Investors await the Fed's decision as XAUUSD trades below the psychological 4,000 level

Gold lost around 4% of its value last week, and on 23 October, prices fell to 3,975 USD per troy ounce, reaching their lowest levels since July. Quotes currently stand at 3,992 USD. Find out more in our analysis for 27 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• Yesterday, oil prices began to fall following reports of Qatar's mediation efforts to ease tensions
• According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased 39 tonnes of gold in August, bringing total purchases since the start of the year to 170 tonnes
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 October 2026: 3,900

Fundamental analysis

Today's XAUUSD price forecast for 27 October 2026 indicates that the impact of geopolitical factors on gold remains mixed. On the one hand, mounting international tensions drive demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, a further increase in oil prices could heighten inflation risks, raise expectations of interest rate hikes, and consequently put pressure on gold.

Movements in the US dollar are another factor affecting gold. The dollar is under pressure from declining US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is currently hovering around 5%, down from 5.31% earlier in October. This decline is partly driven by increased demand for safe-haven government bonds amid stock market instability.

The XAUUSD forecast for 27 October takes into account that US labour market data provides some grounds for a recovery in gold. According to the report published on 2 October, US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by just 29 thousand jobs in September, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.2%. Weak employment figures limit the Federal Reserve's scope for further aggressive interest rate hikes.

Technical outlook

On the D1 chart, XAUUSD has established a support level at 3,975 USD, while resistance has formed at 4,145 USD. On the H4 chart, local support lies at 3,985 USD, with resistance at 4,035 USD.

Given the ongoing downtrend, a further decline in XAUUSD prices remains the most likely scenario. If prices break below the local support level at 3,985 USD, they could fall towards 3,900 USD.

An alternative scenario envisages an upward correction, with a potential rise towards 4,145 USD. This would require a breakout above the nearest resistance level at 4,035 USD. However, the likelihood of a sustained breakout remains limited, as sellers continue to dominate the market.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,035 and 4,145
• Key support levels: 3,975 and 3,985

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Following a correction towards the 4,035 USD resistance level, prices could resume their downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAUUSD remain uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, US inflation trends, changes in US government bond yields, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate. Persistently high inflation and growing expectations of interest rate hikes could add to pressure on gold, pushing prices lower.

Summary

In the short term, the balance of fundamental and technical factors remains predominantly negative for gold. Elevated US inflation, expectations of further monetary policy tightening, and persistently high government bond yields are limiting XAUUSD's recovery potential. Until the Fed announces its decision on 28 October, gold may remain highly volatile without establishing a sustained new trend.

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