Micron forecast: memory demand continues to support MU shares

Micron's revenue increased by 346%, while long-term supply agreements have made future demand for Micron’s memory products more predictable. If the current uptrend remains intact, MU shares could continue advancing towards 1,650 USD.

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) delivered Q3 2026 financial results that significantly exceeded market expectations, confirming a sharp improvement in the company's performance. Compared with the same period a year earlier, revenue increased by 346% to a record 41.46 billion USD, non-GAAP earnings per share rose from 1.91 USD to 25.11 USD, and the gross margin expanded from 39.0% to 84.9%.

The primary growth driver was strong demand for memory used in AI servers and data centres. Robust demand significantly improved profitability, but also increased Micron's dependence on tight memory supply and elevated market prices.

Future revenue is also supported by 16 long-term supply agreements with customers. These agreements provide for multi-year memory purchases, making demand for Micron's products more predictable.

Guidance for Q4 of the 2026 financial year was also strong. The company expects to deliver another record quarter for revenue, alongside further growth in gross margin, earnings per share, and free cash flow.

This article examines Micron Technology, Inc., outlines the sources of its revenue, reviews Micron's quarterly performance, and discusses expectations for the 2026 financial year. It also provides a technical analysis of MU shares, forming the basis for the forecast for Micron stock in the second half of 2026.

About Micron Technology, Inc.

Founded in 1978, Micron Technology Inc. is a US-based company that develops and manufactures memory chips (DRAM, NAND) and provides technology solutions for data storage. Micron is one of the world’s largest producers of electronic memory, with its products used in cars, computers, mobile devices, servers, and other electronic equipment. The company was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 1984 and trades under the ticker MU.

Today, Micron continues to develop and deploy advanced memory modules and data storage technologies for the artificial intelligence, 5G networks, autonomous vehicle, and cloud computing markets.

Micron Technology, Inc.’s main revenue streams

Micron’s business model centres on developing, producing, and selling semiconductor memory modules and data storage solutions. The company’s segments are categorised by the product markets listed below:

• Personal computers and devices: this includes revenue from the sale of memory used in PCs, laptops, and workstations.
• Mobile devices: memory chips for smartphones and tablets, where Micron competes against companies producing comparable products for high-performance devices.
• Storage devices: products and solutions for NAND flash memory-based data storage.
• Embedded systems: memory components and modules for integration into systems used in the automotive and healthcare sectors, as well as the manufacturing industry.

The company provides detailed data for each segment and aggregates them into two major sectors in its report. The first sector is DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory), which accounts for a substantial share of the company’s revenues (about 70%). DRAM is used in personal computers, servers, smartphones, graphics cards and other devices. The second sector, NAND (flash memory), accounts for about 25-30% of revenues. NAND products are used in SSDs (solid-state drives), mobile devices, data storage systems and other products that require rapid and reliable access to information.

Micron Technology Inc. Q4 2024 financial results

On 25 September 2024, Micron released its Q4 2024 financial results, which covered the period ended 25 August. The company’s financial performance surprised investors and exceeded forecasts. Below is the reported data:

• Revenue: 7.75 billion USD (+93%)
• Net income: 1.34 billion USD compared to a loss of 1.17 billion USD
• Earnings per share: 1.18 USD compared to a loss of 1.07 USD
• Operating profit: 1.74 billion USD compared to a loss of 1.20 billion USD

Revenue by segment:

• DRAM: 5.33 billion USD (+69%)
• NAND: 2.36 billion USD (+31%)
• Compute and Networking: 3.01 billion USD (+152%)
• Mobile: 1.87 billion USD (+55%)
• Storage: 1.68 billion USD (+127%)
• Embedded: 1.17 billion USD (+36%)

After announcing the Q4 2024 financial results, Micron’s management underscored an impressive 93% revenue growth from the previous year, driven by strong demand for DRAM products for data centres and record NAND sales, which exceeded 1 billion USD per quarter for the first time.

