Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: yields pressure the 4,235 USD support

Gold enters the final days of September near 4,270 USD per ounce and is down more than 2% amid a stronger US dollar and a surge in US Treasury yields. XAUUSD has once again approached the important 4,235 support level after failing to extend its August recovery.

In the new week, the key question will be whether buyers can hold this area.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: the US government bond market will remain the key factor for gold. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries have risen to their highest levels since 2007 and 2004 respectively, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal. If yields remain elevated, pressure on XAUUSD will continue. A downward correction in yields, by contrast, could give gold room for a technical recovery from current lows.
• Current trend: on the daily chart, gold continues to form a series of lower highs after the August rise towards 4,700. The price is below the middle Bollinger Band and is once again testing the lower part of the range around 4,235–4,270. MACD has moved deeper into negative territory, confirming stronger downward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen towards oversold territory, with its fast line below the signal line. This points to continued selling pressure, although the probability of a short-term rebound is gradually increasing.
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario assumes continued bearish pressure if support at 4,235 is broken. In this case, the next target would be the 4,168 area, and if the move accelerates, around 4,040. To weaken the current bearish scenario, gold needs to hold support and return above 4,367. A more confident reversal would require a recovery above 4,425.

What moves gold next week

The fundamental backdrop remains unfavourable for gold. Strong US economic data and high oil prices have increased concerns about persistent inflation, supporting expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

Following the first rate hike in three years, the market estimates the probability of another Fed move in October at around 67%. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index has risen to a near two-month high, adding further pressure on gold, which is denominated in the US currency.

Oil eased somewhat towards the end of the week following reports of a possible phased agreement between the US and Iran, which could lead to the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and an easing of restrictions on Iranian ports. If this trend continues, some inflation risks could diminish.

For now, however, the combination of a strong dollar, high yields, and expectations of further rate hikes keeps the fundamental advantage with gold sellers.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD remains in a downward corrective structure after the August reversal from the 4,698 area. The subsequent pullback brought the price directly to horizontal support at 4,234.60, which has already held back sellers several times.

A break below 4,234.60 would open the way towards 4,168.60. Below this, the next major target remains around 4,040, where a prolonged base previously formed. The nearest resistance is around 4,367, followed by the middle Bollinger Band near 4,425. The key upper barrier remains at 4,698.

MACD is below zero and continues to decline, confirming deteriorating momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has fallen to around 18 points, with its fast line remaining below the signal line. Oversold conditions reduce the appeal of selling directly at the current price, so technically a confirmed break of support would provide a more reliable signal.

Gold trading scenario for next week

XAUUSD is trading directly above strong support at 4,235, so opening a short position before a break below this level carries the risk of a technical rebound.

Sell scenario

Consolidation below 4,235 would confirm a continuation of the downward structure and allow the market to target the next support area.

• Entry level: sell stop 4,230
• Take profit: 4,168
• Stop loss: 4,270
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.6

The trade idea is valid until 2 October 2026.

If gold holds above 4,235, the trade idea will not be activated.

Summary

Gold enters the new week under pressure from a strong US dollar and high yields, while simultaneously testing the important 4,235 support level. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for 28 September–2 October suggests further declines if this level is broken, with the nearest target at 4,168.

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