EURUSD Forecast 2026–2027: Technical Analysis, Price Levels & Predictions

Disclaimer: This article is prepared on the basis of reputable financial sources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research; however, economic changes may significantly affect market conditions and alter the EURUSD forecast. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making financial decisions.

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1257 as of 4 November 2026, below both the 65 and 200 moving averages on the daily chart. The pair is recovering from the late-October low near 1.1110 after a sharp decline. Both central banks kept rates unchanged last week: the Federal Reserve held its range at 3.75-4.00% on 28 October, with two members voting for a hike, and the European Central Bank held its main rate at 2.65% on 29 October. Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September and moved above US CPI at 3.7%. The next decisions come in December, the Fed on 8-9 December and the ECB on 16-17 December. The main support is 1.1000. A close below it would extend the decline toward 1.0505 and then parity at 1.0000. A close above 1.1500 would be the first sign that buyers are returning.

Key takeaways: EURUSD forecast

EURUSD technical analysis

EURUSD fell from about 1.17 in August to a low near 1.1110 at the end of October and is now correcting higher near 1.1257. On the daily chart price sits below both moving averages, and both averages slope down. The weekly chart shows price below the lower Bollinger band, which can produce a rebound, while the monthly overall signal is Neutral. Short-term indicators are turning up, which makes the next move a test of the 1.1500 resistance or of the 1.1000 support.

Indicator summary

Daily timeframe (D1)

On the D1 chart, EURUSD keeps declining gradually after breaking below the EMA65 and EMA200. Both averages have sloped down since the EMA65 crossed below the EMA200, and price has stayed under them. Over the last week price has been correcting after the fall. RSI(14) has risen from the 30 area to about 52, which points to a possible start of an upward move. The MACD histogram is below zero and shrinking, and the MACD line has moved above the signal line, also heading toward zero.

The trend is still down with periodic corrections, but two indicators already signal a possible change. A cross of the EMA65 above the EMA200 would be the confirmation for long positions. Until then the bounce stays a correction inside the downward structure.

H4 timeframe

On the H4 chart, EURUSD trades near 1.1257, above the EMA65 and just under the EMA200. The EMA65 has flattened and turned slightly up, while the EMA200 still slopes down, and the pair is consolidating while it waits for a trigger. The Stochastic oscillator is above the 80 level, a signal for a possible pullback in the near term.

The first target for a pullback is support at 1.1180. If the euro keeps gaining, price can then bounce and form an upward wave toward 1.1500. A deeper correction toward 1.1000 cannot be ruled out before any rise starts.

Weekly timeframe (W)

On the weekly chart, EURUSD is testing 1.1257 below the lower Bollinger band, which points to a possible rebound as an upward wave. For now price is forming a corrective wave. The weekly MACD histogram is below the zero level, and the signal line is also below zero.

In the long term price can form a growth wave. A return to 1.1500 and a weekly close above it would be the signal for a new upward move.

Trading scenarios

Key EURUSD price levels

The levels below come from structural analysis of the Daily and Weekly charts: swing highs and lows, Bollinger band references and round numbers. 1.1500 is the first barrier above the price, and 1.1805 is the level the bull case needs to reach next.

Psychological levels: round numbers 1.0000, 1.1200, 1.1400 and 1.1500 have a history of stopping price several times before it breaks through. When a round level fails to break, it often becomes the point where the trend changes direction.

What drives the EURUSD exchange rate

ECB policy

The European Central Bank raised rates twice in 2026, in June and September, and on 29 October kept them unchanged by a unanimous vote. The deposit rate is 2.50%, the main refinancing rate 2.65% and the marginal lending rate 2.90%. The Governing Council discussed another hike but held because of the energy shock: eurozone inflation stayed at 3.8% in September, with energy prices up 18.8%. On 29 October President Christine Lagarde also announced that she will step down early, on 7 February 2027.

The next ECB meeting is on 16-17 December 2026. Markets price a 75-90% chance of a hike in December. These are market expectations, not an ECB decision.

Fed policy

At its meeting on 27-28 October the FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00%. The vote was 10-2: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 basis point hike. The statement line "The Committee will deliver price stability" and the tone of Chair Kevin Warsh at the press conference confirmed that fighting inflation comes first, after almost six years of elevated price growth.

The next meeting is on 8-9 December 2026. According to CME FedWatch, futures price about a 73% chance of a hike in December, and the rate can reach a peak near 4.13% by March 2027. These are market expectations, not a Fed decision.

Inflation gap

Inflation rose again in September: 3.8% in the eurozone, the highest since September 2023, and 3.7% in the US. In August the US was still ahead, at 3.4% against 3.2% in the eurozone, so the gap has now turned in the euro's favour. Eurozone inflation has accelerated every month since February, from 1.7% in January, while US CPI has stayed in a 3.4-3.7% corridor since May 2026. US CPI and eurozone HICP use different methodologies, so the comparison is approximate.

The shift in the inflation gap reduces the pressure on the euro. The ECB has to catch up, while the Fed is closer to the end of its cycle. A narrower rate gap through faster ECB tightening is a positive factor for EURUSD.

Growth gap

The economic gap between the US and the eurozone stays wide in favour of the US. According to the Eurostat flash estimate, eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter and by 1.3% year on year. In the US, the BEA advance estimate of 29 October showed growth of 3.4% annualised, about 0.8% quarter on quarter, up from 2.2% in the second quarter.

In quarterly terms the US economy is growing twice as fast as the eurozone, with the US accelerating while Europe slows. Stronger US growth supports the dollar and the expectation that the Fed keeps its tough stance. This outweighs the inflation argument and keeps fundamental pressure on EURUSD.

Dollar index and geopolitics

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 101.39, its lowest level so far in November. Pressure on the dollar increased after the Democrats won the US midterm elections to Congress. Investors fear tighter control over the technology sector and slower economic growth, and US Treasury yields also declined.

Mixed signals about talks between the US and Iran add uncertainty. For the euro, risks remain from Europe's energy dependence and France's budget problems. In the short term a weaker DXY can support EURUSD, while geopolitical tension can bring back demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

What could push EURUSD lower

Bank forecasts

Major banks published their EURUSD targets for the end of 2026 in September and October. The targets range from 1.1000 to 1.1700, and the latest revisions by ING and Nordea moved lower. Targets older than three months are not included.

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