Micron’s CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, noted that Micron has the best competitive positioning in its entire history and forecasted record revenue and profitability figures in Q1 2025. He also emphasised the importance of demand for artificial intelligence solutions, which helps strengthen the company’s position in the market.

Micron expects record revenue in Q1 2025, forecasting income of 8.70 billion USD (plus or minus 200 million USD) and a gross margin of 39.5%. The anticipated earnings per share will amount to 1.74 USD. These figures are considerably higher than in previous quarters, indicating growth in demand for the company’s products, particularly in the artificial intelligence and cloud computing segments.

Micron also noted that it continues to benefit from rising prices in memory and data storage markets related to increased demand for AI servers.

Micron Technology Inc. Q1 2025 financial results

On 18 December 2024, Micron published its Q1 financial results for the 2025 financial year, covering the period ended 28 November. Below are the report highlights:

• Revenue: 8.70 billion USD (+84%)
• Net income: 2.04 billion USD versus a loss of 1.05 billion USD
• Earnings per share: 1.79 USD versus a loss of 0.95 USD
• Operating profit: 2.39 billion USD versus a loss of 0.95 billion USD

Revenue by segment:

• DRAM: 6.40 billion USD (+73%)
• NAND: 2.32 billion USD (+26%)
• Compute and Networking: 4.40 billion USD (+153%)
• Mobile: 1.50 billion USD (+16%)
• Storage: 1.70 billion USD (+160%)
• Embedded: 1.10 billion USD (+6%)

Sanjay Mehrotra noted that data centres accounted for over 50% of revenue for the first time in the company’s history, driven by strong demand for AI memory chips. He also acknowledged the weakness in consumer segments such as PCs and smartphones but expressed confidence that growth would resume in the second half of the fiscal year.

For Q2 2025, Micron issued guidance below Wall Street expectations, forecasting revenue of 7.90 billion USD (± 200 million USD) and EPS of 1.43 USD (± 0.10 USD). This forecast reflects the anticipated decline in DRAM and NAND revenue due to oversupply and sluggish consumer demand.

Investors reacted negatively to the outlook, with Micron’s stock falling by over 13% after the report results were published.

Micron Technology Inc. Q2 2025 financial results

On 20 March 2025, Micron released its Q2 results for the 2025 financial year, covering the period ended 27 February. Below are the report highlights:

• Revenue: 8.05 billion USD (+38%)
• Net income: 1.78 billion USD (+273%)
• Earnings per share: 1.56 USD (+323%)
• Operating profit: 2.01 (+800%)

Revenue by segment:

• DRAM: 6.12 billion USD (+47%)
• NAND: 1.85 billion USD (+18%)
• Compute and Networking: 4.60 billion USD (+153%)
• Mobile: 1.10 billion USD (+16%)
• Storage: 1.40 billion USD (+160%)
• Embedded: 1.00 billion USD (+6%)

Sanjay Mehrotra noted that revenue from DRAM for data centres reached a new record. At the same time, income from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips rose by more than 50% from the previous quarter, exceeding 1 billion USD. He emphasised Micron’s strong competitive position and the company’s success in high-margin product categories, attributing this to an effective strategy and growing demand for memory solutions used in artificial intelligence applications.

For Q3 fiscal 2025, Micron forecast revenue of between 8.6 and 9.0 billion USD with expected EPS of between 1.47 and 1.67 USD. The company also projected a decline in gross margin to 36.5%, a 1.5 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter. This decrease was attributed to a rise in sales of lower-margin consumer products and ongoing oversupply in the NAND market, which continues to put downward pressure on prices.

Investor reaction was mixed. Following the release of the earnings report, Micron’s shares initially rose by more than 5% in after-hours trading, reflecting optimism over the strong results. However, concerns regarding the level of gross profit and rising inventory levels later led to a drop of more than 8%, making Micron one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 following the earnings release.

