XAUUSD falls to its lowest levels since June this year

Gold has broken out of its sideways range and resumed its decline in line with the broader trend. Prices currently stand at 4,022 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 23 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds fell to approximately 4.97%
• US initial jobless claims came in at 194 thousand
• XAUUSD forecast for 23 October 2026: 4,120

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 23 October 2026, indicates that the fundamental backdrop has deteriorated significantly. Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 194 thousand, compared to a forecast of 200 thousand, reaching its lowest level in almost three months. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose to 1.728 million.

A low layoff rate indicates the resilience of the US labour market and gives the Federal Reserve more scope to combat inflation by maintaining tight monetary policy. For XAUUSD, these figures are predominantly negative, as they reduce the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut.

Developments in the global oil market are adding to pressure on XAUUSD. On 22 October, oil prices rose by approximately 3%, reaching a five-month high following Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia that heightened concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies.

The XAUUSD forecast for 23 October 2026 takes into account that rising inflation limits the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy and increases the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. Market participants currently largely expect rates to remain unchanged at the 27–28 October meeting. However, according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike in December is estimated at approximately 78%.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, XAUUSD prices broke below the 4,065 support level, while resistance formed at 4,145. A new support level has not yet formed. On the H4 chart, local support is located at 3,985, with resistance at 4,035. As XAUUSD is trading in a downtrend, the downside target is 3,900 USD.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also considers an alternative scenario involving a rise towards 4,145 USD. However, prices are unlikely to break above the current resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,035 and 4,145
• Key support levels: 4,065 and 3,985

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the 3,985 USD support level would signal downward momentum and create conditions for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAUUSD remain uncertainty over the Fed's future monetary policy, inflation developments in the US, changes in US government bond yields, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. Persistently high inflation and growing expectations of interest rate hikes could increase pressure on gold and trigger a further decline in prices. A reduction in investment demand for the precious metal could be an additional negative factor.

Summary

The combination of fundamental and technical factors indicates a continued elevated likelihood of further declines in XAUUSD quotes. Accelerating US inflation, strengthening expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and the resilience of the US labour market are creating an unfavourable environment for the precious metal. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have so far failed to provide sufficient support for gold. XAUUSD technical analysis also points to a decline towards 3,900 USD.

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