Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: downside risks remain

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 29 June–3 July near 4,000 USD per ounce, under pressure from a strong dollar and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Despite progress in talks between the US and Iran, lower geopolitical risks have not yet provided significant support for the gold market.

The baseline scenario for the week remains moderately negative. XAUUSD maintains its downward momentum and is testing the 3,957 support level, while the nearest resistance lies in the 4,250–4,415 zone. While prices hold below this area, the risks of further decline remain.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) closed the week near 4,000 USD per troy ounce, its lowest level in almost eight months. The strongest pressure comes from the US dollar’s rise to more than one-year highs amid expectations of further Fed monetary policy tightening. Despite progress in talks between the US and Iran and lower oil prices, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has not recovered noticeably
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, gold maintains a sustained downtrend. After failing to consolidate above 4,250, quotes fell again towards the key support level at 3,957. Prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirms that sellers retain control. The nearest resistance lies in the 4,250–4,415 zone, where the main supply area is located. A breakout below the 3,957 support level will increase the risk of a new downward wave
• Fundamentals and forecast: after the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the rate remained unchanged, but the regulator reiterated its readiness to continue the rate-hiking cycle if needed. The market maintains high expectations of a September rate hike, with the possibility of another move by the end of the year. A strong dollar and expectations of a prolonged period of tight policy continue to limit gold’s appeal. Although the Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversold conditions and suggests a short-term technical rebound, MACD remains deep in negative territory, confirming the prevailing bearish momentum. The baseline scenario remains a test of the 3,957 level, with a risk of continued decline if it breaks

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) closed the week near 4,000 USD per troy ounce, close to the lowest levels in almost eight months. The main pressure factor remains the strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

After the Fed’s June meeting, the regulator held the rate steady but signalled its readiness to continue the rate-hiking cycle. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is generally committed to fighting inflation. The market is already pricing in a high probability of a September rate hike, with the possibility of another move before the end of the year.

Another factor remains the dollar’s rise to its highest level in more than a year. This makes gold less attractive to buyers who trade other currencies.

Despite progress in US-Iran talks and the decline in oil prices towards pre-conflict levels, this factor has not yet provided noticeable support for the gold market. Lower inflation risks only strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its tight policy. This continues to weigh on the precious metal.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, gold (XAUUSD) maintains a sustained downtrend. After failing to consolidate above 4,250, quotes came under strong selling pressure again and dropped to the key support level at 3,957. Prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are pointing downwards, confirming the prevailing bearish momentum.

The technical picture remains negative. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, indicating that sellers are in complete control. The nearest support level is located at 3,957. A breakout below it would signal a new downward wave and open the way to a deeper decline. The nearest resistance level lies in the 4,250–4,415 area, where an active selling zone previously formed and where the main resistance for a possible correction is now concentrated.

The indicators confirm that a downtrend is prevailing. MACD remains deep in negative territory and continues to generate bearish momentum with no signs of a reversal. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound, but for now, these signals remain purely corrective. The baseline scenario remains a test of the 3,957 support level, with the risk of continued decline if it breaks.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains negative, with the main pressure coming from the strengthening US dollar amid expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following its June meeting, the regulator left the rate unchanged but confirmed its readiness to continue the rate-hiking cycle if necessary. The market continues to price in a high probability of a September rate hike. Easing inflation expectations after progress in US-Iran talks and the pullback in oil prices added another pressure factor.

Technically, gold maintains a sustained downtrend. After failing to consolidate above 4,250, quotes fell again towards the key support level at 3,957. Prices hold below the middle Bollinger Band, while MACD remains in negative territory, confirming sellers’ advantage. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical rebound, but this does not yet change the overall picture.

• Buy scenario

Consolidation above 4,250–4,415 would increase the chances of a corrective recovery.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below the 3,957 support level would confirm continued downward momentum and open the way to a deeper decline.

Conclusion: gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure from a strong dollar and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. As long as prices hold below the 4,250–4,415 resistance zone, sellers retain the advantage.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) closed the week near 4,000 USD per ounce, at its lowest level in nearly eight months. A strong dollar and expectations of further Fed policy tightening continue to pressure the market, despite progress in talks between the US and Iran.

Technically, gold remains in a downtrend, with prices testing the 3,957 support level. A breakout below this mark will increase the risk of further decline, while the nearest resistance level lies in the 4,250–4,415 zone.

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