Micron Technology, Inc. Q3 2025 financial results

On 25 June 2025, Micron released its Q3 results for the 2025 financial year, covering the period ended 29 May. The key figures, compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year, are as follows:

• Revenue: 9.30 billion USD (+37%)
• Net income: 2.18 billion USD (+210%)
• Earnings per share: 1.91 USD (+208%)
• Operating profit: 2.49 billion (+164%)

Revenue by segment:

• DRAM: 7.07 billion USD (+50%)
• NAND: 2.15 billion USD (+4%)
• Compute and Networking: 5.06 billion USD (+97%)
• Mobile: 1.55 billion USD (–2%)
• Storage: 1.45 billion USD (+7%)
• Embedded: 1.22 billion USD (-5%)

Micron reported strong Q3 FY2025 results, significantly outperforming market expectations. Revenue reached 9.3 billion USD, up 37% year-on-year, while adjusted earnings per share rose to 1.91 USD, versus a consensus forecast of 1.60 USD. The main driver was steady growth in demand for memory used in AI systems. HBM shipments increased by approximately 50% quarter-on-quarter, and revenue from data centres more than doubled.

During the earnings call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra noted the accelerated adoption of advanced technological solutions. Production of 1-gamma DRAM using EUV lithography began ahead of schedule, and mass shipments of HBM3E were expected as early as Q4. The company also reported the start of HBM4 testing, with plans to begin volume production in 2026. These initiatives, together with expanded manufacturing capacity in the US and government support under the CHIPS Act, were shaping Micron’s strategic advantage in the AI memory segment.

Profitability also improved, with gross margin reaching 39%, exceeding the upper end of guidance. A further increase to around 42% ±1% was expected in Q4. The company planned to allocate approximately 1.2 billion USD to operating expenses in the following quarter, with R&D in HBM and next-generation memory technologies remaining a key priority.

The Q4 outlook reflected management’s optimism. Expected revenue stood at 10.7 billion USD (+38% year-on-year), and earnings per share were projected at 2.50 USD (+111% year-on-year) – both well above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Micron Technology, Inc. Q4 2025 financial results

On 23 September 2025, Micron published its Q4 results for the 2025 financial year, covering the period ended 28 August. The key figures compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year are as follows:

• Revenue: 11.31 billion USD (+46%)
• Net income: 3.47 billion USD (+158%)
• Earnings per share (EPS): 3.03 USD (+156%)
• Operating profit: 3.96 billion USD (+126%)

Revenue by segment:

• Cloud Memory Business Unit: 4.54 billion USD (+213%)
• Core Data Center Business Unit: 1.58 billion USD (–23%)
• Mobile and Client Business Unit: 3.76 billion USD (+24%)
• Automotive and Embedded Business Unit: 1.43 billion USD (+17%)

Micron’s Q4 FY2025 results came in ahead of market expectations. The company reported record revenue of 11.32 billion USD, while adjusted EPS stood at 3.03 USD – both figures exceeding the analyst consensus of 11.2 billion USD in revenue and 2.86 USD in EPS. Revenue growth was driven by exceptionally strong demand from AI-focused data centres, which became the primary source of expansion and are now the core of Micron’s business. For FY2025, data centres accounted for 56% of the company’s revenue at high gross margins, confirming a structural shift towards higher-value, higher-margin server memory and HBM modules.

In Q4 2025, Micron improved its product mix, with more shipments of server DRAM and HBM for AI systems and fewer low-cost configurations. This shift raised average sales prices and increased margins. The memory price cycle also recovered: there was a supply shortage in DRAM, and prices for NAND also rose.

In Q4, Micron generated a positive adjusted free cash flow of around 803 million USD despite significant capital expenditures. For the 2025 financial year overall, FCF exceeded 3.7 billion USD. At the same time, management had previously warned that CapEx would rise in FY2026 as the company expands DRAM and HBM capacity to capture growing AI-driven demand.

