XAUUSD faces a key signal: dovish Fed rhetoric or another blow to gold

Gold continues to correct in anticipation of signals from the Federal Reserve, with prices currently at 4,575 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 28 August 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The core PCE for July rose to 3.7%
• The market estimates the likelihood of a rate hike in September at around 34%
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 August 2026: 4,720 and 4,550

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 28 August 2026, shows that gold continues its corrective wave after reaching its highest levels in more than three months and is testing 4,575 USD.

Today, markets are awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole. Following recent signals from Fed officials about persistent inflation risks, investors are concerned about a more hawkish tone. This could increase the appeal of the US dollar and yield-bearing assets relative to gold.

The core PCE rose to 3.7% in July, while the Federal Reserve’s target is 2.00%. The market estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at around 34%, while the likelihood of a hike by December is already significantly higher. This backdrop limits gold’s potential, as the metal does not generate interest income.

Demand for gold from ETFs and the official sector remains one of the factors helping to offset interest rate pressure. In August, gold received support after the US Treasury bought back long-term bonds, easing tensions in the debt market.

The situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence inflation expectations and demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the agreement between Iran and Oman has already pushed oil prices lower, slightly reducing the geopolitical premium in gold.

Gold is bolstered by ETF demand, official-sector purchases, and geopolitical uncertainty, but persistent US inflation and the high likelihood that the Fed will maintain tight policy limit upside potential. Today’s key driver is Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole: a dovish tone could restore support for gold, while an emphasis on inflation and interest rates could add to pressure on the metal.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. As the pattern signal develops, prices could form an upward wave. Since XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the upside target is the 4,720 USD resistance level.

At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, in which prices could correct towards 4,550 USD and continue their upward momentum after testing the support level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 4,620 and 4,720
• Key support levels: 4,550 and 4,450

XAUUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, with XAUUSD prices consolidating above 4,620 USD, would indicate the end of the current correction and increase bullish pressure.

• Current price: 4,575
• Entry level: 4,620
• Take profit: 4,720
• Stop loss: 4,595
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:4

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

If bullish pressure weakens and the correction continues, a breakout and consolidation below the 4,550 USD support level would indicate a continued correction.

• Entry level: 4,550
• Take profit: 4,450
• Stop loss: 4,570
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:5

The trade idea is valid until midnight on 29 August 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish XAUUSD scenario remains hawkish rhetoric from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, which, amid high inflation, could fuel expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Summary

Gold continues to correct ahead of the Federal Reserve Chairman’s speech. Technical analysis suggests XAUUSD prices could rise towards the 4,720 USD resistance level once the correction is complete.

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