XAUUSD consolidates ahead of US macroeconomic triggers

XAUUSD quotes are retreating from their highs as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key US inflation data. Prices currently stand at 4,642 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 25 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Gold's upward momentum has paused ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech
• Markets have reduced the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September to 58.1%
• Gold posted a strong rally in August, gaining more than 16% since the start of the month
• XAUUSD forecast for 25 August 2026: 4,755

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are correcting after rising for two consecutive trading sessions. Despite the local pullback, prices remain close to three-month highs.

Gold's upward momentum has temporarily stalled ahead of the release of the key US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. Investors are looking for clear signals on whether the new head of the regulator is prepared to tighten policy further to combat inflation.

Traders remain cautious after the recent strong US service sector report, with the services PMI jumping to 56.8 points. Against this backdrop, the FedWatch tool revised market expectations: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September fell to 58.1%, while the chances of a rate hike rose to 41.9%.

Overall, the main driver of gold's sharp rally in August – with the asset gaining more than 16% since the start of the month – remains the US Treasury's program to buy back long-term Treasury bonds, which continues to support the safe-haven metal.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD is rebounding from the support level and remains within a bullish channel despite the ongoing local correction. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests further growth towards the 4,755 USD target.

Technical indicators confirm continued bullish sentiment. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached oversold territory and is rebounding from an ascending support line, indicating increased buying activity. A consolidation above the local resistance level at 4,715 USD would provide an additional signal in favour of further growth. In this case, bullish momentum would strengthen, potentially accelerating XAUUSD’s move towards the next resistance level.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidate below 4,610 USD. This signal would indicate increasing selling pressure and invalidate the current bullish scenario.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: M15 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,720 and 4,745
• Key support levels: 4,615 and 4,530

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the local resistance level and consolidation above 4,665 USD would indicate that the current correction is ending and buying pressure is increasing.

• Current price: 4,642
• Entry point: 4,665
• Take profit: 4,755
• Stop loss: 4,615
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:1.8

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and consolidation below 4,615 USD would indicate increasing bearish pressure and a continuation of the downward move.

• Entry point: 4,610
• Take profit: 4,525
• Stop loss: 4,635
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:3.4

The trade idea is valid until 12:00 AM on 26 August 2026.

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish scenario is an unexpectedly high US inflation reading, which could prompt the Fed to act more aggressively, as well as a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, with prices falling below 4,610 USD.

Summary

The current decline in XAUUSD represents a temporary pause caused by buyers' caution ahead of inflation-related triggers and the Fed chairman's speech. At the same time, the overall trend remains upward, as the US Treasury's program to buy back long-term bonds continues to provide fundamental support for prices near their highs.

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