Micron issued strong guidance for the next quarter. Revenue was expected to be around 12.5 billion USD (±300 million USD), adjusted EPS around 3.75 USD (±0.15), and gross margin in the range of 50.5–52.5%. This guidance indicated that management expected continued strength in both pricing and product cycles, particularly in server DRAM and HBM, with further potential to increase profitability as AI memory accounts for an ever-larger share of total sales.

Micron Technology, Inc. Q1 2026 financial results

On 17 December 2025, Micron released its Q1 results for the 2026 financial year, covering the period ended 27 November. Below are the reported figures compared with the same period from the previous financial year:

• Revenue: 13.64 billion USD (+57%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 5.48 billion USD (+169%)
• Earnings per share: 4.78 USD (+167%)
• Operating profit: 6.42 billion USD (+168%)

Revenue by segment:

• Cloud Memory Business Unit: 5.28 billion USD (+100%)
• Core Data Center Business Unit: 2.38 billion USD (+4%)
• Mobile and Client Business Unit: 4.26 billion USD (+63%)
• Automotive and Embedded Business Unit: 1.72 billion USD (+49%)

Micron Technology delivered exceptionally strong results. Revenue reached 13.64 billion USD, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase. Net income reached 5.48 billion USD, with earnings per share at 4.78 USD. The company specifically highlighted that revenue, margins, and earnings per share were above the upper end of its own guidance. The market was equally pleased, as analysts had expected revenue of approximately 12.9 billion USD and earnings per share of around 3.96 USD, and Micron exceeded both.

The quality of the quarter is evident in the strong margins. Non-GAAP gross margin grew to 56.8%, operating margin rose to 47.0%, and operating profit reached 6.42 billion USD. For the memory and storage business, these levels are very high, reflecting strong pricing power and an advantageous product mix.

Revenue growth was broad-based across all segments. DRAM revenue totalled 10.81 billion USD, growing by 69% year-on-year, while NAND revenue totalled 2.74 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. In the quarter, DRAM prices increased by approximately 20% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND prices grew by low double digits, indicating that both price increases and product mix contributed to the profit growth. The Cloud Memory segment grew fastest, reaching 5.28 billion USD (+100% year-on-year). Mobile & Client reached 4.26 billion USD (+63% year-on-year), Automotive & Embedded reached 1.72 billion USD (+49% year-on-year), while Core Data remained at around 2.38 billion USD (+4% year-on-year).

Management's guidance for Q2 of the 2026 financial year was even stronger. The company expected non-GAAP revenue of approximately 18.7 billion USD, a gross margin of 68%, and earnings per share of approximately 8.42 USD – significantly above analysts' expectations, which had factored in much more modest figures. Looking further ahead, Micron expected further improvement in its performance throughout the 2026 financial year, planned capital expenditure of around 20 billion USD, focusing on the second half of the year. It also noted that demand from AI infrastructure and constrained production capacity will remain key drivers of the market.

Micron Technology, Inc. Q2 2026 financial results

On 18 March 2026, Micron Technology, Inc. released its Q2 results for the 2026 financial year, covering the period ending 26 February. Below are the reported figures compared with the same period of the previous financial year:

• Revenue: 23.86 billion USD (+196%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 14.02 billion USD (+686%)
• Earnings per share: 12.20 USD (+682%)
• Operating profit: 16.46 (+720%)

Revenue by segment:

• Cloud Memory Business Unit: 7.75 billion USD (+163%)
• Core Data Center Business Unit: 5.69 billion USD (+211%)
• Mobile and Client Business Unit: 7.71 billion USD (+245%)
• Automotive and Embedded Business Unit: 2.71 billion USD (+162%)

Micron Technology delivered record results for Q2 of the 2026 financial year. Revenue totalled 23.86 billion USD (+196% year-on-year), while non-GAAP net income reached 14.02 billion USD, or 12.20 USD per share, significantly exceeding the previous year's figures. Importantly, the results exceeded not only the company's own guidance but also analysts' expectations, which had projected revenue of 13.6 billion USD and EPS of around 4.78 USD.

