XRP on the verge of collapse, CASP licence not enough to save it

The XRPUSD price continues to decline today despite positive news regarding the CASP licence. The current quote is 1.0847 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 8 July 2026.

XRPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The XRPUSD price continues to fall
• Ripple received a CASP licence
• XRP’s medium-term prospects still depend on whether the US adopts the Clarity Act
• XRPUSD forecast for 8 July 2026: 1.1250 or 1.0450

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XRPUSD fundamental analysis takes into account that the XRP price continues its downward wave after rising last week and testing the 1.1817 level.

This week, Ripple received a full CASP licence in Luxembourg under the European MiCA framework. This allows the company to provide regulated cryptocurrency services across all 27 countries of the European Economic Area – an important step for its institutional business. But the paradox is that the market treated this news as positive information that had already been priced in. After a surge to 1.1817 USD on licensing expectations, a wave of profit-taking followed, pushing the price back down.

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, including new US strikes on Iran, are shifting capital to safer assets, putting further pressure on altcoins, including XRP.

XRP’s medium-term outlook still depends on whether the US adopts the Clarity Act, which would provide regulatory clarity for XRP. At this stage, forecasts point to a possible delay of the Senate vote until late summer or autumn, reducing the likelihood of the law being adopted in 2026 to 50%.

The XRPUSD forecast for 8 July 2026 takes into account that XRP has found itself caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, positive structural shifts such as the MiCA licence and steady ETF inflows are strengthening the long-term fundamentals. On the other hand, the negative Middle East backdrop and technical weakness are weighing on the price in the short term. The key 1.00 level remains the sellers’ last support. A breakout below this mark could trigger a cascading sell-off and send the price down towards 0.80–0.85 USD, while a return of the XRP price above 1.15–1.18 would bring the bulls back into the game.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XRPUSD formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue their corrective wave following the signal, with the downside target at the 1.0450 support level. A breakout below this level would open the door for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s technical analysis of XRPUSD also suggests another scenario, with the price potentially forming a corrective wave and testing the 1.1250 resistance level. After rebounding from it, it may continue its downward trajectory.

XRPUSD overview

• Asset: XRPUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1250 and 1.1430
• Key support levels: 1.0450 and 1.0000

XRP trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.0450 support level would confirm continued selling pressure and open the way for a decline towards 1.0000. Despite the improvement in the fundamental backdrop around Ripple and XRP, the market remains sensitive to US dollar dynamics and overall demand for risk assets.

• Take Profit: 1.0000
• Stop Loss: 1.0650

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1250 resistance level would signal another upward wave. Additional support for buyers may come from positive news around the implementation of Ripple solutions in Europe and the continued decline in XRP exchange reserves.

• Take Profit: 1.1430
• Stop Loss: 1.1225

Risk factors

The main risk to the XRPUSD upside scenario remains the continued tight Fed policy and weak inflows of fresh capital into the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, Ripple’s progress under MiCA regulation, the growth of long-term coin holding, and the reduction of XRP supply on exchanges may support investor interest and improve the asset’s outlook.

Summary

After testing the 1.1817 level, the XRP price continues to fall despite positive news regarding licensing in the EU. Today’s technical analysis of XRPUSD is not favourable for XRP, with the price potentially edging lower towards 1.0450.

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