Brent sheds risk as talks continue

Brent prices are slipping to 92.60 USD on Tuesday. Tensions in the Middle East have eased – is there a chance of a pause? Find more details in our analysis for 9 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent crude surged the day before and then fell just as quickly
• The Middle East factor remains the main driver for the market
• Brent forecast for 9 June 2026: 91.50

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude stabilised near 92.60 USD per barrel on Tuesday after a sharp pullback from intraday highs. Prices came under pressure following reports of easing tensions in the Middle East after Iran and Israel agreed to stop mutual attacks.

Over the weekend, the sides exchanged strikes, jeopardising the fragile ceasefire and fuelling concerns about a broader conflict in the region. However, signals then emerged of a willingness to return to the diplomatic process.

Donald Trump called on both sides to de-escalate and confirmed that negotiations with Tehran are proceeding. According to him, once the conflict ends, oil prices may decline, as some of the geopolitical premium will be removed from prices.

Nevertheless, risks for the market remain. Despite the current ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz still remains effectively blocked by both the US and Iran. This continues to restrict supplies of oil, petroleum products, and natural gas from the Persian Gulf and keeps energy prices above pre-conflict levels.

As a result, the market remains caught between two opposing factors: hopes for a diplomatic settlement and continuing risks of supply disruptions through one of the world’s most important energy routes.

The Brent forecast is mixed.

Technical outlook

Following a strong rally in early June, the market moved into a correction phase on the Brent H4 chart. Quotes failed to hold above resistance in the 97.50–98.00 USD per barrel area and turned downwards. Prices are currently trading around 92.60–93.00 USD, having approached a local support level. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating lower volatility after last week’s sharp moves.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. Prices have consolidated below the middle Bollinger Band and are moving in the lower part of the indicator range, signalling that sellers maintain an advantage. The nearest support level is located in the 91.50–92.00 USD area, where the lower boundary of the current range runs, with resistance in the 94.50–95.50 USD zone. As long as Brent remains below this area, the risks of a continued correction remain in place.

The indicators confirm weakening upward momentum. MACD is near the zero line and continues to decline, signalling fading buying activity. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved into oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound, although it is not yet providing convincing signals of a trend reversal. The baseline scenario remains consolidation with a downward bias and a possible test of the 91.50–92.00 USD per barrel support area.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward correction within a medium-term upward move
• Key resistance levels: 95.50 and 98.00
• Key support levels: 91.50 and 90.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 95.50 resistance level would confirm the resumption of Brent growth amid ongoing risks of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations.

• Take Profit: 98.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 94.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 91.50 support level would intensify pressure on Brent and confirm a corrective wave amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict and the restoration of shipping in the region.

• Take Profit: 90.00 USD
• Stop Loss: 92.30 USD

Risk factors

The oil market is still sensitive to news from the Middle East. Brent is supported by supply restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty around negotiations between the US and Iran, and the risks of further disruptions in the energy market. At the same time, signals of a de-escalation in the conflict and progress in diplomatic negotiations are limiting the upside potential and contributing to a correction.

Summary

Brent remains highly volatile due to the Middle East factor, with the forecast for today, 9 June 2026, suggesting a decline to 91.50.

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