The quarter's strength was also reflected in profitability. The non-GAAP gross margin stood at 74.9%, while the operating margin reached 69%. Operating profit totalled 16.46 billion USD, reflecting a high level of profitability driven by strong pricing and an efficient sales mix.

The sharp improvement in Micron's performance was driven by a combination of exceptionally strong demand for memory from AI infrastructure, constrained supply across the market, and strong operational execution by Micron. In its financial results presentation, the company explicitly stated that the sharp improvement in its financial results and the increase in its guidance were driven by rising AI-related memory demand, structural supply constraints, and strong operational execution. Management also noted that AI has effectively transformed memory from a standard component into a strategic asset, with Micron positioning itself as one of the key beneficiaries of this trend.

The outlook for the next quarter appeared even more optimistic. The company expected non-GAAP revenue of around 33.5 billion USD, a gross margin of approximately 81%, and earnings per share of around 19.15 USD. These projections significantly exceeded analysts' consensus estimates, which had anticipated more moderate results.

Micron Technology, Inc. Q3 2026 financial results

On 24 June 2026, Micron Technology released its Q3 2026 financial results for the quarter ended 28 May. Below are the reported figures compared with the corresponding period of the previous financial year:

• Revenue: 41.46 billion USD (+346%)
• Net income (non-GAAP): 28.86 billion USD (+1223%)
• Earnings per share: 25.11 USD (+1215%)
• Operating profit (non-GAAP): 16.46 billion (+1252%)
• Gross margin (non-GAAP): 84.9% (+45.9 percentage points.)
• Operating margin (non-GAAP): 81.2% (+54.4 percentage points)
• Free cash flow: 18.30 billion USD (+839%)

Revenue by segment:

• Cloud Memory: 13.77 billion USD (+307%)
• Core Data Center: 11.52 billion USD (+653%)
• Mobile and Client: 11.52 billion USD (+254%)
• Automotive and Embedded : 4.63 billion USD (+311%)

Micron delivered Q3 2026 financial results that significantly exceeded expectations, continuing the strong momentum seen in Q2. In the previous quarter, revenue totalled 23.86 billion USD, before rising by a further 74% in Q3 to a record 41.46 billion USD. Non-GAAP earnings per share increased from 12.20 USD to 25.11 USD, while the gross margin expanded from 74.9% to 84.9%. The reported results also significantly exceeded Micron's own guidance.

The primary growth driver was strong demand for memory used in AI servers and data centres. Combined revenue from the Cloud Memory and Core Data Center segments exceeded 25 billion USD.

However, revenue growth was driven primarily by higher pricing. Average DRAM prices increased by more than 60% compared with the previous quarter, while NAND prices rose by approximately 85%. Shipment volumes increased much more modestly. Higher pricing significantly improved Micron's profitability, but also showed that the company's results remain heavily dependent on continued tight supply in the memory market.

Another positive development was the signing of long-term customer agreements. Micron entered into 16 contracts under which customers committed to purchasing agreed volumes of memory over several years. The minimum value of deliveries under most of these agreements is estimated at approximately 100 billion USD, while customers' contractual commitments total around 22 billion USD. These agreements are expected to make Micron's future revenue more predictable and reduce the company's exposure to sharp cycles in the memory market.

Guidance for Q4 of the 2026 financial year was even stronger. Micron expects to deliver another record quarter for revenue, alongside further expansion in gross margin, continued growth in earnings per share, and a further increase in free cash flow.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for Micron Technology, Inc.

Below are the key valuation multiples for Micron Technology based on the Q3 2026 financial year results, calculated at a share price of 1,048 USD.

