DE 40 forecast: the index hits a new all-time high

The DE 40 stock index continues to trade in an uptrend and has reached a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s CPI for June fell by 0.3%
• Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of German inflation data may be a moderately positive factor for the DE 40 index, but the effect is mixed. The actual CPI reading was −0.3% month-on-month, compared to the forecast of 0.0% and the previous reading of −0.2%. This means that monthly consumer price dynamics came in weaker than expected, while inflationary pressure in the eurozone’s largest economy continues to decline. For the stock market, such a signal typically strengthens the case for looser financial conditions, as lower inflation reduces the probability of tight monetary policy and supports expectations of further interest rate cuts.

For the DE 40, this may provide support, especially if investors assess the data through the lens of a future decline in borrowing costs. Lower inflation may improve stock valuations, as companies gain access to cheaper financing and investors become more inclined to buy stocks rather than fixed-income instruments. In this scenario, the index may get an additional boost, especially if the broader picture for business activity and corporate earnings does not deteriorate at the same time.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has broken above the nearest resistance level at 25,455.0, while the key support level is located near 24,570.0. Quotes reached a new all-time high. However, the medium-term uptrend remains intact, with a new resistance level likely to form. In this scenario, the nearest upside target is located at 26,370.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could push the index down to 24,035.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: if the price consolidates above the breached resistance level at 25,455.0, the index could climb to 26,370.0

Summary

Overall, this news is supportive for the German stock market, but with an important caveat. If investors perceive the decline in the CPI as a controlled slowdown in inflation without a sharp deterioration in the economy, the DE 40 may receive support. If the data is interpreted as a sign of weak demand and the risk of economic cooling, index growth may remain limited, while defensive and rate-sensitive sectors may gain an advantage within the market. The nearest upside target remains 26,370.0.

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