Intel stock forecast: INTC shares could resume their upward trend after consolidating near 80 USD

Intel's Q2 2026 results showed an accelerating business recovery, particularly in the Data Center and AI and Intel Foundry segments. The forecast for INTC stock suggests consolidation near 80 USD, followed by an advance towards 120 USD.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reported Q2 2026 results that were significantly stronger than both market expectations and the company's guidance issued after Q1. The company exceeded its own guidance for revenue and earnings per share, while the strongest contribution to the improvement in performance came from the Data Center and AI and Intel Foundry segments.

Intel's forecast for Q3 also appears stronger than its previous outlook. The company expects higher revenue, an improvement in non-GAAP gross margin, and stronger earnings per share. This indicates continued demand in the data centre market, improving margins, and more resilient operating performance.

Investor reaction was mixed. Immediately after the earnings release, Intel shares rose by more than 4% in after-hours trading, as revenue, earnings, and guidance all exceeded expectations. However, the stock fell by almost 8% during the following trading session. The decline was driven by profit-taking following the stock's strong rally, the continuation of GAAP losses, and an increase in the company's 2026 capital expenditure forecast to more than 20 billion USD. The market viewed this as a sign that Intel's recovery will require substantial investment and could place pressure on free cash flow.

This article examines Intel Corporation, provides a fundamental analysis of Intel's financial results, reviews the performance of INTC stock through technical analysis, and presents a forecast for Intel stock for 2026.

About Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation is a US technology company specialising in the development and production of microprocessors, chipsets, GPUs, systems-on-a-chip (SoC), network controllers, modems, flash memory, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chipsets, and sensors for vehicle automation. Founded in 1968 by Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, Intel introduced the world’s first microprocessor in 1971, laying the groundwork for its future success.

In the same year, Intel held its initial public offering (IPO) on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol INTC, becoming one of the first companies in the emerging technology sector.

Intel Corporation Q3 2024 financial results

Intel released its Q3 2024 report on 31 October, revealing the following key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 13.3 billion USD (–6%)
• Net income (loss): 2.0 billion USD compared to 1.7 billion in Q3 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: 0.46 USD compared to 0.41 USD in Q3 2023
• Gross Margin: 18.0% (–2,780 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.3 billion USD (+9%)
• Network and Edge: 1.5 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (–8%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–28%)

In her comments on the report, Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger, noted that the company’s profitability was impacted by expenses previously mentioned during the Q2 2024 results discussion. However, the actual results exceeded expectations. In Q3, Intel took significant steps to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and strengthen its market competitiveness. A substantial part of the workforce reduction program was also implemented, with plans to lay off an additional 15% of employees by the end of 2024.

The financial results were also impacted by write-offs of outdated products from the COVID-19 period, as these could not be integrated into current products.

Management had an optimistic outlook for Q4 2024. Revenue was projected in the 13.3–14.3 billion USD range, with adjusted EPS of 0.12 USD, reinforcing the possibility of the company returning to profitability.

Despite the current losses, Intel is encouraging shareholders to retain their shares and has paid a Q3 dividend of 0.12 USD per share.

Intel Corporation Q4 2024 financial results

On 30 January, Intel released its Q4 2024 report with the following key figures:

• Revenue: 14.3 billion USD (–7%)
• Net income (loss): (126) million USD compared to income of 2.7 billion in Q4 2023
• Earnings (loss) per share: (0.03) USD compared to earnings of 0.63 USD in Q4 2023
• Gross margin: 32.9% (–650 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.0 billion USD (–9%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.4 billion USD (–3%)
• Network and Edge: 1.6 billion USD (+10%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.5 billion USD (–13%)
• All other: 1.0 billion USD (–20%)

For Q1 2025, Intel projected revenue in the 11.7–12.7 billion USD range and a loss of 0.27 USD per share. The gross margin was expected to be at 36%, down from 51% in Q1 2024.

Q4 2024 marked the first financial quarter under the interim co-presidency of David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus following the departure of Pat Gelsinger. Michelle Holthaus noted that the last quarter represented a positive step forward, as Intel exceeded its revenue, gross margin, and EPS forecasts. She emphasised the progress in executing the cost-cutting plan aimed at supporting the company’s recovery. David Zinsner stated that the plan had a positive impact, contributing to improved business efficiency, return on invested capital, and the company’s overall profitability.

Intel continues to move towards its foundry model by establishing Intel Foundry as a separate subsidiary. For Q1 2025, revenue from this division was expected to remain in line with Q4 2024 levels.

Despite positive elements in the company’s report, market participants reacted negatively to its release due to the anticipated decline in Intel’s revenues.

