EURUSD Forecast 2026–2027: Technical Analysis, Price Levels & Predictions

Disclaimer: This article is prepared on the basis of reputable financial sources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research; however, economic changes may significantly affect market conditions and alter the EURUSD forecast. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making financial decisions.

EURUSD is trading near 1.1600 as of early September 2026, maintaining an uptrend with corrective elements. The pair has extended its recovery from the July lows and is now testing the middle Bollinger Band on the weekly chart, while on the daily timeframe price is pulling back toward EMA65 and EMA200 — moving averages that have flipped from resistance to support. The fundamental backdrop is finely balanced: the eurozone GDP recovery to 1.0% year-on-year is narrowing the growth gap with the US (1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1), but expectations of a September Fed rate hike have risen sharply to 62–70% following hawkish signals from Fed chairman Kevin Warsh. Two central bank meetings just days apart — the ECB on September 9–10 and the FOMC on September 15–16 — will determine the next directional move. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path toward 1.1805 and 1.1915.

Key takeaways: EURUSD forecast

EURUSD technical analysis

The technical picture shows a market in the corrective phase of an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Daily oscillators have rotated to Sell as price pulls back from recent highs, but the weekly timeframe holds Buy signals on MACD and Stochastic, and both daily moving averages have flipped from resistance to support. This combination — short-term correction within a constructive medium-term structure — is what shapes the trading approach below: long entries are preferred after the correction completes rather than at current levels.

Indicator summary

Daily timeframe (D1)

On the D1 chart, EURUSD is returning toward EMA65 after an advance and is testing EMA200 from above. The two moving averages crossed in June 2026 and have since moved sideways. Over recent weeks, price has been forming growth waves punctuated by corrections — and at this stage the moving averages have become support rather than resistance. A bounce from this zone would be the signal for continuation of the upward move.

RSI14 continues to move down from the 70 level, reflecting the ongoing corrective phase. The MACD histogram is above zero but gradually declining, while the signal line has exited the histogram zone and is also heading toward the zero level. Given that EURUSD is forming an uptrend with periodic corrections, the optimal approach for long positions is to wait for a clear buy signal from RSI14 — a cross of level 30 from below — combined with the MACD histogram returning below zero and then reversing. Short positions become viable only if price crosses both EMA200 and EMA65 to the downside and consolidates below them. Given the prevailing market structure, opening long positions after the correction completes remains the preferred strategy.

H4 timeframe

On the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading near 1.1600. Price has bounced from EMA200 and is testing EMA65 from below. Following the EMA65/EMA200 crossover, both moving averages continue their upward trajectory beneath the price — structural confirmation that the intermediate-term uptrend remains intact despite the short-term pullback.

The Stochastic oscillator, having tested level 20, remains in oversold territory — a signal that an upward wave is likely to form in the near term. The first upside target is the 1.1700 resistance; if the euro continues to strengthen, price could form a growth wave and test 1.1805. Before that advance materialises, a deeper corrective move toward 1.1500 should not be excluded — such a dip would represent a more attractive long entry within the broader uptrend.

Weekly timeframe (W)

On the weekly chart, EURUSD is testing the 1.1600 level in the vicinity of the middle Bollinger Band — a position that typically precedes a bounce in the form of an upward wave. At this stage price is building a growth wave, consistent with the recovery structure that began after the July lows.

The MACD histogram is gradually contracting toward the zero level, with the signal line having exited the histogram zone and now also positioned below zero. This configuration indicates that selling pressure is fading rather than intensifying. In the longer-term perspective, price can continue its advance: a confirmed break above 1.1700 with consolidation above that level would mark the start of a new growth wave toward 1.1805 and 1.1915.

Trading scenarios

Key EURUSD price levels

The following levels are derived from structural analysis across the Daily, H4 and Weekly timeframes — historical swing highs and lows, Bollinger Band reference zones and key psychological round numbers.

Key intermediate levels for current trading: 1.1500 (near-term support and the invalidation level for the sideways scenario), 1.1350 (secondary support), and 1.1280 (the level whose breach would activate the bearish scenario toward 1.1080).

