Gold (XAUUSD) surprises the market: the conflict heats up, but gold fails to rise

After the decline, XAUUSD quotes are forming a correction amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with prices currently at 4,068 USD per ounce. Discover more in our analysis for 9 July 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US President decided to terminate the temporary agreement on ending the conflict with Iran
• China is increasing its gold reserves for the 20th consecutive month
• Gold is undergoing a correction after the decline
• XAUUSD forecast for 9 July 2026: 4,220 or 3,970

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 9 July 2026, shows that gold is forming a correction after the decline and testing the 4,068 USD mark.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the US President’s decision to terminate the temporary agreement on ending the conflict with Iran, followed by new US military strikes on Iranian facilities in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, gold has found itself trapped in a geopolitical paradox: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which should have supported prices, is instead weighing on the metal due to inflation expectations.

The minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting, published yesterday, showed that officials remain concerned about inflation risks. Some Fed officials acknowledged the possibility of further rate hikes if price pressures persist.

Despite the short-term pressure, gold remains in demand. Central banks continue to increase reserves, with China adding to its holdings for the 20th consecutive month, while geopolitical polarisation and de-dollarisation support long-term demand for the metal.

The XAUUSD forecast for 9 July 2026 takes into account that inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy continue to pressure gold. At the same time, news from the Middle East remains the priority, and XAUUSD prices react to it first.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and may form an upward wave following the pattern signal. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within a descending channel, the upside target could be the 4,220 USD resistance level.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD also suggests another market scenario, in which prices could decline to 3,970 USD without testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 4,138 and 4,220
• Key support levels: 3,970 and 3,890

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 4,138 would confirm a renewed upward movement and create conditions for continued growth towards the next resistance level.

• Take Profit: 4,220
• Stop Loss: 4,110

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 3,970 support level would increase selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a decline towards 3,890.

• Take Profit: 3,890
• Stop Loss: 4,005

Risk factors

The main risks to the upside scenario remain a possible strengthening of the US dollar following the release of the minutes of the June Fed meeting and a more hawkish tone from the US regulator regarding further interest rate decisions. An additional pressure factor could be easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which would reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Summary

Rising tensions in the Middle East and inflation risks continue to pressure gold. At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XAUUSD suggests growth towards 4,220 USD.

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