CPI to determine gold’s direction: XAUUSD poised for a sharp move

Gold is forming another corrective wave after its rise and is testing the 4,380 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 11 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The main trigger this week: the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• US-Iran negotiations to resolve the conflict have reached an impasse
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 August 2026: 4,500

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 11 August 2026, shows that gold is forming another corrective wave after its rise and is testing the 4,380 USD level.

Gold is rising for the third consecutive session and has reached its highest level in more than two months. The main trigger this week is the expected release of the July US inflation report (CPI), which could change expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The market is awaiting consumer inflation data: a low reading would increase the likelihood of monetary easing and be positive for gold, while unexpectedly high inflation could put pressure back on XAUUSD amid expectations of higher interest rates.

US-Iran talks have stalled, while uncertainty remains over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude continues to rise, again creating risks for global inflation.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 August takes into account that the main support comes from expectations of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, while rising energy prices add geopolitical and inflationary uncertainty. Today’s key event is the release of US CPI data, which could significantly alter expectations for interest rates and future demand for gold.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD quotes formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As this pattern plays out, prices may form a corrective wave. Since XAUUSD remains within an ascending channel, the target for the pullback could be the 4,358 USD support level.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, in which prices rise towards 4,500 USD without testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,429 and 4,500
• Key support levels: 4,316 and 4,235

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 4,429 resistance level would confirm the continuation of the XAUUSD uptrend and open the way towards the next target.

• Take Profit: 4,500
• Stop Loss: 4,400

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 4,316 support level would indicate a continued correction after the rally and create conditions for a decline towards the next support level.

• Take Profit: 4,235
• Stop Loss: 4,340

Risk factors

The main risk to the XAUUSD bullish scenario is a stronger dollar and tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy. At the same time, a weak US labour market, lower yields, and institutional demand continue to bolster gold.

Summary

Gold is forming a corrective wave ahead of the US CPI release. Today’s XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 4,358 USD before growth.

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