XAUUSD poised to resume downward momentum

XAUUSD quotes are strengthening for the second consecutive trading session after rebounding from the 4,345 USD support level amid a weaker US dollar. Prices currently stand at 4,423 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Key factors supporting gold are a weaker US dollar and sustained systemic demand from global central banks
• The key trigger today is the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI)
• XAUUSD forecast for 10 September 2026: 4,335

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are rising for the second consecutive trading session. Buyers have found support at 4,345 USD, while a local resistance level is located at 4,445 USD. Gold is bolstered by a weaker US dollar and sustained demand from central banks. In particular, according to the WSJ, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by around 20 tonnes in August.

Today, markets are awaiting the release of US PPI data for August, which could influence expectations regarding further Federal Reserve policy ahead of the 15–16 September meeting. Higher inflation could add to pressure on gold by fuelling expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while weaker data could support XAUUSD.

An even more significant event will be the release of US Consumer Price Index data on Friday. The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting at 60.3%, so inflation figures could significantly impact the dollar and gold.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes are rising but have approached a local resistance level, which may limit the further upward correction. Buyers have consolidated above the EMA-65, indicating increased short-term bullish pressure. However, the XAUUSD forecast for today suggests an attempt to resume the downward move towards 4,335 USD.

Technical indicators remain predominantly bearish. The Stochastic Oscillator is forming a bearish crossover, indicating waning upward momentum and increasing selling pressure. A consolidation below 4,390 USD would provide an additional signal in favour of further declines. This scenario would confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel and create conditions for further strengthening of bearish momentum.

An alternative scenario would become relevant if prices break above a local resistance level and consolidate above 4,460 USD. In this case, the upward move could continue, opening the way for buyers towards the next resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,445 and 4,460
• Key support levels: 4,390 and 4,345

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Limit)

A rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation below 4,390 USD, would indicate increased bearish pressure and downward momentum.

• Current price: 4,423
• Entry level: 4,440
• Take profit: 4,335
• Stop loss: 4,465
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:4

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 11 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish scenario is weaker-than-expected US PPI and CPI inflation data, which would indicate a sustained slowdown in price growth. In this case, markets would quickly reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, bringing buyers back into the market.

Summary

The current XAUUSD recovery is driven by a weaker US dollar and reports of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China. Nevertheless, the medium-term performance of the precious metal will be determined by the market's reaction to upcoming PPI and CPI inflation reports.

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