Intel Corporation Q1 2025 financial results

On 25 April, Intel published its Q1 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 29 March. The key figures are presented below, compared with the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 12.7 billion USD (0%)
• Net income (loss): 887 million USD compared to a loss of 437 million USD in Q1 2024
• Loss per share: 0.13 USD compared to a loss of 0.09 USD in Q1 2024
• Gross margin: 39.2% (–590 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.6 billion USD (–8%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.1 billion USD (+8%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.7 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 0.9 billion USD (+47%)

Intel's Q1 2025 results were mixed. The company exceeded revenue expectations but reported a net loss of 821 million USD, marking its fourth consecutive quarterly loss.

The company's guidance for Q2 2025 was also cautious. Intel expected revenue of 11.2–12.4 billion USD and a loss per share of up to 0.32 USD, both below Wall Street expectations. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner attributed the cautious outlook to macroeconomic uncertainty, trade tensions, and the risk of new tariffs.

Under the leadership of Lip-Bu Tan, Intel began restructuring its business. The company reduced management layers, strengthened cost control, and planned to reduce operating expenses to 17 billion USD in 2025 and 16 billion USD in 2026.

At the same time, the company continued to hold a weak position in the AI segment. Gaudi accelerators failed to meet expectations, plans for Falcon Shores were scaled back, while NVIDIA and AMD maintained their leadership in the AI chip market.

Intel Corporation Q2 2025 financial results

On 24 July, Intel released its Q2 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 28 June. The key figures, compared with the same period in 2024, are outlined below:

• Revenue: 12.86 billion USD (0%)
• Net loss: 400 million USD compared to a profit of 100 million USD in Q2 2024
• Loss per share: 0.10 USD compared to a profit of 0.02 USD in Q2 2024
• Gross margin: 29.7% (–900 basis points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.9 billion USD (–3%)
• Data Center and AI: 3.9 billion USD (+4%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.4 billion USD (+3%)
• All other: 1.1 billion USD (+20%)

In Q2 2025, Intel reported revenue of 12.9 billion USD, broadly in line with the level recorded a year earlier and above analysts' expectations. However, the company reported a non-GAAP adjusted loss of 400 million USD, or 0.10 USD per share. The main pressure came from one-off charges, including 1.9 billion USD in restructuring costs, 800 million USD in asset impairments, and an additional 200 million USD in expenses.

For Q3 2025, Intel expected revenue of 12.6–13.6 billion USD, a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 36%, and earnings per share of around zero. On a GAAP basis, the company projected a loss of 0.24 USD per share. This indicated continued pressure on profitability but also demonstrated the company's efforts to stabilise the business through cost control and a stronger focus on its core products.

The main challenges remained pressure on profitability and the slow development of the Foundry business. Foundry revenue totalled approximately 4.3 billion USD in Q2, but was derived almost entirely from Intel's own orders. Revenue from external customers reached just 22 million USD, highlighting the early stage of Intel Foundry Services (IFS) as a competitor to TSMC and Samsung.

At the same time, the company continued to have growth opportunities. Data Center and AI revenue grew by 4%, IFS revenue increased by 3%, while Mobileye and other niche businesses expanded by 20%. Under the leadership of Lip-Bu Tan, the company continued to reduce costs, review capital expenditure, and focus on AI processors and the Intel 18A technology, including Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest.

Intel Corporation Q3 2025 financial results

On 23 October, Intel released its Q3 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 27 September. The key figures compared with the same period in 2024 are as follows:

• Revenue: 13.65 billion USD (+3%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 1.02 billion USD, compared with a loss of 1.97 billion USD in Q3 2024
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.23 USD, compared with a loss of 0.46 USD in Q3 2024
• Gross margin: 40.0% (+22 percentage points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.54 billion USD (+5%)
• Data Centre and AI: 4.12 billion USD (–1%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.24 billion USD (–2%)
• All other: 0.99 billion USD (+3%)

Intel delivered results that exceeded expectations: revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share surpassed forecasts, while the gross margin came in above the guidance issued in July. Instead of the GAAP loss that had been expected, the company reported net income of 4.1 billion USD. However, a significant portion of the result was attributable to one-off factors, including the partial sale of its stake in Mobileye and the spin-off of Altera. Without these, profitability would have been more modest, with non-GAAP earnings per share of 0.23 USD. Additional support came from lower operating expenses and operating cash flow of approximately 2.5 billion USD.

The Foundry segment remained Intel's weakest area. Revenue totalled 4.2 billion USD, while the segment recorded a loss of 2.3 billion USD due to investments in the Intel 18A technology and low capacity utilisation. At the same time, the company reported progress: the factory had reached full capacity, while its collaboration with NVIDIA could help increase customer orders.

Intel's management stated that demand for the company's products exceeded supply and that this situation was likely to continue into 2026.

