The Fed failed to support silver as XAGUSD remains near its yearly lows

XAGUSD prices remain below 54 USD, hovering near their lowest levels in almost a year after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. The market is awaiting PCE data, while high oil prices continue to sustain inflation risks. Prices currently stand at 53.57 USD. For further details, see our analysis for 29 October 2026.

XAGUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Fed held its interest rates steady, but two policymakers supported a 25-basis-point hike
• High oil prices continue to sustain inflation risks and expectations of possible policy tightening in December
• XAGUSD forecast for 29 October 2026: 52.50

Fundamental analysis

Silver remains below 54 USD, hovering near its lowest levels in nearly a year following the Federal Reserve meeting. As expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged but gave the market no clear guidance on its next move.

However, two Fed policymakers supported a 25-basis-point rate hike, heightening expectations that the central bank could resume monetary policy tightening as early as December, particularly if inflationary pressures persist.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also raised the possibility of reducing the number of interest rate meetings from eight to six per year. Such a move could increase uncertainty about the future policy path and make each central bank decision more significant for financial markets.

Investors are now turning their attention to the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Stronger data could increase the likelihood of a December rate hike and put additional pressure on silver.

On the geopolitical front, markets are assessing new diplomatic efforts to prevent a further escalation of the Middle East conflict. However, oil prices remain high, sustaining inflation risks and supporting expectations of tighter monetary policy.

The XAGUSD forecast for 29 October 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

XAGUSD remains in a downtrend and continues to move along the lower part of a descending channel. Following a sharp decline towards 53.00, prices entered a consolidation phase but remain below the middle Bollinger Band. Today's XAGUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 52.50.

MACD remains below zero, although its line has risen above the signal line, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is also generating a moderate recovery signal, with %K above %D. This allows for a local rebound but does not yet change the overall bearish structure.

A breakout below the 53.40 support level and the lower boundary of the current range would further confirm the primary scenario. A sustained move above the 54.40 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario, increasing the likelihood of a correction towards 55.40 and then 56.45.

XAGUSD overview

• Asset: XAGUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 54.40 and 55.40
• Key support levels: 53.40 and 52.50

XAGUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below a local support level, followed by a consolidation below 53.40, would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish XAGUSD scenario remains a more dovish market reaction to PCE data and a further weakening of expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike. Falling US Treasury yields or renewed demand for safe-haven assets could also bolster silver. A consolidation above 54.40 would weaken the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of an upward correction.

Summary

The XAGUSD forecast for 29 October 2026 points to continued bearish momentum, with a potential downside target at 52.50 and further confirmation should prices break below the 53.40 level.

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