Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: buyers have plenty of support

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 24–28 August above 4,500 USD per ounce after a third consecutive week of gains. The metal is supported by a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields following the US Treasury’s decision to expand its long-term bond buyback program, as well as high volatility in the currency and bond markets. Additional factors include high oil prices, new sanctions against Iran, sustained investment demand, and gold purchases by central banks, particularly China.

The baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive. Gold retains its bullish structure and is testing the 4,551.60 resistance level. A consolidation above this mark would confirm continued growth and open the way towards 4,656.05 and then 4,776.50. The nearest significant support level is located at 4,411.50, followed by 4,291.05 and 4,166.95. As long as prices remain above 4,411.50, buyers hold the upper hand, although strong overbought conditions increase the risk of a local correction.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 24–28 August above 4,500 USD per ounce after a third consecutive week of gains. The metal received additional momentum after the US Treasury decided to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks: US Treasury yields and the dollar fell sharply, while XAUUSD gained more than 4% in a single session. Even a subsequent recovery in yields failed to completely reverse the move
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, gold continues its confident recovery from the July lows, trading around 4,542. The key resistance level is located at 4,551.60; a breakout above this mark would open the way towards 4,656.05 and then 4,776.50. The nearest significant support is located at 4,411.50, followed by 4,291.05 and 4,166.95. As long as prices remain above 4,411.50, the bullish structure remains intact
• Fundamentals and outlook: gold is bolstered by high oil prices, preparations for new US sanctions against Iran, sustained investment demand, and central bank purchases, particularly from China. The main risk remains a renewed rise in yields and the dollar amid more hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve. MACD remains firmly in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 90 indicates strong overbought conditions and the risk of a local correction. The baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive: a consolidation above 4,551.60 would create conditions for a rise towards 4,656.05, while a breakout below 4,411.50 would noticeably worsen the technical picture

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 24–28 August above 4,500 USD per ounce after a third consecutive week of gains. Demand for the safe-haven metal increased amid high volatility in the currency and bond markets.

Gold received an additional boost after the US Treasury decided to at least double the volume of long-term bond buybacks: US Treasury yields and the dollar plummeted, while XAUUSD rose more than 4% in a single session. Even the subsequent recovery in yields failed to fully reverse the move, as investors doubt that the authorities’ actions will curb borrowing costs for long.

Several factors continue to support gold this week, including high oil prices and the associated inflation risk, preparations for new US sanctions against Iran, sustained investment demand, and continued purchases by central banks, particularly China. The main risk remains a renewed rise in yields and the dollar if the market begins to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy again. The baseline outlook for gold this week remains moderately positive.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD quotes continue their confident recovery from the July lows. Prices have risen to 4,542 and are testing the key resistance level at 4,551.60, while approaching the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator’s middle line is pointing upwards, so the underlying structure remains bullish, although the risk of a local pause or pullback has increased after the strong momentum.

A breakout above 4,551.60 would confirm continued growth and open the way towards 4,656.05 and then 4,776.50. The nearest significant support level is located at 4,411.50, followed by 4,291.05 and 4,166.95. MACD remains firmly in positive territory and confirms bullish momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator above 90 points to strong overbought conditions. As long as prices hold above 4,411.50, the baseline scenario remains positive.

The trading idea suggests buying after a consolidation above 4,551.60, with a buy stop at 4,552, take profit at 4,656, and stop loss at 4,495. The profit potential is around 104 pips with a risk of 57 pips, giving a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.8. The idea remains valid until 28 August 2026, provided XAUUSD does not return sustainably below 4,411.50.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains moderately positive. Gold enters the week above 4,500 USD per ounce after a third consecutive week of gains. The metal gained additional momentum after the US Treasury decided to increase the volume of long-term bond buybacks: US Treasury yields and the dollar fell sharply, while XAUUSD was up more than 4% in a single session.

Technically, gold continues its confident recovery from the July lows and is trading around 4,542, close to the key resistance level at 4,551.60. Prices are hovering near the upper Bollinger Band, and MACD remains firmly in positive territory. However, the Stochastic Oscillator has risen above 90, indicating strong overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a local correction. The nearest significant support is located at 4,411.50, followed by 4,291.05 and 4,166.95.

• Buy scenario

A consolidation above the 4,551.60 resistance level would confirm continued bullish momentum and open the way towards 4,656.05. The baseline trading idea suggests a buy stop at 4,552, take profit at 4,656, and stop loss at 4,495. The risk-to-reward ratio is approximately 1:1.8.

• Sell scenario

A return below the 4,411.50 support level would indicate a deeper correction and open the way towards 4,291.05. A stronger decline would bring the 4,166.95 area back into focus.

Conclusion: buyers hold the upper hand in gold (XAUUSD), although strong overbought conditions increase the risk of a correction after the sharp rise. For the rally to continue, prices need to consolidate above 4,551.60, while a loss of the 4,411.50 level would significantly worsen the technical picture. The main drivers this week will remain US Treasury yield dynamics, the dollar, oil prices, and developments around Iran. The trading idea remains valid until 28 August 2026.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 24–28 August above 4,500 USD per troy ounce after a third consecutive week of gains, driven by high volatility in the currency and bond markets, a weaker dollar following the US Treasury’s expansion of its long-term bond buyback program, high oil prices, and new sanctions against Iran.

Technically, gold retains a pronounced bullish structure and is trading around 4,542, close to the key resistance level at 4,551.60. Prices are near the upper Bollinger Band, while MACD remains in positive territory and confirms bullish momentum. However, the Stochastic Oscillator above 90 signals strong overbought conditions and the risk of a local correction. A breakout above 4,551.60 would open the way towards 4,656.05 and then 4,776.50. The nearest significant support level is located at 4,411.50, followed by 4,291.05 and 4,166.95. As long as gold remains above 4,411.50, the baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive.

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