For Q4 2025, Intel expected revenue of 12.8–13.8 billion USD, a gross margin of approximately 36.5%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of around 0.08 USD. The guidance did not include Altera's results following its sale. Overall, the quarter was stronger than expected, but the guidance for the end of the year indicated that pressure on profitability and margins, particularly in the Foundry business, would persist.

Intel Corporation Q4 2025 financial results

On 22 January, Intel published its Q4 2025 financial results for the quarter ended 27 December. Below are the key figures compared to the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 13.67 billion USD (–4%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 0.77 billion USD (+35%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.15 USD (+15%)
• Gross margin: 37.9% (–4.2 percentage points)

Revenue by Segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.19 billion USD (–6%)
• Data Center and AI: 4.74 billion USD (+9%)
• Intel Foundry: 4.51 billion USD (+4%)
• All other: 0.57 billion USD (–48%)

Intel reported stronger-than-expected results for Q4 2025. Revenue totalled 13.7 billion USD, surpassing analysts’ forecast of approximately 13.4 billion USD, and adjusted earnings per share reached 0.15 USD, well above the expected 0.08 USD. Under GAAP, the company still recorded a loss of 0.12 USD per share.

The overall business picture remains mixed. The Data Center & AI segment grew by 9% year-on-year and was the primary driver of the improved results. At the same time, the PC market continued to weaken, with sales in the client segment declining. Gross margin remained under pressure, reflecting high manufacturing costs and Intel’s challenging competitive position.

The key negative factor came from the guidance. For Q1 2026, management had expected revenue of only 11.7–12.7 billion USD and effectively breakeven non-GAAP EPS. This outlook came in significantly below market expectations, pointing to a weak start to 2026. The company also acknowledged that production issues, supply constraints, and chip yield challenges would persist at least into the second quarter.

Intel Corporation Q1 2026 financial results

On 23 April, Intel released its Q1 2026 results for the quarter ended 28 March. The key figures compared with the same period in 2025 are as follows:

• Revenue: 13.58 billion USD (+7%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 1.49 billion USD (+156%)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.29 USD (+123%)
• Gross margin: 41.0% (+1.8 percentage points)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 7.72 billion USD (+1%)
• Data Center and AI: 5.05 billion USD (+22%)
• Intel Foundry: 5.42 billion USD (+16%)
• All other: 0.63 billion USD (–33%)

Intel delivered Q1 2026 results that were noticeably ahead of market expectations. Revenue reached 13.6 billion USD, compared with a consensus of around 12.4 billion USD, while adjusted earnings per share came in at 0.29 USD versus expectations of 0.01 USD. However, under GAAP standards, the company still reported a loss of 0.73 USD per share, suggesting that a full recovery cannot yet be considered complete.

From a business perspective, the quarter appears stronger than at the end of 2025. The main driver was the Data Center and AI segment, where revenue grew 22% year-on-year amid strong demand for AI-related server processors. The client segment also returned to growth, although the increase was modest.

For Q2 2026, management expects revenue of 13.8–14.8 billion USD and non-GAAP EPS of 0.20 USD. This guidance exceeded market expectations of approximately 13.07 billion USD in revenue and 0.09 USD in earnings per share. This suggests that demand for server chips and Intel Foundry services remains strong, and that the start of 2026 has been considerably better for the company than the market had anticipated just a few months ago.

Intel Corporation Q2 2026 financial results

On 23 July, Intel published its Q2 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 28 June. The key figures are presented below, compared with the corresponding period of 2025:

• Revenue: 16.13 billion USD (+25%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 2.20 billion USD (compared with a non-GAAP loss of 0.44 billion USD a year earlier)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 0.42 USD (compared with a non-GAAP loss of 0.10 USD a year earlier)
• Gross margin: 41.8% (+12.1 percentage points)
• Operating margin (non-GAAP): 17.2% (compared with –3.9% a year earlier)

Revenue by segment:

• Client Computing Group: 8.88 billion USD (+13%)
• Data Center and AI: 6.26 billion USD (+59%)
• Intel Foundry : 5.77 billion USD (+31%)
• All other : 0.70 billion USD (–33%)

Intel reported Q2 2026 results that were significantly stronger than both market expectations and the company's guidance issued after Q1. Revenue reached 16.1 billion USD, well above the company's guidance of 13.8–14.8 billion USD, while non-GAAP earnings per share reached 0.42 USD, compared with Intel’s guidance of 0.20 USD. At the same time, on a GAAP basis, Intel still reported a loss of 2.16 USD per share due to a substantial revaluation of escrowed shares. As a result, it is still too early to conclude that the company's recovery is complete.

The main driver of the quarter was the Data Center and AI segment, where revenue grew by 59% year-on-year, supported by strong demand for server processors and AI infrastructure. Revenue in the Client Computing Group increased by 13%, while Intel Foundry revenue rose by 31%, indicating improved capacity utilisation and continued progress in the foundry business.

