XAUUSD trades in a downtrend after a correction

XAUUSD quotes have resumed their decline, and if US inflation starts to ease, prices could fall below 4,000. The current quote is 4,346 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 11 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US PPI rose by 0.4% m/m in August, fully matching the forecast
• According to a Reuters poll from 9 September, 70% of economists expect the interest rate to remain unchanged
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 September 2026: 4,223

Fundamental analysis

The short-term fundamental backdrop for gold has deteriorated. The latest US labour market report was significantly stronger than expected, with Nonfarm Payrolls up by 162 thousand in August, above a forecast of 56 thousand, while the July figure was revised from a decline of 23 thousand to an increase of 21 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while the labour force participation rate rose to 61.6%.

PPI data added further pressure on gold. In August, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.4% month-on-month, fully matching the forecast, while the previous reading was revised upwards to 0.1%. On an annual basis, the PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8% a month earlier, with particularly notable increases seen in energy prices, transport services, airfares, and medical services.

This combination of factors is negative for XAUUSD. A strong labour market allows the Federal Reserve to focus on fighting inflation, while accelerating producer prices increase the risk of interest rates remaining high for longer.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD quotes continue to fall. On the D1 chart, the support level has formed at 4,321.00, while resistance lies at 4,640. Prices are testing the support level, which is highly likely to be broken. The downside target could be 4,223.00. Since a Head and Shoulders pattern has formed on D1, the decline may prove deeper, with XAUUSD falling below 4,000 per ounce.

An alternative scenario would come into play if prices break above a local resistance level and consolidate above 4,380 USD. In this case, an upward correction could lead to a rise towards 4,640.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,640
• Key support levels: 4,321

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, with XAUUSD prices consolidating below 4,321 USD, would indicate increased bearish pressure and downward momentum.

• Current price: 4,346
• Entry level: 4,315
• Stop loss: 4,351
• Take profit: 4,223
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2.5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 14 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risks to the XAUUSD forecast are linked to a further reassessment of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, inflation trends, and the state of the US labour market. Higher-than-expected CPI or PCE figures could reinforce expectations of a continued hawkish policy stance, support the US dollar and bond yields, and put pressure on gold, while weaker macroeconomic data could trigger the opposite reaction. Geopolitical tensions remain an additional factor that could sharply increase demand for safe-haven assets.

Summary

At present, the baseline scenario for XAUUSD remains moderately bearish. The strong employment report and accelerating PPI support expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, weighing on gold through rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar. The next key driver for XAUUSD will be the release of US CPI data. If consumer inflation also comes in high, expectations of a Fed rate hike may strengthen, putting further pressure on gold.

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