Inflation weighs on gold: XAUUSD could fall below 4,000 again

Rising government bond yields are making dollar-denominated assets more attractive than gold, which does not generate interest income. Prices currently stand at 4,059 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 11 November 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, above expectations of 0.3%, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%
• The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December rose to around 90%
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 November 2026: 3,800

Fundamental analysis

Gold prices came under significant pressure following the release of US macroeconomic data. The key event was the publication of October consumer inflation figures. The CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, while core CPI increased by 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%. Despite a slowdown in headline inflation relative to September, the figures indicate that price pressures in the US economy remain persistent. The market reacted with a stronger US dollar, higher Treasury yields, and falling gold prices.

Changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy are putting additional pressure on the precious metal. Following the CPI release, financial market participants almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, while also increasing the probability of more substantial monetary policy tightening. Such expectations weigh on gold, as higher interest rates and government bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.

Nevertheless, the long-term fundamental factors supporting gold remain in place. According to World Gold Council data, central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026, up 42% from the same period last year. Total purchases in the first nine months reached 675 tonnes. Investment flows into gold-backed ETFs also support the precious metal, with their holdings increasing by 211 tonnes in Q3.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 November 2026 is bearish.

Technical outlook

XAUUSD is once again heading towards the lower boundary of its sideways channel. On the D1 chart, a resistance level has formed at 4,145, while a support level lies at 3,895. On the H4 chart, local support is at 4,010, while resistance coincides with the D1 level. Prices could establish a downtrend if they break below 3,895. Today's XAUUSD forecast suggests a further decline, with a potential target at 3,800.

The main scenario would be invalidated if prices consolidate above the 4,010 support level. Such a signal would indicate an acceleration of the upward move towards 4,145.

XAUUSD overview

• Asset: XAUUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance level: 4,145
• Key support level: 3,895

XAUUSD trading scenario for today

A breakout below the local support level followed by consolidation below 4,010.00 would confirm a correction and set the stage for opening short positions.

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish scenario is a possible shift in market participants' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy. Despite the strong inflation data, weaker subsequent macroeconomic indicators could lead to lower US government bond yields and a weaker dollar. In particular, the release of the PPI data on 13 November could significantly impact market expectations.

Summary

The fundamental backdrop largely favours the US dollar and weighs on gold prices. Higher-than-expected US inflation, resilient labour market data, and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are setting the stage for a continued downward correction in XAUUSD.

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