XAUUSD aims to test support at 4,035 USD

Pressure on XAUUSD quotes is increasing ahead of the release of the key PCE inflation report, with prices currently standing at 4,125 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 23 June 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Sellers held the key resistance level at 4,215 USD
• Pressure on gold continues amid expectations of further Fed tightening
• The market is awaiting the release of the May US PCE report
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 June 2026: 4,060

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes resumed their decline after yesterday’s correction. Sellers managed to hold the key resistance level at 4,215 USD, which maintains the risk of a further downward move. The nearest target for the bears could be the local low of 4,035 USD.

Gold remains under pressure, as persistent expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening outweigh positive sentiment linked to ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran. Iran’s foreign minister stated that Tehran had achieved some easing of the sanctions regime, including oil and petrochemical exports waivers, the lifting of the naval blockade, and the release of some frozen assets.

This week, investors will also focus on the May PCE report. Stronger-than-expected data may strengthen expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. This sentiment is supported by recent statements by new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who stressed the need to restore price stability in the US.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes have moved out of the ascending corrective channel and reached a local support level. The XAUUSD forecast for today suggests a continued decline towards 4,020 USD.

The technical picture still suggests that sellers have the upper hand. The Stochastic Oscillator rebounded from the descending resistance line and formed a bearish crossover, signalling renewed downward momentum. A breakout below a local support level, with prices consolidating below 4,120 USD, would further confirm the decline.

An alternative scenario suggests stronger buyer activity if prices break the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidate above 4,195 USD. This signal would cancel the downside scenario and open the potential for an upward correction towards 4,265 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M15 (intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,165 and 4,205
• Key support levels: 4,120 and 4,065

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the local low, with prices consolidating below 4,120 USD, would increase bearish pressure and indicate an acceleration of the decline towards 4,020 USD.

• Take Profit: 4,020
• Stop Loss: 4,140

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above 4,195 USD would indicate a slowdown in the decline and could trigger a strong upward correction.

• Take Profit: 4,245
• Stop Loss: 4,165

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains a breakout and consolidation above 4,195 USD. An additional risk factor is a possible deterioration in the macroeconomic backdrop for the dollar in the event of weaker-than-expected PCE data, which may strengthen demand for gold.

Summary

As long as XAUUSD quotes remain below the 4,215 USD resistance level, the scenario of a further decline remains the most likely, with the potential to test 4,035 USD amid expectations of strong PCE data and hawkish Fed rhetoric.

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