Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: buyers still hold the upper hand

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 17–21 August near 4,350 USD per ounce after a sharp decline amid profit-taking. Soft US inflation data supports gold: the July CPI and PPI figures showed no renewed acceleration in prices, while the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 35% from 55% a week earlier. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain an additional supportive factor.

The baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive. Gold is recovering after breaking out of the July consolidation and is trading within the 4,207–4,451 range. A consolidation above 4,451 would confirm continued upward movement and open the door to new momentum. A breakout below the 4,207 support level would increase the risk of a correction towards 4,065 and then 3,945. As long as prices remain above 4,207, buyers retain the short-term advantage.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) enters the new week near 4,350 USD per ounce after falling sharply in the previous session. Some investors took profits after the recent rally, although softer US inflation data continues to support the metal. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September has fallen to around 35%, down from 55% a week earlier
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, gold continues to recover after breaking out of the July consolidation, although the advance has stalled around 4,451. The nearest support lies in the 4,280–4,207 zone, followed by 4,065, with the key long-term support level remaining at 3,945. A consolidation above 4,451 would confirm continued upward movement and create conditions for new momentum
• Fundamentals and outlook: Federal Reserve signals and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remain in focus. Moderate inflation trends reduce pressure from interest rates and yields, while geopolitical risks support demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, profit-taking and a possible renewed rise in oil prices limit the rally’s potential. MACD remains in positive territory, but bullish momentum is weakening, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned down after leaving overbought territory. The baseline scenario for the week remains movement within the 4,207–4,451 range with a moderately positive bias

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 17–21 August near 4,350 USD per ounce after a sharp decline in the previous session. Some investors took profits after the recent rally. At the same time, markets are assessing the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and the situation in the Middle East.

The inflation backdrop in the US remains relatively calm. July producer prices rose less than expected, and the previously published CPI also showed no further acceleration in inflation. This has reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve, with the market currently estimating the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at around 35%, down from 55% a week earlier.

Softer rate expectations continue to bolster gold, as they reduce pressure from yields and the dollar. However, after the strong rally, the risk of further profit-taking remains, especially if new Federal Reserve signals turn out to be more hawkish than expected.

Geopolitics remains the second key driver. Talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, so the risk of a renewed escalation and a jump in oil prices persists. The baseline backdrop for gold remains moderately positive, with soft inflation data supporting the metal, while profit-taking and a possible rise in energy inflation limit the potential for a further rally.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD quotes continue to recover after breaking out of the July consolidation, but the rally stalled around 4,450. Prices corrected towards 4,324 and remain above the middle Bollinger Band, so the short-term structure retains a moderately positive bias despite profit-taking.

The key resistance level is located at 4,451. A consolidation above this mark would confirm continued upward movement and open the way for fresh momentum. The nearest support is the 4,280–4,207 area, followed by 4,065, with the key long-term support remaining at 3,945.

MACD is in positive territory and confirms continued bullish momentum, although its strength is beginning to fade. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned down after being in overbought territory and points to the risk of a further correction. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 4,207–4,451 range with a moderately positive bias.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains moderately positive. Softer US inflation data has reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with the likelihood of a 25-basis-point move falling to around 35%, down from 55% a week earlier. This reduces pressure from yields and the dollar. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz also bolster gold, although the risk of another rise in oil prices keeps the inflation threat in place.

Technically, gold continues to recover after breaking out of the July consolidation, although the advance has stalled around 4,451. Prices corrected towards 4,324 but remained above the middle Bollinger Band. MACD is holding in positive territory, but bullish momentum is beginning to weaken. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned down after leaving overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a further local correction.

• Buy scenario

A consolidation above the 4,451 resistance level would confirm renewed bullish momentum and create conditions for further gains. As long as prices remain above the 4,207–4,280 zone, buyers retain the short-term advantage.

• Sell scenario

A breakout below the 4,207 support level would indicate a deeper correction and open the way towards 4,065. A stronger decline would bring the key long-term support level at 3,945 back into focus.

Conclusion: gold (XAUUSD) retains a moderately positive bias and is trading within the 4,207–4,451 range. For the rally to continue, buyers need to gain a foothold above 4,451, although profit-taking and the Stochastic reversal increase the risk of a further correction. The main drivers this week will remain Federal Reserve signals and developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the new week near 4,350 USD per troy ounce after a sharp decline amid profit-taking. The fundamental backdrop remains supportive: the July CPI and PPI figures in the US showed no renewed acceleration in inflation, while the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 35% from 55% a week earlier. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain an additional positive factor, although a possible rise in oil prices could further increase inflation risks.

Technically, gold continues to recover after breaking out of the July consolidation, although the advance stalled around 4,451. Prices remain above the middle Bollinger Band; MACD is holding in positive territory, but bullish momentum is weakening, and the Stochastic Oscillator has turned down after leaving overbought territory. The key resistance level is located at 4,451, and a breakout above it would confirm continued growth. The nearest support lies in the 4,280–4,207 zone, followed by 4,065 and 3,945. As long as gold prices hold above 4,207, the baseline scenario remains movement within the 4,207–4,451 range with a moderately positive bias.

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