XAUUSD recovers ahead of signals from Jackson Hole

XAUUSD quotes are attempting to recover after the recent decline, holding local support while awaiting signals from the new US Federal Reserve chairman. Prices currently stand at 4,607 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 27 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Published data for July showed annual US inflation remaining at a high level
• Investors are focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh
• The market expects clear guidance from the Fed on long-term monetary policy
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 August 2026: 4,785

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are attempting to rise after yesterday’s decline. Buyers are successfully defending the 4,585 USD support level from a breakout, while 4,700 USD remains a significant resistance level. Gold may need to consolidate before developing a new bullish momentum. Despite the current correction, today’s XAUUSD forecast remains bullish.

Traders are now focused on upcoming comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. The market is awaiting his speech for greater clarity on the regulator’s long-term plans. Unless the new Fed chair provides specific forward guidance on monetary policy, the market’s assessment of the future interest rate path will likely remain unchanged.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently estimate the likelihood of a US rate hike at the September meeting at 36.1%. Macroeconomic data released on Wednesday showed that annual US inflation remained stable in July, significantly above the Fed’s 2% target.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD prices are declining within a short-term descending channel, but despite the ongoing correction, bullish pressure remains. Today’s XAUUSD forecast suggests an attempt to resume growth towards 4,785 USD.

Technical indicators confirm continued bullish sentiment. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached oversold territory and is turning upwards after the signal lines crossed, indicating increased buyer activity. An additional signal in favour of further growth would be consolidation above the local 4,655 USD resistance level, which would indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the correction channel and strengthen bullish momentum.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidate below 4,565 USD. This would signal increased selling pressure and raise the likelihood of a deeper bearish correction.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H1 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,655 and 4,685
• Key support levels: 4,565 and 4,525

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending correction channel, with XAUUSD quotes consolidating above 4,655 USD, would indicate the end of the current correction and increase bullish pressure.

• Current price: 4,607
• Entry level: 4,655
• Take profit: 4,765
• Stop loss: 4,610
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

If bullish pressure weakens and the correction continues, a breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with prices consolidating below 4,565 USD, would signal increased downside pressure and a continued decline.

• Entry level: 4,565
• Take profit: 4,475
• Stop loss: 4,605
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until midnight on 28 August 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish XAUUSD scenario is hawkish rhetoric from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, which, against the backdrop of high inflation, could trigger stronger expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Summary

Holding the 4,585 USD support level maintains the short-term bullish potential for XAUUSD; however, gold needs a strong driver to break confidently above the 4,655 USD resistance level. The key catalyst for further price movement will be Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

EURUSD has recovered from the July lows and is trading near 1.1545 — back in bullish territory. The pair has reclaimed EMA65 on the daily, formed a bullish EMA crossover on H4, and the US-eurozone GDP gap has narrowed sharply (US 1.5% vs eurozone 1.0%). Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both now target 1.2500 by year-end. A confirmed close above 1.1700 opens the path to 1.1805. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios, and what the unprecedented 9-3 FOMC dissent vote means for EURUSD.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Gold has reversed its downtrend and is trading near 4,360 USD, back above both EMA65 and EMA200. ETF flows turned positive in July with 3 billion USD of net inflows, and central banks bought 288.9 tonnes in Q2 — up 62% year-on-year. A breakout above 4,500 USD opens the path to 4,855 USD and the 5,597 USD all-time high. We break down the key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers, and what J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs are forecasting for gold in 2026.