Calculation basis:

• TTM revenue: 90.27 billion USD
• TTM non-GAAP net income: 51.83 billion USD
• TTM non-GAAP operating income (EBIT): 60.51 billion USD
• TTM depreciation and amortisation: 9.01 billion USD
• Estimated TTM adjusted EBITDA: 69.52 billion USD
• TTM adjusted free cash flow: 29.91 billion USD
• Cash, marketable investments, and restricted cash: 30.16 billion USD
• Current debt: 0.582 billion USD
• Long-term debt: 5.140 billion USD
• Total debt: 5.722 billion USD
• Net cash: 24.433 billion USD
• Micron shareholders' equity: 100.724 billion USD
• Enterprise value (EV): 1,157.567 billion USD
• TTM interest expense: 0.230 billion USD
• Forecast non-GAAP EPS FY2027: approximately 112 USD

Valuation multiples analysis for Micron Technology – conclusion

Based on its valuation multiples, Micron presents a mixed picture. A Forward P/E ratio above 9 is supported by rapid earnings growth, strong demand for AI-related memory, and the company's net cash position.

At the same time, a P/S ratio of 13.1, an EV/Sales multiple of 12.8, and a P/FCF multiple of 39.5 indicate an elevated valuation. The company's current market capitalisation already reflects expectations that memory prices and strong profitability will remain at current levels.

At a share price of 1,048 USD, Micron shares are best suited to investors who expect the shortage of DRAM, NAND, and HBM to persist. The primary risk is a decline in memory prices and margins, which could quickly weaken the company's valuation.

Expert forecasts for Micron Technology, Inc

• Barchart: 31 out of 41 analysts assigned a Strong Buy rating, 5 assigned a Moderate Buy rating, and 5 rated the shares as Hold. The upper price target is 1,750 USD, and the lower bound is 249 USD.
• MarketBeat: 36 out of 39 analysts assigned a Buy rating, while 3 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 2,000 USD, and the lower bound is 155 USD.
• TipRanks: 28 out of 29 analysts assigned a Buy rating, while 1 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 2,200 USD, and the lower bound is 1,100 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 29 out of 43 analysts assigned a Strong Buy rating, 9 assigned a Buy rating, and 5 rated the shares as Hold. The upper price target is 2,200 USD, and the lower bound is 361 USD.

Micron Technology, Inc. stock price forecast for 2026

Against the backdrop of rising memory demand, Micron's revenue continues to grow, driving a rapid rise in its share price. Over the past three months, MU shares have gained 290%. Following such a strong rally, the moving averages continue to indicate a robust uptrend, while the Stochastic oscillator would typically signal overbought conditions. An ascending channel has formed on the chart, with MU shares continuing to trade within its boundaries. The price is now approaching the upper boundary of the channel. Based on the current price structure of Micron shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows:

The primary forecast for Micron shares assumes a breakout above the channel's upper boundary, followed by an advance equivalent to the height of the channel, with the next target at 1,650 USD.

The alternative forecast for Micron stock should be considered if the price rebounds from the upper boundary of the channel. Under this scenario, MU shares could enter another corrective phase, with support at 1,000 USD as the downside target. A rebound from that level would signal the completion of the correction and the potential resumption of the uptrend.

Risks of investing in Micron Technology, Inc. stock

Investing in Micron Technology’s stock involves several risks that may adversely impact the company’s income and revenue:

• Memory market cyclicality: the semiconductor industry, particularly the memory segment, is highly cyclical, experiencing periods of fluctuating demand and pricing. A prolonged downturn in segments such as NAND and DRAM could lead to overstocking, falling prices, and reduced profitability.
• Intense competition in the industry: Micron faces fierce competition from major players like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Constant investment in technology and innovation is vital in such a highly competitive environment. If the company fails to keep pace with industry developments, it may lose market share, leading to lower profitability.
• Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions: Micron operates in the global market, generating significant revenue outside the US. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and cybersecurity compliance checks may restrain sales and operations. For example, Micron’s products have been scrutinised in China, highlighting the risks tied to international markets.

Investors must carefully consider these risks when evaluating an investment in Micron Technology, as they could significantly impact the company’s financial performance and stock price.

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