Silver continues to fall: XAGUSD revisits November last year's lows

The prospect of further monetary policy tightening is supporting US bond yields and raising the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals. Prices are currently hovering at 48.94 USD. For more details, see our analysis for 3 November 2026.

XAGUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates within the 3.75%–4.00% range
• As of 2 November, market participants estimated the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December at around 77%, down from 80% a week earlier
• XAGUSD forecast for 3 November 2026: 43.90

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady within the 3.75%–4.00% range. However, two FOMC members supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The central bank noted steady economic growth, high investment activity, and persistent inflationary pressure. This Fed stance creates unfavourable conditions for silver.

Silver's recovery on 2 November was primarily driven by a sharp fall in oil prices amid talks between Iran and Qatar aimed at ending the military conflict in the Middle East. However, the geopolitical factor remains mixed. Further de-escalation could support silver by reducing inflation risks, but it could also reduce investment demand for safe-haven assets. Conversely, a renewed conflict could trigger a rise in oil prices and bond yields, increasing pressure on XAGUSD.

According to the World Silver Survey 2026 report published in April, the global silver market remains in a structural deficit. The Silver Institute forecasts a deficit of 46.3 million troy ounces in 2026. At the same time, industrial silver consumption is expected to decline by 3%. The main reason is reduced silver use in solar panels due to technological optimisation and substitution with cheaper materials.

The XAGUSD forecast for 3 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

XAGUSD remains in a downtrend. On the D1 timeframe, a resistance level has formed at 54.55, while support lies at 48.85. Prices have fallen to their November 2025 lows. Before declining further, they may enter a sideways trend.

A breakout below the 48.85 support level would confirm the main scenario. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if prices consolidate above the 54.55 resistance level. Such a signal would increase the likelihood of a correction towards 58.75.

XAGUSD overview

• Asset: XAGUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 54.55
• Key support levels: 48.85

XAGUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the support level, followed by a consolidation below 48.85, would confirm continued downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAGUSD remain further tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy, a stronger US dollar, and rising US Treasury yields. Sustained US economic growth and persistent inflationary pressure could force the central bank to keep interest rates elevated for longer or continue raising them. A slowdown in global industrial activity, particularly in China, and reduced silver consumption in solar energy due to technological optimisation could put additional pressure on silver.

Summary

The fundamental outlook for silver remains mixed. Easing inflation concerns, declining real US bond yields, and the structural deficit in physical silver create conditions for a recovery in prices. However, resilient US economic data and the high likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes continue to limit the upside potential.

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