XAUUSD retains the potential to resume growth

XAUUSD quotes remain under pressure; however, expectations of Fed monetary policy easing are limiting the potential for a further decline. Prices currently stand at 4,154 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 6 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57 thousand in June
• June employment growth was the weakest in the last four months
• Weak labour market data fuelled expectations for looser Federal Reserve monetary policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 July 2026: 4,375

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting downwards after three consecutive trading sessions of gains. Despite the current pullback, the overall technical picture remains favourable for buyers. The nearest support level is located at 4,100 USD. If buyers hold prices above this mark, the next upside target could be the 4,355 USD resistance level.

Weaker-than-expected US labour market data and falling oil prices supported gold and forced market participants to revise their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. According to the report published last week, US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57 thousand in June, marking the weakest increase in the last four months and coming in well below the market forecast of 110 thousand. Against this backdrop, investors reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meetings.

At the same time, the US unemployment rate reached 4.2%, beating market expectations. Analysts had forecast a reading of 4.3% in line with the previous month’s figure.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are rebounding from the upper boundary of the descending channel. At the same time, buyers consolidated above the EMA-65, indicating stronger bullish momentum. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests further growth towards 4,375 USD.

The technical picture remains favourable for buyers. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned downwards from overbought territory and is approaching the support line, retaining the potential for a new buy signal. A breakout of the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 4,180 USD, would further confirm the upward move.

An alternative scenario suggests that sellers may regain the initiative if the lower boundary of the ascending channel is broken and quotes consolidate below 4,100 USD. This signal will cancel the current bullish scenario and increase the probability of a deeper downward correction with a target near 3,970 USD.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 4,175 and 4,305
• Key support levels: 4,105 and 3,970

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 4,180 USD, would indicate stronger bullish pressure.

• Take Profit: 4,375
• Stop Loss: 4,145

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with prices consolidating below 4,100 USD, would signal a continued decline and renewed downward momentum.

• Take Profit: 3,970
• Stop Loss: 4,125

Risk factors

The main risks to the upside scenario remain a possible strengthening of the US dollar if Federal Reserve rate expectations are revised towards a more hawkish stance, as well as a deterioration in the technical picture should prices settle below the key support level at 4,100 USD.

Summary

Despite the current correction, gold retains the potential for renewed growth amid expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Today’s XAUUSD forecast remains moderately bullish as long as prices hold above 4,100 USD, which leaves room for growth towards 4,375 USD.

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