Gold (XAUUSD) is cautiously optimistic as risks have diminished

Gold (XAUUSD) prices returned above 4,000 USD, supported by lower inflation risks and the Federal Reserve’s moderate outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 2 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose and then paused, balancing within a price range
• The likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike is estimated to be at least 60%
• XAUUSD forecast for 2 July 2026: 3,944 or 4,117

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) stabilised above 4,000 USD per troy ounce on Thursday after falling to eight-month lows earlier in the week. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh supported the market, as he noted a decline in inflation expectations over the past month. He stated that there is currently no need for an immediate interest rate hike. However, returning inflation to the target level remains the Federal Reserve’s main priority.

US labour market data became an additional factor. The ADP report showed that private sector employment growth in June came in weaker than expected. Investors are now focused on the release of the official US labour market statistics, Nonfarm Payrolls, as they may significantly affect expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future actions.

Despite softer signals from the regulator, the market still estimates the probability of a September interest rate hike at more than 60%. This limits the upside potential of the precious metal.

Reduced inflation risks also support gold (XAUUSD). Higher oil supply volumes through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in indirect negotiations between the US and Iran pushed oil prices lower, somewhat improving sentiment in commodity markets.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is cautious.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after a sharp decline to the local low around 3,944, XAUUSD quotes entered a recovery phase. Prices have climbed above 4,060, but are still trading below the key resistance level at 4,117. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing after a period of high volatility, indicating that the market is consolidating and the strength of the previous downward momentum is waning.

The technical picture remains neutral with a moderately negative bias. The nearest resistance level is located in the 4,085–4,117 zone, where seller activity repeatedly intensified earlier. The main support level lies around 3,944. As long as prices have failed to consolidate above 4,117, it is premature to talk about a full-fledged upward reversal. The baseline scenario remains range movement with the risk of a repeated test of the support level.

The indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD remains below the zero mark, but the histogram continues to reduce its negative values, reflecting a gradual easing of selling pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator turned downwards after leaving the upper part of the range, suggesting a short-term correction after the recent recovery. In the near term, the market will most likely continue to consolidate in the 3,944–4,117 range in anticipation of new fundamental drivers.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderately negative bias
• Key resistance levels: 4,085 and 4,117
• Key support levels: 3,944 and 3,900

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 3,944 USD support level would confirm renewed downward momentum and open the way to a repeated test of the 3,900 USD area amid ongoing expectations of further Fed policy tightening.

• Take Profit: 3,900
• Stop Loss: 3,980

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 4,085 USD resistance level would signal a new recovery wave with a target in the 4,117 USD area. Weak US labour market data and a further decline in inflation expectations may provide additional support to buyers.

• Take Profit: 4,117
• Stop Loss: 4,045

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD downside scenario remains a possible weakening of the US dollar following the release of macroeconomic statistics and a further decline in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Weak US labour market data and continued demand for safe-haven assets may provide additional support for gold.

Summary

Gold prices are rising moderately in response to lower inflation risks. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 2 July 2026, suggests consolidation within the 3,944–4,117 range.

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