Psychological levels: At round numbers — 1.0000, 1.1200, 1.1400, 1.1500 and beyond — price has typically bounced several times before breaking through. When a breakout fails to sustain, these levels become turning points where the prevailing trend reverses direction.

EURUSD forecast by horizon

Short-term expectations are expressed through level-based conditions rather than fixed dated prices, keeping the forecast valid between scheduled reviews. All horizons currently carry a bullish bias, with the near-term range reflecting the corrective consolidation ahead of the September central bank meetings.

The year-end range has narrowed since the August review, reflecting a tighter institutional consensus: the lower bound (1.1300) matches J.P. Morgan's bearish target, while the upper bound (1.2500) matches Goldman Sachs. The decisive catalysts are only days apart — the ECB meeting on September 9–10 and the FOMC on September 15–16. A hawkish Fed combined with a final ECB hike would compress the pair toward the lower half of the range; a Fed hold with dovish guidance would open the path toward 1.2000 and above.

What drives the EURUSD price

EURUSD is essentially a relative performance contest between the US and eurozone economies. The rate moves not because of the absolute strength of the euro or dollar, but because of which side appears stronger relative to the other — across monetary policy, inflation, growth, capital flows and geopolitical risk.

ECB monetary policy

At its July 22–23, 2026 meeting, the ECB Governing Council held its key rate unchanged at 2.40%, emphasising that the current policy stance remains sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation gradually back to the 2% target. The pause also reflected elevated uncertainty: the ECB is waiting for the full inflationary effects of the energy shock to materialise and considers current data insufficient to assess its complete impact. The Council adopted a wait-and-see position, stressing that further steps will be strictly data-dependent, and made no commitment to any specific rate path — preserving room for manoeuvre should economic conditions shift. The next policy meeting takes place September 9–10, 2026 in Berlin, with markets now largely pricing a hike to 2.50%.

Federal Reserve policy

The FOMC held the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 28–29 meeting, with the vote splitting 9–3: three committee members supported an immediate 25 basis point increase. This was the most significant internal dissent within the Fed since 2016. The market does not expect an immediate hike but is concerned about entrenched long-term inflation and the fiscal deficit — creating a scenario in which prolonged Fed inaction could require sharper moves later. The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16, 2026, and expectations of a hike have risen sharply to 62–70% following hawkish signals from Fed chairman Kevin Warsh.

Inflation differential (Eurozone vs US)

Inflation in the eurozone and the US is currently following divergent trajectories, creating an almost contradictory picture. In Europe, August prices accelerated noticeably: eurozone CPI rose to 3.3% amid a sharp increase in energy costs. In the US, the CPI is expected at 3.4% with core inflation around 2.5%. Markets, however, are focused less on the headline figures than on the underlying dynamic: US core inflation remains stubbornly elevated and the Fed continues to talk hawkishly, so investors are still pricing another US rate increase. Meanwhile, the ECB hike to 2.50% scheduled for September 10 is largely anticipated and appears likely to be the final step in this cycle. It is precisely this divergence in expectations about future central bank actions — rather than the inflation data itself — that is driving the currency market: the Fed can still tighten further, while the ECB is signalling it is ready to pause.

GDP growth differential

The economic differential between the US and the eurozone continues to narrow. Final data confirmed that US Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.5% (from 2.1% in Q1), while the eurozone delivered an unexpected recovery from zero to +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year — the best quarterly result in a year. Markets trade trends and surprises rather than absolute figures, and the current picture reads as: the US is losing momentum while Europe is reviving. The narrowing growth gap reduces the dollar's structural advantage and creates fundamental support for EURUSD. Annual forecasts from Goldman Sachs (2.8% US vs 1.3% eurozone) still favour America, but the quarterly dynamic works against it — investors are registering a shift in narrative, and the pair is trading near 1.1600 awaiting signals from the September Fed and ECB meetings that could either entrench this trend or reverse it.

