Brent remains under pressure amid US-Iran negotiations

Brent quotes are declining, pressured by expectations of restored supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices currently stand at 82.08 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 16 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Sellers confidently broke above the key support level at 88.05 USD
• The market reacted positively to reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran
• A Double Top reversal pattern is forming on the daily Brent chart
• Brent forecast for 16 June 2026: 77.50

Fundamental analysis

Brent oil quotes are declining for the fourth consecutive trading session. Sellers confidently broke below the key support level at 88.05 USD, adding to pressure on the market and opening the way for a further decline.

The main driver of the sell-off remains reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. The market reacted positively to information about the electronic signing of a memorandum on the start of a settlement of the Middle East crisis. Market participants expect the implementation of the agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and normalise oil supplies from the Persian Gulf countries.

At the same time, investors remain cautious. Even if the sides reach final agreements, supplies will need time to return to pre-crisis volumes. It is necessary to restore insurance cover for marine transport, create acceptable conditions for shipowners and operators to return to the region, resume production at certain fields, and repair the damage to infrastructure.

Despite the remaining risks, the market is already pricing in a scenario of easing geopolitical tensions. As a result, quotes are declining, while Brent technical analysis suggests the likelihood of a larger downward move developing. A Double Top reversal pattern continues to form on the daily chart, and its completion suggests a decline towards 65.00 USD.

Technical outlook

Brent quotes continue to move within a descending channel. After rebounding from its lower boundary, prices remain under pressure from sellers, who also manage to hold prices below the EMA-65, confirming continued bearish momentum. The Brent forecast for today suggests a further decline, with a target at 77.50 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable for the downside scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator tested the resistance line and formed a bearish crossover, signalling the probability of a renewed downward move. A breakout below the local support level, with prices consolidating below 81.75 USD, would further confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests increased buying activity if prices break through the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidate above 84.05 USD. Such a signal would cancel the scenario of a further decline and open the door for a bullish correction towards 88.50 USD.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: M30 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 83.50 and 112.45
• Key support levels: 89.38 and 85.10

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the local support level at 81.75 USD would confirm stronger bearish pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 77.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 83.65 USD

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout through the upper boundary of the descending channel, with consolidation above 84.05, would indicate renewed bullish pressure and signal continued growth.

• Take Profit: 88.50 USD
• Stop Loss: 82.05 USD

Risk factors

The main risks to the downside scenario are linked to a possible breakdown or delay in negotiations between the US and Iran, which could reinstate the geopolitical premium in oil prices. An additional uncertainty factor is the probability of a technical rebound after a sharp decline, especially if prices consolidate above 84.05 USD.

Summary

A confident breakout below the 88.05 USD support level has reinforced bearish sentiment in the oil market. Expectations of restored supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and a possible increase in supply from the Persian Gulf countries continue to weigh on prices. Brent technical analysis suggests continued downward momentum: prices remain below the EMA-65, while a Double Top reversal pattern continues to form on the daily chart, with a potential downside target at 65.00 USD. Consolidation below 81.75 USD will provide an additional signal in favour of further decline and open the way to 77.50 USD.

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