{"id":448,"date":"2019-06-11T12:42:33","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T09:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/?p=448"},"modified":"2021-12-23T18:40:25","modified_gmt":"2021-12-23T15:40:25","slug":"s-amp-p500-recovery-which-stocks-overperformed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/11\/s-amp-p500-recovery-which-stocks-overperformed\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P500 Recovery: Which Stocks Overperformed?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In an article posted in April, we expected the S&P500 to reach a record high<\/a> and then correct, with the investors seeing no reasons for the index to go further up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>S&P 500 tech analysis<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500<\/a> price chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Most stocks<\/a> had then already hit their highs, and going long in the long term was quite risky. Waiting for the prices to go a bit down first was, conversely, a good idea. Thus, the S&P started pulling back down indeed, having formed a head and shoulders<\/a> reversal pattern <\/a>and being ready to hit 2,650.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 price chart <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With the neckline broken out, the price continued declining, and would have definitely reached its goal, but for a very unexpected event. Jerome Powell<\/strong>, the Fed governor, hinted he could lower the interest rate<\/a> in case it were necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This would be a very ordinary thing, as central\nbank governors often give hints on the rates, if it were not for some facts\nthat make us recap the recent history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>The influence of Donald Trump on economics<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the last four years, Donald Trump is\ntaking an active part in the US economy. During his presidency, the indices<\/a>\nrose by over 200%, which confirm his policy was quite good. However, is it\nreally him who made the indices rally, or was it Barack Obama who had managed\nto create a strong economy well before? Trump's policy should be judged once he\nstarts his second term (if there is any), when the scheme he created starts\nworking in full. Back then, Trump wanted to employ protectionism and make all\ntrading partners equal, but what he got was actually the trade war and large\ntariffs against those who, in his opinion, damaged the US economy. Perhaps he\ndid not think that those countries would retaliate, not just agree every time\nthey were made to accept inappropriate conditions. As a result, the countries\nagainst which Trump employed tariffs depreciated their currencies in order<\/a> to\nmake the consequences milder. The renminbi, for instance, got 11% cheaper; i.e.\nthe goods from the US got 11% more expensive for Chinese consumers, and thus\nless competitive. Besides, China imposed its own tariffs on the US goods, which\nmade the scenario even worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, such conditions made the indices\nrally virtually impossible. Trump's policies finally led to a 20% decline (this\nwas made by Trump, for sure), while Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire by\nhiking the rate four times in 2018. A real stab in the president's back,\nindeed, as it was Trump who assigned the Fed governor's post to him. And while\nin mid 2018, Trump was still patient about commenting on the Fed's decisions,\nlater in the year he said the central bank had 'gone nuts' when hiking the\nrates while the market was falling, the major threat now being not China, but\nthe Fed. Despite this criticism, however, Powell said he was going to be\nhawkish further in the future, i.e. continue hiking. Then, all of a sudden, he\nsays he might reconsider his policy in case the trade wars go beyond measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Trading signals<\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This was a very good buy signal: the S&P500<\/strong> stopped going down before it should, reversed and has already recovered 6%. Meanwhile, the job data on Friday was lackluster: the NFP <\/a>had been expected at 185K, but in fact it came at just 75K. The NFP<\/a> is a very important indicator, which is also considered by the FED when taking interest rate<\/a> decision. With the current data, the central bank may take stimuli, which will be good for the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 price chart <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This was perhaps exactly what the market needed\nin order to gain some more optimism. With the interest rate down, the USD might\nget weaker against other currencies. In fact, this is also happening, with the\nEUR<\/a> adding +1.70% against the greenback, the AUD<\/a> and the CAD<\/a> adding +2% each,\nand the British pound getting 1.50% more expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A month ago, Trump's team said it could impose\ntariffs on the countries with undervalued currencies, thus starting another\nkind of war: currency wars. The markets have already been under pressure\nbecause of that, especially the business sector. Some companies listed on the\nUS exchanges are also based in other countries, such as General Electric<\/a> that\nhas some production units in Mexico, against which Trump already imposed\naluminum tariffs. With the currency wars going on, the US goods are also going\nto suffer. The logic behind that is not quite clear. With more tariffs on\nMexican goods, the export there will decline, while the import will stay the\nsame; thus the trade balance<\/a> will go down, the peso will be less in demand and\nwill get depreciated against the USD. Trump will finally say the currency is\nagain undervalued and will impose more tariffs. This may go endless. With this\nin mind, a weaker dollar is a good signal saying currency wars are not that\nlikely, and the investors may start choosing stocks for their long term\nportfolios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>McDonald’s<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, a few companies overperformed and barely reacted to the S&P500 going down. The least affected company is McDonald's<\/a> (NYSE<\/a>: MCD)<\/strong>, which lost only 10%, twice as less than the benchmark in 2018, without losing barely anything now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
McDonald's price chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Starbucks<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Starbucks<\/a> (NASDAQ: SBUX)<\/strong>, a competitor of McDonald's, did not differ much, having already reached its record high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
Starbucks price chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>YUM! Brands Inc<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Another food company, YUM! Brands Inc (NYSE: YUM)<\/strong>, added 10% over the last eight days, also hitting its records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
YUM! Brands Inc price chart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As one can see, catering companies have not\nsuffered from either the trade wars or the rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span>Coca-Cola and PepsiCo<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Coca-Cola Company<\/a><\/strong> (NYSE: KO)<\/strong> and PepsiCo<\/a> (NASDAQ: PEP)<\/strong> also head up; even with no financial data at hand, one can see the investors are massively buying the stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<\/a>
Coca-Cola Company & Pepsico Inc price charts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Tesla<\/a>, where 90% of the price is backed\nby Elon Musk's PR campaigns, Coke or Pepsi are not such one-person brands. The\nEarth population is rising, so any threat to any catering company may come only\nfrom the competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is currently clearly signaling, which companies are leading. If you want to invest in the long term, a RoboForex R Trader<\/a> account with 1:1 leverage<\/a> is the best choice for you. Once you have opened an account, wait until the stocks start correcting, and then consider buying them. With a 1:1 leverage account with R Trader, you won't be charged any overnight swap. Moreover, you will get dividends<\/a> paid by the companies, while the platform is free of charge. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can learn more about R StocksTrader<\/a> multi asset platform from the post here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\nOpen Trading Account<\/a><\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In an article posted in April, we expected the S&P500 to reach a record high and then correct, with the investors seeing no reasons for the index to go further up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[132,1072,135],"class_list":["post-448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-pepsico-inc","tag-sp-500-index","tag-starbucks-corporation"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P500 Recovery: Which Stocks Overperformed? - RoboForex Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In an article posted in April, we expected the S&P500 to reach a record high and then correct, with the investors seeing no reasons for the index to go\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/roboforex.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/11\/s-amp-p500-recovery-which-stocks-overperformed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P500 Recovery: Which Stocks Overperformed? 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