BTCUSD corrects after reaching a new local high

BTCUSD is recovering after a correction and is poised to continue its upward trajectory, with the price currently standing at 82,915. Discover more in our analysis for 28 September 2026.

BTCUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to 5.44%, the highest level since 2004
• Institutional capital inflows in the week ending 25 September totalled around 2.39 billion USD
• BTCUSD forecast for 28 September 2026: 92,145

Fundamental analysis

The main positive factor for Bitcoin remains the substantial inflow of institutional capital through US spot ETFs. In the week ending 25 September, net inflows totalled around 2.39 billion USD, marking one of the strongest weekly results of 2026. Inflows were particularly significant on 21 and 22 September, when the funds received around 999 million USD and 715 million USD, respectively. However, buying intensity eased towards the end of the week, with inflows standing at around 347 million USD on 23 September, around 191 million USD on 24 September, and approximately 135 million USD on 25 September.

The market is also receiving additional support from improved overall demand for risk assets. At the start of the week, gains in the US technology sector and falling Treasury yields were accompanied by a rise of more than 6% in Bitcoin. This confirms BTC's continued high sensitivity to global risk appetite and the performance of US stock indices.

At the same time, US monetary policy remains the main limiting factor. On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75–4.00%, citing persistently elevated inflation. The Fed also pointed to resilient domestic demand and strong investment, reducing the need for rapid policy easing.

Technical outlook

BTCUSD is trading in an uptrend. The price has formed a resistance level at 87,435 USD, with support at 80,040 USD. The pair is completing a correction from the current resistance level and preparing to resume its upward movement. Otherwise, a sideways channel could form before the next bullish impulse. If the upward move continues, BTCUSD could reach 92,145.0.

At the same time, an alternative scenario remains possible. A breakout and consolidation below the 80,040 USD support level would signal stronger selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a continued downward correction.

BTCUSD overview

• Asset: BTCUSD
• Timeframe: D1
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance level: 87,435
• Key support level: 80,040

Bitcoin trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 87,435 USD, would strengthen bullish pressure and create conditions for opening long positions in BTCUSD.

• Current price: 82,915
• Entry level: 87,485
• Stop loss: 86,555
• Take profit: 92,145
• Risk-to-reward ratio: above 1:5

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 2 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk factors for BTCUSD remain the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, the possibility of further interest rate hikes if inflation remains persistent, rising US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar, all of which could reduce demand for risk assets. Additional pressure could emerge if capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs slow or funds move into net outflows.

Summary

The fundamental picture is currently mixed, but with a moderately positive bias. On the one hand, the market is receiving very strong support from ETFs and sustained demand for risk assets. On the other hand, high inflation, the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy, and elevated bond yields are limiting the upside potential.

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