Gold (XAUUSD) as a safe-haven asset: the market needs protection again

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 4,124 USD. The Middle East is at risk, and everyone needs safe-haven assets. Discover more in our analysis for 8 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) prices are on the rise due to escalating risks in the Middle East
• The focus today is on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes
• XAUUSD forecast for 8 July 2026: 4,029 or 4,205

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 4,124 USD per ounce on Wednesday after falling by more than 1% a day earlier. Pressure on the market intensified following new US air strikes on Iranian facilities in response to recent attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation of the conflict has put the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran at risk, pushing oil prices higher again and increasing inflation concerns. An additional factor was the US decision to revoke the permit that had allowed Iran to export oil to the global market. At the same time, the deterioration in the regional situation forced shipowners and oil producers to use the Strait of Hormuz with caution, increasing the risk of disruptions to global energy supplies.

Investors remain focused on the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting, which may provide fresh guidance on the future path of interest rates.

Earlier, gold (XAUUSD) received support after weak US labour market data reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike. However, the new wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has once again reminded the market of uncertainty and limited the precious metal’s further upside potential.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after failing to consolidate above the 4,205 resistance level, gold (XAUUSD) came under selling pressure again. Quotes have pulled back to the 4,100–4,125 area and are now trading near the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a weakening of the previous upward momentum and the market's transition to a wait-and-see phase for new fundamental drivers.

The technical picture remains neutral with a moderately negative bias. The nearest support level is located in the 4,095–4,100 zone, while stronger support lies around 4,029, where buyers were previously more active. The resistance level remains at 4,205. As long as gold stays below this mark, the risks of a continued corrective decline remain elevated. However, a confident return above 4,205 will reopen the way for an upward movement.

The indicators are signalling a loss of upward momentum. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram continues to shrink, reflecting weaker buyer activity. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved down towards oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound. For now, the baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 4,029–4,205 range in anticipation of new signals from the Federal Reserve and the geopolitical agenda.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: consolidation with a moderately negative bias
• Key resistance levels: 4,205 and 4,250
• Key support levels: 4,100 and 4,029

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,205 would confirm renewed upward momentum and create conditions for continued growth towards the next resistance level.

• Take Profit: 4,250
• Stop Loss: 4,170

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,100 support level would increase selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a decline towards the key 4,029 area.

• Take Profit: 4,029
• Stop Loss: 4,135

Risk factors

The main risks to the upside scenario remain a possible strengthening of the US dollar following the release of the June Fed meeting minutes and more hawkish rhetoric from the US regulator regarding the future path of interest rates. An additional pressure factor may come from easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which would reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Summary

Gold prices are rising in response to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The XAUUSD forecast for today, 8 July 2026, suggests the consolidation range could remain between 4,029 and 4,205.

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