Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: outlook remains positive

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 31 August–4 September near 4,600 USD per ounce following a largely neutral close to the previous week. US debt risks and the debasement trade amid the Treasury’s expansion of its bond buyback program continue to support the metal, with geopolitics remaining an additional factor.

The baseline scenario for the week is moderately positive. Gold retains a broad bullish structure, although it has entered a correction phase after a strong August rally and is trading near 4,587. A consolidation above the 4,699.66 resistance level would confirm renewed growth and open the way towards 4,763 and then 4,867. The nearest support level is located at 4,555, followed by 4,451 and 4,344. As long as prices remain above 4,555, buyers have the upper hand, although the Stochastic Oscillator turning lower increases the risk of a continued local correction.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 31 August–4 September near 4,600 USD per ounce after an almost flat close to the previous week. The market estimates the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September at around 65%, although higher inflation has fuelled expectations of a rate hike before the end of the year. The debasement trade continues to provide additional support for gold amid the US Treasury’s expansion of its bond buyback program and concerns over the country’s debt sustainability
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, gold retains a broad bullish structure following a strong August rally, although it has moved into a correction in recent sessions and is trading near 4,587. The key resistance level is located at 4,699.66; a breakout above it would open the way towards 4,763 and then 4,867. The nearest support level is located at 4,555, followed by 4,451 and 4,344. As long as prices remain above 4,555, the broader bullish scenario remains intact
• Fundamentals and outlook: high interest rates and the risk of tighter Fed policy limit upside potential, while US debt risks and demand for safe-haven assets continue to support the metal. Geopolitics also remains an important factor: high oil prices keep inflation risks elevated, although diplomatic progress in the Middle East is partially reducing the risk premium. MACD remains in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower after reaching overbought territory. The baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive: a consolidation above 4,699.66 would create conditions for a rise towards 4,763. A breakout below 4,555 would increase the risk of a correction towards 4,451

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

Gold enters the week of 31 August–4 September near 4,600 USD per ounce after an almost flat close to the previous week. Fed policy remains in focus: the market estimates the likelihood of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September at around 65%, although higher inflation has strengthened expectations of a rate hike before the end of the year, with the probability of such a move by December remaining above 70%.

The debasement trade continues to provide additional support for gold: the expansion of the US Treasury’s bond buyback program has fuelled concerns over US debt sustainability and further pressure on the dollar.

This week, the fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains moderately positive but mixed. High interest rates and the risk of tighter Fed policy limit upside potential, while US debt risks and demand for safe-haven assets support the metal. Geopolitics also remains an important factor: escalation of the Russian conflict is keeping oil prices elevated, although signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East are partially reducing the risk premium. The baseline outlook for gold for the week remains moderately positive.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD retains a broad bullish structure after the strong August rally, although prices have entered a correction phase in recent sessions and are trading near 4,587. Quotes remain above the middle Bollinger Band but failed to consolidate above the 4,699.66 resistance level. Therefore, buyers retain the long-term advantage, although short-term momentum has weakened noticeably.

The nearest support level is located around 4,555, followed by 4,451 and 4,344. Key resistance remains at 4,699.66; a breakout above it would open the way towards 4,763 and then 4,867. MACD is in positive territory, confirming that the bullish structure remains intact, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower from overbought territory and dropped towards the middle of its range, increasing the likelihood of a continued local correction.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop for gold (XAUUSD) remains moderately positive, although more mixed than a week earlier. Gold enters the week of 31 August–4 September near 4,600 USD per ounce after closing the previous week virtually flat. The market estimates the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September at around 65%, although higher inflation has strengthened expectations of a rate hike before the end of the year. The debasement trade continues to provide additional support for the metal amid the US Treasury’s expansion of its bond buyback program and concerns over the country’s debt sustainability.

Technically, gold retains a broad bullish structure after the strong August rally, although it has moved into a correction in recent sessions and is trading near 4,587. Prices hold above the middle Bollinger Band but failed to consolidate above the 4,699.66 resistance level. MACD remains in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower from overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a continued local correction. The nearest support level is located at 4,555, followed by 4,451 and 4,344.

• Buy scenario

A consolidation above the 4,699.66 resistance level would confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the way towards 4,763.

• Buy stop: 4,700
• Take profit: 4,763
• Stop loss: 4,655
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.4.

• Sell scenario

A return below the 4,555 support level would indicate a deeper correction and open the way towards 4,451. A stronger decline would bring the 4,344 area back into focus.

Conclusion: buyers still hold the upper hand in gold (XAUUSD), although momentum has weakened after the strong August rally, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates the risk of a further correction. For the rally to continue, prices need to consolidate above 4,699.66. Conversely, a breakout below 4,555 would significantly weaken the short-term technical picture. The main drivers of the week will remain expectations for Fed policy, movements in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, oil prices, and the geopolitical backdrop.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 31 August–4 September near 4,600 USD per troy ounce after an almost flat close to the previous week. US debt risks, the expansion of the Treasury’s bond buyback program, and sustained demand for safe-haven assets continue to bolster the metal.

From a technical perspective, gold retains a broad bullish structure, although it has entered a correction phase after the strong August rally and is trading near 4,587. Quotes remain above the middle Bollinger Band, MACD stays in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned lower after reaching overbought territory. A breakout above the 4,699.66 resistance level would open the way towards 4,763 and then 4,867. The nearest support level is located at 4,555, followed by 4,451 and 4,344. As long as gold prices hold above 4,555, the baseline scenario for the week remains moderately positive.

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