Bitcoin does not believe in peace, BTCUSD is gearing up for a surge

After falling, Bitcoin is preparing to regain ground, with the conflict in the Middle East acting as the trigger. Discover more in our analysis for 29 June 2026.

BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Bitcoin price is attempting to recover lost ground
• The US and Iran agreed to suspend mutual strikes
• BTCUSD forecast for 29 June 2026: 62,400 or 59,100

Fundamental analysis

Today, Bitcoin is stuck in limbo, hovering around the psychological 60,000 mark. Over the weekend, news emerged that could have become a catalyst for growth: the US and Iran agreed to suspend mutual strikes and plan to meet on Tuesday in Doha to discuss the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin’s reaction was short-lived and, unlike stock futures, which rose by 0.5% on this news, Bitcoin ignored the positive signal. Iran, meanwhile, has already made it clear that responsibility for the strait remains with it, while key disagreements over the memorandum remain unresolved.

The market has completely reversed its expectations for the Fed rate: instead of cuts, investors are now pricing in a rate hike this year. The new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh turned out to be far more hawkish than expected.

The geopolitical pause failed to return it above 61,000 – traders have already been burned by previous strong rallies. The fundamental backdrop remains harsh: the Fed’s hawkish monetary policy, record ETF outflows, and capital flows into AI are preventing BTC from regaining ground.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, BTCUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price may continue its corrective wave following this signal, with the target for the pullback at the 62,400 resistance level. A rebound from this level would open the door for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, the BTCUSD forecast for 29 June 2026 also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to fall and test the 59,100 support level. After breaking it, they may continue the downtrend.

BTCUSD overview

• Asset: BTCUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 62,400 and 66,500
• Key support levels: 59,100 and 58,100

Bitcoin trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 62,400 USD resistance level would confirm BTC’s strength and open the way to the next target near 66,500 USD.

• Take Profit: 66,500
• Stop Loss: 62,000

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 59,100 USD support level would increase pressure on buyers and create conditions for a decline to the 58,100 USD area.

• Take Profit: 58,100
• Stop Loss: 59,250

Risk factors

The main risk for BTCUSD remains a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East following the breakdown of negotiations between the US and Iran. An additional factor of uncertainty remains the oil market dynamics and general sentiment on global stock markets at the start of the new trading week.

Summary

The Bitcoin price remains dependent on geopolitical risks. Technical analysis of BTCUSD for today suggests a correction towards 62,400 before a decline.

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