 0.37. If you compare Transdigm with similar companies that\nit has not yet acquired, then none of them have a similar situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, Heico (NYSE: HEI)<\/strong>, which operates in the aerospace industry and is among the 100 most innovative companies in the world, has a DTE ratio of 0.38; in Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY)<\/strong>, it's 0.31, while Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) <\/strong>has a ratio of 0.36.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>How They Found Out<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2017, the information on overpricing became\navailable to the public, with the stock going down by 12%. But no one was\ninterested in the panic fall; most shareholders, including the hedge funds,\nwere happy with the way it worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transdigm was backed by such banks as Barclays,\nCiti<\/a>, Credit Agricole CIB, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs<\/a>, Morgan Stanley, UBS,\nHSBC and the Royal Bank of Canada. They also charged a fee to the hedge funds\nthat traded the stock. As a result, bank analysts supported the company with\nrecommendations, while hedge funds continued to increase their positions, which\nled to an increase in the stock value by 200%. All of them were sure they would\nbe able to use power and influence, supported by big money, in order<\/a> to avoid\npublic outrage and prevent government investigations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They were, however, mistaken, as a Congress member did initiate an investigation and reveal another overpricing of some parts and equipment by more than 4,000%. This congressperson accused the company of a hidden monopoly, as a result of which the Department of Defense was unable to purchase the parts it needed from another supplier. Finally, on May 15, Transdigm executives testified before the US Congress committee, and on May 24, the company said it agreed to return the received extra profit in the amount of 16.10M. In 2017 Transdigm was obliged to payback 5M, but did not actually pay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Is It Worth Panicking?<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The issues with with Congress may lead to a\ndrop in profits, but aircraft parts will still have to be bought from it, so\nthe Department of Defense will still be a consumer of Transdigm. Even if, in\ntheory, it finds another supplier, Transdigm will not suffer much, because the\nsales to the US government account for 6 to 8% of its total revenue. This is\nwhy the stock has not gone too low so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Large investors, such as hedge funds, are never interested in the stock price decline, and they can still warm it up artificially. On the other hand, there was one more company that did the same way, increasing debts and heating prices; when it became known, the stock fell down from 262 to 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Stocks Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This namely happened to Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX)<\/strong> that reported its earnings much higher than expected, and many investors were caught by surprise. The stock occupied the first lines in a number of hedge funds in terms of position volumes, but this aggravated the situation even more, as hedge funds began to close positions, putting the price under pressure. After some time, the company declared a technical default, because the debt load was large, and the cash flow decreased. This is very alarming, and only the Q2 report may show how much serious it can be. If the hedge funds do not want to take risks, they can start selling before the report is released, which will lead to a major fall. Transdigm's short float is currently, by the way, 4.41%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth paying attention to the fact that\nNicholas Hawley, the CEO, started selling the shares back in April and\ncontinued to do so in May, the total sales amounting to $15,729,529.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Bit of Comparison - Heico, Teledyne Technologies, Raytheon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Now let's compare a few aerospace companies. This will involve the major competition, such\nas Heico, Teledyne Technologies, and Raytheon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C<\/strong>ompany<\/td>Price, USD <\/td>Stocks in trade, Million <\/td>PE Ratio <\/td>Net Income. Billion <\/td>EBITDA<\/a>, Billon <\/td>Debt\/ Equity ratio <\/td>Short Float,  % <\/td><\/tr>
Transdigm<\/strong> <\/td>440<\/td>54.681<\/td>30.06<\/td>0.202<\/td>0.52<\/td>-11.14<\/td>4.41<\/td><\/tr>
Raytheon<\/strong> <\/td>174<\/td>280.229<\/td>16.78<\/td>0.781<\/td>1.253<\/td>0.36<\/td>1.17<\/td><\/tr>
Heico<\/strong> <\/td>121<\/td>119.090<\/td>58.74<\/td>0.082<\/td>0.140<\/td>0.33<\/td>1.34<\/td><\/tr>
Teledyne Technologies<\/strong><\/td>235<\/td>36.042<\/td>26.49<\/td>0.075<\/td>0.12<\/td>0.31<\/td>1.42<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Transdigm is not at all the best. The short\nfloat is 4.41%, which is a few times more than the rest, the DTE ratio is the\nworst of all, while the P\/E<\/a> is ahead of the aerospace sector, with 22.77. Such\na high share price can be explained by a small number of those. Raytheon has a\nnet profit of 3.8 times more than Transdigm, but there are 5.1 times more\nshares in circulation, so the price of shares is a few times lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Analysis - Transdigm Group<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technically, Transdigm is uptrending, with the price above the 200-day MA. This could not be any other way, as the MA is slow. Therefore, one should also pay attention to the correlation<\/a> with the S&P500<\/a>. In our previous post<\/a>, we already pointed out the index is likely to drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
S&P500 Price Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Before, the S&P500 fell very much like\nTransdigm. After a strong correction last year, the index began to recover on\nDecember 26, while Transdigm shares moved up the very same day, although the\nprice did not fall that much as the index did. The S&P may well get to\n2,700 or 2,650, but once it gets to rise, the stock will also start rising.\nWithout any more negative news for the market except the Sino-US trade wars,\nthe current S&P fall is a mere correction. In the meantime, hedge funds\nhave a lot of Transdigm shares in their portfolios, and this amount may\nincrease further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The support is around $422, and the stock is\nnot falling much; if the news on the parts being overpriced were that negative,\nit would be losing around 10% to 30% daily. Thus, once the S&P500 reverses,\nthe Transdigm stock should reverse, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
Transdigm Group Incorporated Stock Chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Conclusion<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The company inflated prices for its products,\nbut did everything within the law, which is not perfect for each and every\ncase. As a result, the management took the opportunity to raise prices to the\nmaximum, without driving the attention of the government, and could earn on\nthis. Thus, the Transdigm managers understand what they are doing and keep the\nsituation under control. In addition, as mentioned above, the contracts with\nthe US Department of Defense are just 8% of the total revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The negative DTE is not a new thing for the\ncompany either. In 2014, the ratio was equal to -45.31, but this did not\nprevent the shares from further increasing by 500%. After acquiring Esterline\nTechnologies Corporation, Transdigm management may start getting rid of\ninefficient companies, which may improve the financial performance. At the very\nsame time, Transdigm is still the only supplier for the US Department of\nDefense. The Congress returned the overpaid money, but cannot give up the\ncontracts. The tech analysis<\/a> does not confirm any negative outlook either. The\nonly exception may be a large S&P500 fall, but if this is not the case, the\nstock will recover soon, perhaps in a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With RoboForex, you can invest in Transdigm shares through the R Trader<\/a> platform. This platform is provided free of charge, and, in case of a long term investment, a 1:1 leverage<\/a> account is the best option, as, this way, you won't have to pay the overnight rollover (the swap).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nOpen Trading Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Transdigm Group (NYSE: TDG), an aerospace parts manufacturer, was a very engaging company in terms of nice profits in the long term. Currently, however, the US Congress may run an investigation against it. The investors have already started to sell the shares off. Let's see whether one should or should not panic yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nTransdigm Group Pumped Aerospace Parts by 4,000% - RoboForex Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Transdigm Group an aerospace parts manufacturer, was a very engaging company in terms of nice profits in the long term. 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