EURUSD Forecast 2026–2027: Technical Analysis, Price Levels & Predictions

Disclaimer: This article is prepared on the basis of reputable financial sources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research; however, economic changes may significantly affect market conditions and alter the EURUSD forecast. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making financial decisions.

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1220 as of 21 October 2026, below both the 65 and 200 moving averages on the daily chart. After a sharp decline the pair has spent the last week in a corrective phase. The two central banks are moving in the same direction at different levels: the Federal Reserve raised its rate to 4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023, while the European Central Bank raised its rate to 2.65% on 10 September. Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September and US CPI rose to 3.7%. Both central banks meet next week, the Fed on 27-28 October and the ECB on 28-29 October. The main support is 1.1000. A close below it would extend the decline toward 1.0505 and then parity at 1.0000. A close above 1.1500 would be the first sign that buyers are returning.

Key takeaways: EURUSD forecast

EURUSD technical analysis

EURUSD fell from about 1.17 in August to a low near 1.1111 in October and has since moved into a corrective phase around 1.1220. On the daily chart price sits below both moving averages, and both averages slope down. The weekly chart shows price at the lower Bollinger band, which can produce a rebound, while the monthly timeframe stays on Sell. Short-term indicators are turning up from oversold levels, which makes the next move a test of the 1.1500 resistance or of the 1.1000 support.

Indicator summary

Daily timeframe (D1)

On the D1 chart, EURUSD forms a correction after breaking below the EMA65 and EMA200. Both averages have sloped down since the EMA65 crossed below the EMA200, and price has stayed under them. Over the last week price has been correcting after the fall. RSI(14) is near 41 and keeps moving up from the 30 level, which points to a possible start of an upward move. The MACD histogram is below zero and shrinking, and the signal line has left the histogram zone and is also moving toward zero.

The trend is still down with periodic corrections, but two indicators already signal a possible change. A cross of the EMA65 above the EMA200 would be the confirmation for long positions. Until then the bounce stays a correction inside the downward structure.

H4 timeframe

On the H4 chart, EURUSD trades near 1.1220, around the EMA65 and below the EMA200. The averages have stopped falling together: the EMA65 is flattening under the price, and the pair is consolidating while it waits for a trigger. The Stochastic oscillator is falling toward the 20 level, a signal for a possible decline in the near term.

The first target for a decline is support at 1.1180. From there the pair can bounce and form an upward wave toward 1.1500. A deeper correction toward 1.1000 cannot be ruled out before any rise starts.

Weekly timeframe (W)

On the weekly chart, EURUSD is testing 1.1220 at the lower Bollinger band, which points to a possible rebound as an upward wave. For now price is forming a corrective wave. The weekly MACD histogram is below the zero level, and the signal line sits near the histogram, also below zero.

In the long term price can form a growth wave. A return to 1.1500 and a weekly close above it would be the signal for a new upward move.

Trading scenarios

Key EURUSD price levels

The levels below come from structural analysis of the Daily and Weekly charts: swing highs and lows, Bollinger band references and round numbers. 1.1500 is the first barrier above the price, and 1.1805 is the level the bull case needs to reach next.

Psychological levels: round numbers 1.0000, 1.1200, 1.1400 and 1.1500 have a history of stopping price several times before it breaks through. When a round level fails to break, it often becomes the point where the trend changes direction.

What drives the EURUSD exchange rate

ECB policy

The European Central Bank raised its key rate to 2.65% on 10 September, its second hike of 2026. The Governing Council added 25 basis points unanimously. It said the Middle East conflict keeps generating inflation pressure and that inflation will stay well above target for a long time. President Christine Lagarde stressed that decisions will be taken meeting by meeting, with no commitment on the rate path. The next meeting is on 28-29 October 2026.

The ECB returned to tightening after eight rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. Eurozone inflation reached 3.8%, and as of 5 October markets priced about a 20% chance of a hike in October and about 80% in December. Markets now expect another hike in December, although the decision is not set. The talk of easing is over, and the debate has moved to how many hikes the ECB will deliver.

Fed policy

The Federal Reserve rate is 4.00%. On 16 September the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise it by 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023. The statement said inflation remains elevated and that the decision supports a more timely return to the 2% goal. The minutes showed that 16 of the 18 FOMC members see at least one more hike before the end of the year. Under Chair Kevin Warsh the Fed has moved from waiting to active tightening, and markets that discussed cuts in August now price further hikes. The next meeting is on 27-28 October 2026.

The gap with the ECB, whose rate is 2.65%, supports the dollar. Expectations became less clear after inflation accelerated. According to CME FedWatch on 20 October, the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the October meeting was about 50.4%, and the probability of no change about 49.6%. These are market expectations, not a Fed decision.

Inflation gap

Eurozone inflation accelerated from 3.2% to 3.8%, mainly because of higher energy prices. This adds pressure on the ECB and raises the chance of further tightening. In the US, CPI rose from 3.4% to 3.7%, and core inflation rose to 2.6%. Higher gasoline prices increase inflation risks and may keep the Fed rate high for longer, or lead the Fed to consider another hike.

The gap in headline inflation is about 0.1 percentage point, with eurozone inflation slightly higher. US CPI and eurozone HICP use different methodologies, so the comparison is approximate. The inflation gap does not give EURUSD a clear edge. Faster price growth in the eurozone can support the euro if markets expect a tougher ECB, while high US inflation limits the room for Fed easing and can support the dollar. The direction of the pair depends on which central bank markets expect to hike more and for longer.

Growth gap

Forecasts for the third quarter point to US GDP growth above 4% annualised, or above 1% quarter on quarter, while BNP Paribas estimates eurozone growth at about 0.4% quarter on quarter. These are forecasts, since third-quarter GDP is not published yet. The most recent published figures are 0.5% for the eurozone and 2.2% for the US. US growth is about 2.5 times faster than European growth in the narrow quarterly view.

A stronger US economy supports the dollar in two ways. Yield spreads favour the US, where growth is stronger and the Fed rate is 4.00% against 2.65% at the ECB. The energy shock and geopolitical tension also hit the eurozone harder than the US, which makes the dollar the safer holding in portfolios. The US economy is also supported by AI investment spending, and private final sales show steady momentum. The eurozone economy is growing, only too slowly and unevenly to compete with US growth, so a strong quarterly eurozone print does not automatically weaken the dollar's advantage.

Dollar index and geopolitics

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is near 101.85. After rising to 18-month highs it pulled back slightly, but it remains at an elevated level. Expensive energy and the conflict around Iran support demand for safe-haven assets and the dollar. For EURUSD, political and budget instability in France is an extra negative factor, because it raises French government bond yields and puts pressure on the euro. US trade tariffs also keep inflation risks alive and support expectations of tougher Fed policy. In the short term the balance of risks stays tilted toward the dollar, although lower geopolitical tension could weaken this effect.

What could push EURUSD lower

Bank forecasts

Major banks published their EURUSD targets for the end of 2026 in September and October. The targets range from 1.1000 to 1.1700, and the latest revisions by ING and Nordea moved lower. Targets older than three months are not included.

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