Brent crude falls as the situation in the Middle East improves

Brent quotes remain under pressure amid the rapid recovery of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of higher crude exports from Iran. Prices currently stand at 73.08 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 25 June 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Quotes have reached new lows since the start of the conflict in the Middle East
• The market is pricing in a rapid recovery of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz
• Possible easing of US sanctions may increase global oil supply
• Brent forecast for 25 June 2026: 81.55

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are falling for the fourth consecutive trading session. Selling pressure intensified after a confident breakout below the 77.05 USD support level. Quotes fell to their lowest levels since the start of the military conflict in the Middle East amid expectations of a rapid recovery of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

An additional factor behind the decline came from statements by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who reported that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has almost returned to pre-conflict levels. This eased market concerns over possible supply disruptions.

Investors are also pricing in the probability of higher oil exports from Iran. Easing sanction pressure from Washington as part of negotiations to resolve the conflict may lead to higher global supply and increase pressure on quotes.

Such a sharp fall in prices came as a surprise to market participants. Traders are revising their assessments and increasingly factoring in a scenario of an accelerated return of Middle Eastern oil to the global market, although just a few weeks ago such expectations seemed overly optimistic.

Technical outlook

Brent quotes continue to decline amid a steady downtrend, but a Wedge reversal pattern appears to be forming near the key 71.55 USD support level. This increases the probability of the current downward wave ending and the market shifting to a corrective recovery. Today’s Brent forecast suggests a rebound from the support level and growth towards 81.55 USD.

The technical picture continues to suggest a potential upside scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and is forming a bullish divergence, indicating weakening downward momentum. A breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge pattern, with prices consolidating above 74.05 USD, would be an additional signal of growth.

An alternative scenario suggests increased selling pressure. A breakout and consolidation below the 71.75 USD support level would cancel the corrective growth scenario and indicate that the downtrend remains intact with the potential for a deeper decline.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 75.00 and 81.65
• Key support levels: 71.55 and 66.50

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, with prices consolidating above 74.05, would indicate the start of a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 81.65
• Stop Loss: 71.55

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the local support level would cancel the formation of the Wedge reversal pattern and indicate stronger selling pressure.

• Take Profit: 66.50
• Stop Loss: 72.65

Risk factors

The main risk to the upside scenario is a breakout below the 71.75 USD support level, which will cancel the formation of the reversal pattern and confirm the continuation of the downtrend with increased selling pressure.

Summary

Technical analysis of Brent suggests the downward correction is likely to end, with prices rising towards 81.55 USD, provided that the 71.75 USD support level holds and the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern is broken.

comprehensive gold forecast: technical analysis across three timeframes, trading scenarios with specific entry levels, Fed policy and central bank demand outlook, and institutional predictions for 2026 and beyond.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Where is gold headed after pulling back from the all-time high of 5,597 USD? XAUUSD is consolidating near 4,518 USD between key levels 4,220 USD and 4,855 USD, with major banks targeting 5,243–6,200 USD by year-end. Read our