Geopolitics, trade & USD index

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 99.50, remaining under pressure following the decline in Treasury yields. At the same time, the dollar is receiving powerful support from two factors: the escalation of the US–Iran conflict, which has pushed oil above 94.00 USD and intensified safe-haven demand, and the sharp rise in September Fed hike expectations to 62–70% after hawkish signals from Kevin Warsh. This creates a perfect storm for EURUSD, which is trading near 1.1600 under pressure from a firmer dollar. An additional source of euro weakness is the rise in energy prices, which worsens the eurozone's terms of trade — the region imports the bulk of its energy, making it structurally more exposed to oil price shocks than the US.

What could push EURUSD lower

• Fed tightening (rates higher for longer): A rate increase would make USD assets more attractive to investors, once again leaving the euro at a disadvantage with its comparatively low interest rate — September hike odds now stand at 62–70%.
• Sustained USD rally (DXY above 105): A DXY move above 105 would trigger capital rotation into the dollar; the logic is straightforward — an expensive dollar with high yields attracts flows.
• Eurozone economic slowdown / recession risk: The eurozone economy is still losing to the US; a further rise in energy prices could push the already-weakened industrial sector into losses and provoke a recession.
• ECB cutting rates faster than Fed: An ECB rate cut would trigger euro weakening relative to the dollar, and in an extreme scenario the pair could approach parity.
• Geopolitical escalation: Further escalation of the Middle East conflict would continue to support USD as investors reprice risk and rotate into safe-haven assets.

Bank & institution forecasts

The institutional consensus has become more dispersed in the September update, with targets ranging from 1.1300 (J.P. Morgan) to 1.2500 (Goldman Sachs). Deutsche Bank, UBS and Morgan Stanley cluster around 1.2000, making that level the effective centre of gravity for the year-end consensus. Bank of America and Citi Research represent the more cautious camp.

Long-term EURUSD outlook (2027)

Long-term EURUSD forecasts remain wide — 1.1000 to 1.3000 — reflecting genuine uncertainty about the relative paths of Fed and ECB policy normalisation. The bull case (1.2000–1.3000) assumes the Fed pauses after September and begins easing through 2027, eurozone growth continues the recovery seen in Q2, and energy prices stabilise. The bear case (1.1000–1.1300) requires the Fed to tighten further while the ECB concludes its hiking cycle, combined with a renewed eurozone slowdown driven by energy costs. RoboForex Analysis Department maintains a 1.1000–1.3000 range for 2027 with a bullish bias, with 1.2000 representing the most likely convergence point for the institutional consensus.

How to trade EURUSD

EURUSD offers multiple ways to gain exposure, each suited to different trading styles, time horizons and risk appetites.

Pros and cons of trading EURUSD

EURUSD forecast methodology

Conclusion

EURUSD is consolidating near 1.1600 within an uptrend that has been in place since the July lows. The technical structure is constructive despite the short-term correction: on the daily chart, EMA65 and EMA200 have flipped from resistance to support and price is testing them from above; on H4, both moving averages trend upward beneath price with the Stochastic in oversold territory after testing level 20; and on the weekly, price sits at the middle Bollinger Band with the MACD histogram contracting toward zero. Daily oscillators have rotated to Sell, but this reflects a correction within the uptrend rather than a reversal — which is why long entries after the pullback completes remain the preferred approach. The key trigger is a confirmed break above 1.1700 with consolidation, opening the path to 1.1805 and 1.1915.

Fundamentally, the picture is finely balanced ahead of two back-to-back central bank events. Supporting the euro: the US–eurozone growth gap has narrowed sharply, with US Q2 GDP slowing to 1.5% while the eurozone recovered to 1.0% — the best quarterly result in a year. Weighing on it: September Fed hike expectations have jumped to 62–70% after hawkish signals from Kevin Warsh, oil above 94.00 USD is worsening the eurozone's terms of trade, and the anticipated ECB hike to 2.50% on September 10 is expected to be the last of the cycle. The ECB meeting on September 9–10 and the FOMC on September 15–16 will resolve this tension. Institutional year-end targets span 1.1300 to 1.2500, with 1.2000 the consensus centre.

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