Gold (XAUUSD) hopes to extend its rally: what can support it

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 4,320 USD. The gold market benefitted from US data and oil price movements. Discover more in our analysis for 10 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold (XAUUSD) quotes rose and then paused as the external backdrop added uncertainty
• Technical signals remain in favour of buyers
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 August 2026: 4,371

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) starts Monday above 4,320 USD per ounce, a two-month high. The metal was supported by lower energy prices and signs of cooling in the US labour market, which reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

The US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July, while wage growth and the labour force participation rate also declined. These figures significantly weakened the argument that a strong labour market continues to support inflationary pressure.

An additional factor was the decline in oil prices despite uncertainty surrounding a possible agreement between Iran and the US to restore supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Demand from Chinese institutional investors also props up the metal. They are increasing long positions in gold-backed instruments. Interest in the metal is additionally supported by stronger physical demand and central bank purchases.

The gold (XAUUSD) forecast is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD maintains a strong uptrend after an impulsive breakout from the 4,050–4,100 range. Prices are trading near 4,341 and remain well above the middle Bollinger Band, close to the indicator’s upper boundary. After reaching new local highs, the market moved into a minor consolidation, but the structure remains bullish.

The nearest key resistance level is located at 4,371. Consolidation above this mark would confirm continued growth and open the way for new highs. The first support is the 4,310–4,320 zone, followed by the 4,259–4,221 area. As long as gold remains above 4,221, buyers retain the advantage.

MACD is deep in positive territory and confirms strong upward momentum, although the pace of its strengthening is beginning to slow. The Stochastic Oscillator is holding near 80 and forming a downward reversal from overbought territory, so a pause or local correction is possible near 4,371. The baseline scenario remains positive within the 4,221–4,371 range.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,371 and 4,406
• Key support levels: 4,310–4,320 and 4,259–4,221

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,371 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum in XAUUSD and open the way towards the next target.

• Take Profit: 4,406
• Stop Loss: 4,335

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,310–4,320 support zone would indicate a correction after the strong rally and create conditions for a decline towards the next support area.

• Take Profit: 4,259
• Stop Loss: 4,350

Risk factors

Risks to the XAUUSD upside scenario are primarily linked to overbought conditions following strong momentum and possible profit-taking near the 4,371 resistance level. Additional pressure on gold could come from a recovery in the US dollar and renewed expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. At the same time, a weak US labour market, lower yields, and institutional demand continue to support buyers.

Summary

Gold prices retain the potential for another upward move. Today’s XAUUSD forecast for 10 August 2026 does not rule out a rise towards 4,371.

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