Brent declines after breaking the key 72.15 USD support level

Brent quotes remain under pressure amid growing global supply and lower geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf region, currently standing at 70.83 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 2 July 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran has improved market sentiment
• Investors expect a further increase in global oil supply after the crisis is resolved
• Expectations of oversupply continue to put pressure on Brent quotes
• Brent forecast for 2 July 2026: 66.65

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude continues to decline after a confident breakout below the 72.15 USD support level. Quotes remain under pressure amid rising supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and growing expectations of progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran.

Oil shipments through the strategically important strait have exceeded 10 million barrels per day, supported by the US military. At the same time, Iranian oil exports rose sharply after the lifting of the US naval blockade and exceeded 40 million barrels.

Traders note growing optimism: the more oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the lower the concerns about supply disruptions. Market participants believe that once the crisis has been fully resolved, global production may reach record levels, which would continue to pressure Brent prices.

Technical outlook

Brent quotes continue to decline amid a steady downtrend. Sellers are confidently holding prices below the MA-65, confirming continued bearish momentum. Today’s Brent forecast suggests a further decline with a target at 66.65 USD.

The technical picture still suggests a high probability of a downside scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning from oversold territory, set to test the descending trend line. A rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation below 70.25 USD, would further signal a continued fall.

An alternative scenario suggests increased buying activity. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above the 71.85 USD resistance level would confirm the end of the current downward phase and indicate a deeper bullish correction.

Brent overview

• Asset: Brent
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 71.80 and 73.75
• Key support levels: 70.20 and 68.35

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation below 70.25, would indicate increased bearish pressure.

• Take Profit: 66.65
• Stop Loss: 72.05

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with prices consolidating above the local resistance level at 71.85, would create conditions for a bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 75.05
• Stop Loss: 71.55

Risk factors

The main risks to the Brent downside scenario today remain a possible further easing of geopolitical tensions, which may fuel expectations of oversupply and trigger short-term corrective rebounds upwards. An additional risk factor is consolidation above 71.85 USD, which may strengthen bullish pressure.

Summary

Increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and rising Iranian oil exports are increasing expectations of oversupply in the global market, weighing on oil prices. Brent technical analysis indicates that consolidation below 70.25 USD will confirm downward momentum and increase the likelihood of a continued decline towards the target level of 66.65 USD.

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