XAUUSD remains under pressure from the Fed: gold quotes may decline to 4,050 USD

XAUUSD partially recovered after yesterday’s decline, but hawkish Fed rhetoric continues to weigh on gold. The main scenario предполагает a break of support at 4,235 USD and a decline in quotes to 4,050 USD. More details are in our analysis for 18 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Hawkish Fed rhetoric is limiting XAUUSD’s recovery potential
• Gold is still trading in a downtrend
• A break of support at 4,235 USD may strengthen the bearish scenario and open the way for a decline in quotes
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 June 2026: 4,050

Fundamental analysis

Analysis of XAUUSD for 18 June 2026 shows that gold is recovering after yesterday’s decline against the backdrop of hawkish Fed rhetoric and is trading around 4,316 USD per ounce. Quotes received support from news of a temporary agreement between the US and Iran, which reduced tension around the Strait of Hormuz and led to a further decline in oil prices. For gold, this became a short-term positive factor, as lower oil prices reduce inflation concerns, while some traders started closing short positions after the previous day’s decline in quotes.

But the main factor for XAUUSD remains the Fed decision. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the updated forecasts showed that almost half of Fed members allow for a rate increase by the end of the year. After the meeting, US Treasury yields rose, while the dollar held near a two-month high. This is limiting gold’s upside potential, because when rates are high, investors more often choose yield-bearing USD assets, while gold does not generate interest income.

As a result, the forecast for the XAUUSD price on 18 June remains moderately negative. On the one hand, lower geopolitical tension and falling oil prices are helping gold recover. On the other hand, the Fed’s hawkish signal, rising bond yields, and a strong dollar are limiting the room for sustainable growth.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD quotes rebounded from the downwards trendline, which points to continued pressure from sellers. The MACD indicator is in negative territory, but it has approached the zero mark. At the current stage, this move looks like a correction within the downtrend.

The Stochastic indicator is moving out of the overbought area, which points to the end of the correction and increases the probability of a renewed decline in quotes. If sellers keep the initiative, XAUUSD may once again move towards testing the nearest support at 4,235 USD.

As a result, the main forecast for XAUUSD on 18 June assumes a break of support at 4,235 USD, followed by a decline in quotes to 4,050 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downwards
• Key resistance levels: 4,370 and 4,580
• Key support levels: 4,235 and 4,050

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of support at 4,235 USD may trigger a further decline in quotes within the downtrend. The nearest target of this move will be support at 4,050 USD

• Take Profit: 4,050
• Stop Loss: 4,270

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of resistance at 4,370 USD will coincide with a break of the downwards trendline, which may signal the end of the downtrend and the start of a more prolonged rise in quotes. Within this trade idea, the target for short-term growth is the nearest resistance at 4,580 USD.

• Take Profit: 4,580
• Stop Loss: 4,314

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD downside scenario will come from today’s US economic data, especially the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims. If the data come in weaker than expected, the dollar and bond yields may decline, which will support gold and hinder a further fall in quotes.

Summary

Against the backdrop of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric regarding future monetary policy, gold remains under pressure. A break of support at 4,235 USD may strengthen bearish sentiment in XAUUSD and lead to a decline in quotes to the next support at 4,050 USD.

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