Gold (XAUUSD) plunges 4% as market tests the 4,110 USD level

Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain just above 4,100 after falling by around 4% in the previous session, with virtually every factor currently weighing on the precious metal. Prices currently stand at 4,137 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 29 September 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is supporting oil prices and increasing inflation risks
• The market estimates the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 70%
• Treasury yields are also reaching new multi-year highs
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 September 2026: 4,110 and 4,050

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around 4,100 after falling by approximately 4% in the previous session. Pressure on XAUUSD persists due to high oil prices and the associated inflation risks, which are fuelling expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening.

Oil prices have resumed their rise following reports that Iranian representatives doubt an agreement with the US can be reached before the November midterm elections. President Donald Trump’s rejection of Tehran's latest proposal added further uncertainty.

Meanwhile, US government bond yields climbed to new multi-year highs. Rising yields amid inflation concerns and expectations of further rate hikes increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate interest income.

The market currently estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at around 70%, following the first increase in three years earlier in September. The next key indicators to watch will be the PCE data on Wednesday and the US labour market report on Friday. Strong figures would reinforce expectations of policy tightening and keep XAUUSD under pressure.

The gold (XAUUSD) outlook is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD remains in a pronounced downtrend. After breaking below the 4,260.00 level, prices accelerated sharply lower and tested the key support level at 4,110.01. Quotes are trading well below the middle Bollinger Band and near the range’s lower boundary, confirming that sellers remain in control.

MACD is deep below the zero line, while the indicator line remains below the signal line, indicating strong bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, increasing the probability of a short-term technical rebound, although it does not yet provide a clear reversal signal.

The key level remains 4,110. Consolidation below this mark would confirm that the sell-off is continuing and open the way towards 4,050.00. To weaken the bearish scenario, prices would first need to return above 4,180.40. A stronger recovery would only become possible if quotes consolidate above 4,220.20.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,180.40 and 4,220.20
• Key support levels: 4,110 and 4,050

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the key 4,110 support level would confirm continued strong bearish momentum and create conditions for a further decline.

• Current price: 4,137.36
• Entry level: 4,105.00
• Take profit: 4,045.00
• Stop loss: 4,135.00
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 30 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAUUSD scenario remains the asset’s deeply oversold technical condition following the sharp decline in the previous session. Weak PCE or NFP data would reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, push yields lower, and support gold. A renewed escalation between the US and Iran could provide an additional upside factor. A return above 4,180.40 would weaken the current bearish scenario.

Summary

XAUUSD remains under strong pressure after the sharp decline and is testing key support. Today's XAUUSD forecast for 29 September 2026 does not rule out a decline towards 4,110 and then 4,050.

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