PCE will be a decisive test for XAUUSD: inflation could dash hopes of a recovery

Gold is falling again after an attempt to recover, as markets await US data. The current price is 4,033 USD. Read more in our analysis for 28 October 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Fed may maintain its tight monetary policy.
• The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is due for release on 29 October
• XAUUSD forecast for 28 October 2026: 3,900

Fundamental analysis

Today's XAUUSD price forecast for 28 October 2026 shows that gold is forming a downward wave after an attempted recovery and is testing the 4,030 USD level.

The Fed may maintain its tight monetary policy. The market largely expects rates to remain unchanged at the current meeting, but the probability of a rate rise in December is estimated at around 84.0%. The prospect of high interest rates makes gold less attractive, as the metal does not generate interest income.

Expectations of further Fed policy tightening are supporting the USD. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, the recovery in XAUUSD prices may be limited.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, one of the Fed's key indicators, is due for release on 29 October. Accelerating inflation could put further pressure on gold, while weaker data may improve the metal's outlook.

The XAUUSD forecast for 28 October takes into account that the fundamental backdrop for gold remains moderately negative. Expensive oil, a strong dollar and expectations that rates will remain high are limiting demand. A recovery remains possible, but the market's near-term direction will largely depend on the outcome of the Fed meeting and new US inflation data.

Technical outlook

On the XAUUSD H4 chart, the price has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. As the pattern's signal plays out, prices may form a downward wave. Given that XAUUSD is trading within a descending channel, the downside target is support at 3,965 USD.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests a second scenario, involving a price correction towards 4,065 USD followed by a continuation of the downtrend after testing resistance.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: Bearish
• Key resistance levels: 4,065 and 4,145
• Key support levels: 3,965 and 3,900

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

Following a correction towards resistance at 4,065 USD, prices may continue their downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAUUSD remain uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future monetary policy, US inflation trends, changes in US Treasury yields and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate.

Summary

While awaiting US data and the Fed's interest rate decision, gold is losing ground. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests that prices may decline towards 3,965 USD following a correction.

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