Oil plunges 7%, but gold fails to benefit: what is preventing XAUUSD from recovering?

Record inflows into ETFs in Q3 have failed to prevent XAUUSD prices from falling. Quotes are currently hovering at 3,920 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 3 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Spot gold prices fell by around 0.5%
• Political uncertainty could boost interest in safe-haven assets, including gold
• Inflows into physically backed gold ETFs reached a record 31 billion USD in Q3
• XAUUSD forecast for 3 November 2026: 3,850

Fundamental analysis

Today's XAUUSD price forecast for 3 November 2026 shows that spot gold prices dropped by around 0.5% to 3,926 USD per ounce, after rising by more than 2% the previous day. Investors continue to reduce their positions following last week's extensive sell-off.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike are limiting the upside potential. The likelihood of a US interest rate hike in December is estimated at around 74.0%. Persistently high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and support the dollar.

Oil prices are falling, easing inflation concerns. Oil quotes dropped more than 7.0% early in the week amid diplomatic contacts between Iran and Qatar, slightly reducing fears of another wave of inflation and helping gold recover the previous day.

The US midterm congressional elections could affect expectations regarding fiscal policy, public debt, and the future trajectory of the economy. Political uncertainty could boost interest in safe-haven assets, including gold.

According to the World Gold Council, inflows into physically backed gold ETFs reached a record 31 billion USD in Q3, while total fund holdings rose to 4,256 tonnes, indicating sustained institutional investor interest in the metal.

The XAUUSD forecast for 3 November 2026 takes into account that the primary obstacles to a recovery in XAUUSD prices are expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and demand for the dollar. At the same time, falling oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained investment interest could limit further declines. In the near term, key factors will be the US political situation, inflation expectations, and comments from Fed officials.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and could continue their downward wave as the pattern's signal plays out. Since XAUUSD remains within a descending channel, the downside target could be the 3,850 USD support level.

However, today's XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests an alternative scenario in which prices correct towards 3,960 USD and continue their downward momentum after testing the resistance level.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 3,960 and 4,085
• Key support levels: 3,895 and 3,850

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

After breaking below the 3,895 USD support level, prices could continue their downtrend.

Risk factors

The main risk factors for XAUUSD are further Fed monetary policy tightening, movements in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and geopolitical risks.

Summary

Gold continues to lose ground following its earlier rise, despite falling oil prices and record capital inflows into ETFs. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 3,850 USD support level.

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