DE 40 has room to rise, but the news is getting in the way

The DE 40 opened Monday lower at 26,421. The index is underperforming other European benchmarks. Find out more in our analysis for 31 August 2026.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• The DE 40 index is declining on Monday after a period of gains
• Geopolitics and inflation are weighing on stocks
• USDJPY forecast for 31 August 2026: 26,150 or 26,680

DE 40 fundamental analysis

On Monday, the DE 40 index broke a four-day winning streak that took the market to record highs last week. The German index has nevertheless underperformed most other European markets.

Sentiment deteriorated after a renewed exchange of strikes between the US and Iran in the Middle East, as well as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh in Jackson Hole. Geopolitical tensions and a tougher stance on inflation pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks.

Investors are also paying close attention to fresh inflation data. Most DAX sectors are trading lower, with industrials posting the steepest decline.

Among individual stocks, Siemens Energy is down more than 4%, while MTU Aero Engines and Heidelberg Materials are each losing more than 1%.

The DE 40 outlook is cautiously positive.

DE 40 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the DE 40 maintains an upward structure. After correcting towards the 25,900 area, the index recovered and is now trading around 26,421, remaining above the middle Bollinger Band. The sequence of higher lows remains, although the price has once again approached the upper part of the local range, where buyers will need to confirm the strength of the momentum.

The nearest resistance level is located at 26,680, and a breakout above it would open the way towards 26,945. The support level is at 26,150, with the 25,890 area below. As long as the DE 40 remains above 26,150, buyers retain the advantage, and the current decline can be viewed as part of the upward structure.

The MACD is in positive territory, while the histogram is expanding, confirming a recovery in upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has risen towards the 80 level, so a local pause or correction may occur before a new upward move. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 26,150–26,680 range with a moderately positive bias.

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A sustained move above the 26,680 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for further DE 40 growth.

• Current price: 26,421
• Entry level: 26,685
• Take profit: 26,945
• Stop loss: 26,520
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.6

Valid until 8:00 AM (server time, UTC+3) on 3 September 2026

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 26,150 support level would indicate a deeper correction and create conditions for a decline in the DE 40.

• Entry level: 26,145
• Take profit: 25,890
• Stop loss: 26,315
• Risk-to-reward ratio: approximately 1:1.5

Valid until 8:00 AM (server time, UTC+3) on 3 September 2026

Summary

The DE 40 index is declining after four previous sessions of gains. The DE 40 forecast for today, 31 August 2026, suggests sideways movement between 26,150 and 26,680 with a moderate upward bias.

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