The company's updated guidance is also noteworthy. After Q1, Intel expected Q2 revenue of 13.8–14.8 billion USD, a non-GAAP gross margin of 39.0%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of 0.20 USD. Following the Q2 results, the company now expects Q3 revenue of 15.8–16.8 billion USD, a non-GAAP gross margin of 42.0%, and non-GAAP earnings per share of 0.38 USD. This means that the midpoint of the revenue guidance has increased by approximately 2.0 billion USD, while the earnings per share forecast has almost doubled.

Overall, the Q2 results showed that Intel's recovery has accelerated more rapidly than the company expected in the previous quarter. The updated guidance points to continued strong demand in the data centre market, further margin improvement, and more resilient operating performance. The main risk remains unchanged: Intel must continue investing in manufacturing and its Foundry business, meaning its financial results may remain volatile even if revenue continues to grow.

Analysis of key multiples for Intel Corporation

The table below presents Intel Corporation's key valuation multiples as of the end of Q2 2026, calculated using a stock price of 81 USD.

Conclusion from Intel Corporation's valuation multiples

Following the publication of its Q2 2026 results, Intel can be viewed as a recovery story. The company has already delivered a significant improvement in revenue, returned to quarterly operating profitability, and issued strong guidance for Q3 2026. This suggests that the worst phase of the business may now be over, while the market has begun to price in further improvements in performance.

At the same time, the stock still appears risky based on its valuation multiples. Trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings remain negative, free cash flow is also negative, and the valuation based on revenue, EBITDA, and forward earnings remains relatively high.

Overall, Intel currently appears to be an attractive recovery opportunity rather than a stock with a wide margin of safety. The upside potential could increase if the company continues to improve its operating performance, reduces pressure on free cash flow, and demonstrates further progress in its manufacturing business. However, if the recovery slows, the current valuation may prove too demanding.

Expert forecasts for Intel Corporation stock for 2026

• Barchart: 11 of 45 analysts rate Intel stock as Strong Buy, 1 as Buy, 31 as Hold, and 2 as Strong Sell. The highest price target is 200 USD, while the lowest is 75 USD.
• MarketBeat: 17 of 49 analysts rate the stock as Buy, 29 as Hold, and 3 as Sell. The highest price target is 200 USD, while the lowest is 50 USD.
• TipRanks: 8 of 34 analysts rate the stock as Buy, 24 as Hold, and 2 as Sell. The highest price target is 200 USD, while the lowest is 80 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 12 of 48 analysts rate Intel stock as Strong Buy, 2 as Buy, 31 as Hold, 1 as Sell, and 2 as Strong Sell. The highest price target is 200 USD, while the lowest is 74 USD.

Intel Corporation stock price forecast for 2026

On the daily timeframe, INTC stock continues to trade above the 200-period Moving Average, indicating that the prevailing trend remains bullish. The Stochastic indicator has entered oversold territory, suggesting that the current correction may be nearing completion and that the stock could resume its upward movement. Based on the current Intel stock performance, the following scenario outlines its potential movement in 2026.

The forecast for Intel stock suggests a period of consolidation near the 80 USD level following the prolonged decline, before advancing towards resistance at 120 USD.

However, a break below support at 80 USD could trigger a decline towards 65 USD. In this scenario, the gap formed on 24 April would be filled, after which the stock is expected to resume its upward trend.

Risks of investing in Intel Corporation stock

Investing in Intel Corporation shares requires careful consideration of the factors that could adversely affect the company's future earnings. The main risks are outlined below:

• Foundry business risks: Intel's ambition to strengthen its position in the contract chip manufacturing market faces intense competition from Samsung and TSMC. Even as orders from external customers increase, the required investment remains substantial, while the prospects for an adequate return on investment remain uncertain.
• Competition and market share erosion: Despite growth in the AI and data centre segments, the traditional PC market continues to contract. Competition from ARM-based processors, together with the strong positions of NVIDIA and AMD in the server and AI chip markets, could limit Intel's revenue growth potential.
• Lagging behind in AI and high-performance data centres: Intel is gradually strengthening its position, but the company still trails NVIDIA and AMD in AI technologies, which could slow revenue growth in its most profitable business segment.
• Suspension of dividend payments: The suspension of dividend payments, which had been paid continuously since 1992, may discourage investors seeking a stable income. Such financial constraints could undermine investor confidence and ultimately weigh on the share price.
• Geopolitical and economic risks: Tensions between the US and China, a key market for semiconductors, could negatively affect Intel's business. Additionally, the company's global manufacturing footprint is exposed to significant geopolitical risks for various reasons.

Taken together, these factors pose a risk to Intel's future earnings by reducing revenue and increasing unplanned costs.

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